Your Future Rotation: Part One

It seems unlikely that David Purcey won't join the rotation in one of the back three starter spots, which will mark the potential of a first full season in the majors. Purcey was drafted in 2004, and was called up for good last year on Jul 26th to face Seattle. Prior to that, he threw four walk laden innings against Detroit, and was shelled by the Phillies in three painful innings of work. One his return to the bigs, Purcey had good control, striking out four and allowing only three runs in six innings.

Purcey would prove maddingly inconsistent for the next two months, alternating quality outings with blow outs. His control improved dramatically, recording 55Ks verses just 18BBs in that period, and he managed to get the ball down against power bats, reducing his vulnerability to the home run. Despite a 3-6 record and an ERA of 5.54, Purcey proved to be fairly unlucky on the mound, giving up hits in batches and surrendering a lot of runs in the process.

Assuming things even out, Purcey's ERA should improve in 2009. Purcey showed some moments of brilliance against some very tough teams. In fact, his two best outings were against Tampa Bay, a team of very powerful bats. In two starts against Tampa Bay, he gave up just a single run, limiting them to 11 hits, and recording 18Ks verses 3BBs. When at his best, Purcey lives and dies by his control, keeping the ball down and working both sides of the plate to keep hitters off balance. While his low 90s fastball and his sinker are his main pitches, Purcey changes speeds relatively well, mixing in a slurve-like curve, a solid changeup and a cutter.

While Purcey has none of the buzz that New York or Boston's young starters has, there's every reason to believe that Purcey could turn out to be a solid part of the rotation. His mechanics are sound, he's got a good range of pitches he can mix effectively, and his history suggests that he's got the potential to eat a lot of innings. As long as he can develop a little more consistency with his control between outings, 2009 could be a break out year for him.

Dock Ellis Passes Away

Dock Ellis died yesterday at the age of 63, following seven months on the list for a liver transplant. A true artifact of the '70s, Ellis was part of rampant drug and alcohol abuse in baseball at the time. He's most famous for pitching a no-hitter while under the influence of LSD and amphetamines.

His own account of the no-hitter:

"I was in Los Angeles, and the team was playing in San Diego , but I didn't know it. I had taken LSD..... I thought it was an off-day, that's how come I had it in me. I took the LSD at noon. At 1pm, his girlfriend and trip partner looked at the paper and said, "Dock, you're pitching today!"

"That's when it was $9.50 to fly to San Diego. She got me to the airport at 3:30. I got there at 4:30, and the game started at 6:05pm. It was a twi-night doubleheader.

I can only remember bits and pieces of the game. I was psyched. I had a feeling of euphoria.

I was zeroed in on the (catcher's) glove, but I didn't hit the glove too much. I remember hitting a couple of batters and the bases were loaded two or three times.

The ball was small sometimes, the ball was large sometimes, sometimes I saw the catcher, sometimes I didn't. Sometimes I tried to stare the hitter down and throw while I was looking at him. I chewed my gum until it turned to powder. They say I had about three to four fielding chances. I remember diving out of the way of a ball I thought was a line drive. I jumped, but the ball wasn't hit hard and never reached me."

You've got to admire an original approach to early forms of PEDs.

See You In 2010 Everybody!

The first real post, and I'm sober. Kind of a shame really.

Welcome to my new Jays baseball blog. I trialed it this summer to get a hang of the formatting and such, largely consisting of learning to be happy with my limited sophomoric efforts at them, and decided to wait until the darkest days of the Winter Meetings before launching for real.

They say it is always darkest before the dawn. What they forget is that it's always darkest right after the sun blinks out of existence, never to return again, leaving us to die bewildered and frozen before the next heartbeat. If you read the news about the Toronto Blue Jays these days, it's hard to find an even bleaker analogy to fit the stories about Toronto's chances in 2009.

Fortunately, despite the doom-mongerers, it's actually not quite as bad as that. It's not exactly a whole lot better, but at least there's a few vague spots of light for wistful dreaming about 2009, even against a slightly more experienced Tampa Bay team, the financially irresponsible erection of the New York Yankees, the equally loathsome but now more insufferable Boston Red Sox, and the believed mythical beast; a competitive Baltimore Orioles.

The largest blow for the Jays from 2008 to 2009 will obviously be in the starting rotation, which began the season as possibly the strongest in baseball, and will likely the end the Winter Meetings with Halladay wondering how the hell Litsch's locker is now next to his. The loss of Marcum to Tommy John surgery, Burnett's almost certain departure, and McGowan's earliest return date a month into the season is pretty much the main reason why 2009 is being considered a write off before the season even starts.

However, this isn't necessarily the case. One of the things the Jays have had for the last two years is a number of young pitchers considered to be all but banging on the major league level. The emergence of McGowan, Litsch and Marcum didn't happen until a number of reclamation projects (Ohka, Thomson, Zambrano, and Towers) all imploded on the mound and forced the organization to slot in younger pitchers and let them work through the transition. Guys like Purcey, Cecil, and Richmond will get a shot at the rotation, and frankly, I'd rather see the risk taken on proving a young player that has potential to grow, as opposed to seeing what scraping the bottom of the injury barrel might provide, in signing like Clement and possibly Pavano.

There is also the likelihood that a weaker starting rotation will get a little more offensive support in 2009. Despite some resurgence in the second half, the Jays woefully underperformed their individual and team averages at the plate, and unless two-thirds of the team suddenly went over the cliff in declines, you have to consider that even without any moves, the Jays can't possibly fail to post better offense numbers than 2009. With Lind now firmly installed in the lineup, Snider potentially being ready to make the transition, the Jays have some power creeping up from their farm system, and it would be surprising if come January, there wasn't a few potential single year contract risks available who could be worth signing if Snider does need more seasoning.

Considering the current financial situation in general, the lack of moves, and the lack of huge offers by teams that don't have a blank check every winter, seems to indicate that everyone is looking for bargains and ready to gamble on youth if necessary. If that happens, January will likely be a furious month as offers come down and free agents scramble for a berth in the spring. This hardly means that Manny is going to be available for $5mil and a promise to comp all of his lunch tabs at the Brass Rail, but there will be some credible DH potential available for less than traditional market value.

Between both Ricciardi's financial constraints and unwillingness to blow up the team completely, and Gaston's own consideration of his staff, the game now is to lower expectations as much as possible for 2009 without scaring the fans away.

"I'm looking forward to the season because it's going to be a challenge," Gaston said. "We have a chance to be thorns in the side of other teams."

In other words, the game plan for 2009 is hopefully fuck the chances of New York and Boston. However, in this environment, it's possible that it could be the right one to showcase the young arms and upcoming prospects with an eye to 2010. While many will decry the fact that the Jays will essentially deduct Burnett's salary from the payroll when he leaves, the reality is that a collapsing Canadian dollar and the death of an owner right before major post-season negotiations start is going to put any financial decisions on the 'hold' button for 2009. If the Jays are very lucky, they might find the austerity measures allow some in-house talent to bloom, and offer the outside hope of a run.

At the very least, we'll get to watch young talent play badly instead of old former talent play badly. That's got to be worth something...