Thursday, February 19, 2009

Snakebit



So, it starts. Both Scott Downs and Mike Maroth have been knocked out of training for the next few days. Maroth's left knee decided that even he couldn't support such a shitty pitcher and gave up during a workout. Downs, unfortunately, has hit stiffness in the same elbow which he had Tommy John surgery on.

Last year, Downs really hit a rough patch coming down the stretch in last August and September, posting an ERA of 5 from Aug 30th to Sept 13th, with the opposition nearly hitting .300 against him. The most worrying part was his lack of control, running up 6BB over just 9 innings pitched, as well as a couple of hit batters thrown on top of that.

Downs' sinker, slider, curve combination relies on the whipping motion on his elbow to get enough rotation on the ball so it will break sharply. By the end of last season, he was far from getting the movement on the ball he intended, which was a feast for opposing hitters, as he regularly missed his spots, or hung pitches in the zone.

The MRI revealed nothing, which doesn't mean it's time to expect Snakeface to be dustbinned yet for 2009. Assuming Ricciardi can be trusted, the official word was:

"Downs had a little twinge in his elbow," Ricciardi said. "Everything was good. It was a good MRI, but when they inject you with the dye, it takes five to six days -- some people a little longer -- to get the dye out. He's getting closer to getting it out, but I'd say in the next four or five days, he'll be throwing."

If the worst happens and we lose Downs, it will effect the entire pitching staff, including the starting rotation. Without Downs, Tallet and Carlson start as your left handed options for setup men, and it's very possible that Janssen will be moved back to the bullpen to serve as mid-relief in order to save them both in situations that you'd normally use a lefty earlier in the game. While the bullpen is the one place the Jays have plenty of depth to survive an injury, Downs was a linchpin last year for the Jays. Losing him even for a few months will significantly increase the pressure for the relief corp.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Broken Man on a Halifax Pier



Curtis 'Wait, He's White?' Thigpen has gotten his dreaded DFA notice, indicating that in all likelihood, Michael Barrett will be the leading candidate for the backup catchers spot leading into the 2009. Thigpen, who only two years ago was considered Toronto's catcher of the future, endured both 2006 and 2007 unable to hit the damn ball with any consistancy. For a player who worked his way up the organization largely due to his offensive skills, the sudden inability to make contact saw him first leapfrogged by other propects, and finally offered up to the world. Due to Thigpen's youth and flexibility, it's unlikely that he won't find some interest by another system's minor league pool, but his days in Toronto have gone the way of Russ Adams.

While many people have floated the idea that one of our celebrated prospects like Arencibia or Jeroloman might make the backup role out of Spring Training, it seems unlikely that for a ballclub with an eye towards 2010, they'd rush either prospect to the bigs from AAA. Most likely, both will be looked at as either September call-ups, or injury replacements at most, for some seasoning. That leaves Michael Barrett the only likely candidate for the backup catching role.

Barrett is a player that always made me wonder why there was so little confidence in his abilities. Despite the fact that punching out his teammates seems to be his primary source of entertainment (when not kicking the shit out of A.J Pierzynski, a service which deserves a medal), Barrett has been a very solid offensive and defensive catcher through his career. The fact that he was picked up for a minor league contract shows a real lack of confidence in his abilities, which likely stem from his numerous injuries.

It reminds me, in a way, of how baseball pundits used to refer to Halladay being injury prone, as if getting his leg broken from a line drive is somehow related to his pitching or conditioning. Most of Barrett's injuries have been freak accidents; a broken index finger, foul ball to the face, bruised balls (sorry, 'intrascrotal hematoma'). Looking around at a number of ballclubs very shallow in their catching pool, it's surprising that the Jays would get Barrett for virtually nothing.

Barrett and Barajas are an interesting tandam. Both are considered excellent defensively, with identical FPs of .992 in their careers. Barrett is historically the superior offensive player, which begs the question of how the two righthanded catchers will be played by Gaston.

Barajas: .241/.289/.409 OPS+ 77
Barrett: .264/.320/.422 OPS+ 89

Assuming Barrett can avoid injury and rebound to his normal production, it's possible we'll see another usurpment of the starting catcher role this year.