International Women's Day Post

A friggin’ sidearm knuckler! That’s from the pages of evil…

Eri Yoshida is an 18-year old pitcher from Japan who became the first woman to crack the Japanese professional baseball leagues at the age of 16. Pitching for the Kobe 9 Cruise of Kansai Independent Baseball League, Yoshida hasn’t racked up a terribly outstanding record (the knuckleball is notoriously hard to learn to control and use effectively) but was considered a good enough prospect for a cup of coffee with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp before coming over to the Arizona Winter League to play for the Yuma Scorpions. The AWL is a major stepping stone for a lot of prospects to the MLB and higher levels of the minors. Again, she suffered from control issues, but pitched decently enough, including four innings of shutout ball against Team Canada. With a 6.16 ERA in 19 innings and only 4 strike outs to 6 walks, Yoshida isn’t tearing up the league, but she’s posted better numbers than quite a few of the other male relievers in the league.

At 5ft 1in, with a fastball that tops out in the mid 60s, Yoshida is certainly a long shot to make the major leagues. However, she’s already stepped through some of the most significant blocks between a professional career, even if it is the minor leagues in North America or the Nippon Professional League, advancing further faster than any other female prospect since Jackie Mitchell in the last fifty years. A self-taught pitcher, Yoshida enjoyed a workout with her idol, famed Red Sox knuckler Tim Wakefield, who was her idol growing up. Wakefield, the most effective knuckler since Phil Niekro, said of Yoshida:

"I'm impressed," Wakefield said. "She spun a couple, but for the most part, it was very good. She was able to take the spin out of a lot of them and they had quite a lot of movement on them."

…and the Fat Mon

Randy Ruiz came chugging into camp today, according to the ever industrious Jordan Bastian at his excellent blog here. Ruiz had a towering run in the PWL, posting a line of .344/.423/.594 for a ridiculous 1.017 OPS with 7HR and 27RBI in 26 games. According to reports, the minor league veteran was seen playing left field and first base, and while not inviting Ganderson-like comparisons, apparently was solid enough in the field. If Ruiz can be trusted with a glove at the MLB level, he’s vastly improved his chances to play, especially in potential platoons with Bautista and Overbay.

Drew at Ghostrunner on First wrote a fantastic analysis of Ruiz’ ability to mash, well, everything and Ian H at the Blue Jay Hunter had an impassioned plea for his regular use during the season.

According to Bastian’s reports, Ruiz has dropped a lot of weight, obviously sensing that if he’s going to make the majors to stick, this has to be the year. For a guy who did nothing but produce when asked, you have to think that he’s got to deserve a real shot if he performs in the spring, and if not, someone from the organization needs to finally explain just what they think is wrong with him.

Right now, the only complaint I can see is the insurance going up on the Windows restaurant’s glass.

By the way, despite an unfortunate jack o’ lantern grin, faux hipster glasses, in general a dork by way of the frat look and a gig as the virtual cheerleader for the team, Bastian is one of the better writers in baseball, and his work in his blog manages to convey a comfortable casual interaction with the players without needing to smarm his insider status to make himself look cool. His Spring Training coverage is a must read for any fan.

Captain Ashore

With the acquisition of Rod ‘The Captain’ Barajas by the Mets, the Jays have now picked up their last possible draft pick, getting a sandwich pick from the Mets for signing a Class B free agent. Barajas, who was the odd man out this year in the free agent market for catchers, probably due to his unbelievably poor OBP of .253, actually represents a significant upgrade for the Mets, considering the weak pool of Riggans, Coste and Santos vying for a role behind the dish at Citifield. Thanks to that signing, the Jays will have 5 picks in the first round and sandwich round to restock the minor league farm system.

While many commentators are claiming that Anthopoulos’ signing of Jose Molina was a strategic decision to force the Mets to increase their offer to a major league deal, it seems remarkably unlikely for a number of reasons. While the Jays are not cash adverse, half million dollar gambles for a sandwich pick make very little economic sense. As well, Molina provides a lot of value in his own right, as a no-bat, all glove and cannon armed veteran coming into a system loaded from the top down with young pitching talent. He arguably has more value in the minor league system working with Arencibia’s defensive development and whatever rotation of starters lands in AAA Las Vegas.

The Grand Branyan

The Jays are reportedly looking into Russell Branyan as a possible signing for 2010. Branyan, who ranks with the elite sluggers in the game for home runs per at bats, is a typical power hitter with high strike out rates along with a terrific slugging and OBP. He walks a lot, hits a ton of home runs, and would make a perfect platoon partner for Bautista as he crushes right handed pitching to the line of .267/.363/.542.

Branyan is doubly valuable as he plays a decent left/right field, first base, and an acceptable third. His defensive flexibility would make him a useful roleplayer as he can provide both power and depth from the bench if necessary. Assuming the Jays end up going into 2010 with a bench of Chavez, McDonald, Ruiz and a platoon of Bautista/Branyan, they would have a power option for pinch hitting from both sides of the plate.

Branyan is holding out for a multi-year deal, something clubs have been reluctant to offer with the belief that the back injury that hampered him in 2009 is not a thing of the past. If the Jays believe him to be healthy, Branyan could be signed for an affordable multiyear deal, even if he ends up a full time bench player by the end of it.

Pitching Wholesale

Alex Anthopoulos shops for pitchers like a woman at the checkout counter ends up being shitty magazines and soap opera digests. Does it look like it might be interesting? Fuck it, you’ve got room in the car, it’s only three bucks, and if it sucks, you give it to your kids to cut up for that collage project they have to do for Easter. Looking past the allegory that I’ve just waterboarded into oblivion, the Jays current signings have all involved pretty marginal arms from the disused corners of the minor leagues and the rank ends of other teams’ depth charts to see if they can be made to work.

The interesting thing about the strategy though, is that most of these guys were first round prospects at one point. Highly touted for whatever reason as young players and have hit a snag (or in a few cases, severe tire damage) in their development and are on the skids. The most obvious case of this is Brandon Morrow, who we’ve looked at before as being the textbook case of how not to develop a starter. The signings are mostly depth or a shot in the dark, but if there is one key strength the Blue Jays have displayed as an organization, it has been the ability to develop underlooked starters who can go toe to toe against the monstrous and expensive offensives of the AL East.



There’s no parallel existence in which Kevin Gregg is an excellent pitcher. At best, he’s had stretches of being a decent reliever who has closing experience and walks too many batters. His numbers in 2008 and 2007 were fairly solid, and according to reports, suffered through knee problems in 2009, which limited his effectiveness. In other words, his ability to find the strike zone without rucking it straight down the pipe. Gregg’s key value to the organization, oddly enough, is not necessarily as a pitcher per say. With Gregg, the Jays gain flexibility to move either Frasor or Downs without hurting their relief depth, and if Gregg has a half-decent year and decides to use that to dangle himself on the market, he’s worth a draft pick. With Frasor and Downs entering free agency after 2010, Gregg’s option is a very low cost price for a closer, even if he’s a marginal one.



Dana Eveland is kind of the new Josh Towers; a not very good pitcher who has the makeup to have pretty good stuff. Unfortunately, he’s struggled with his control, and last year, was rumoured to be pitching through an injury of some type. He was also spectacularly unlucky last year, with a BABIP of .400. All those excuses aside, he’s still not a good pitcher. However, he throws a lot of groundballs, and was establishing himself as an acceptable back of the rotation starter in 2010. What he has is experience, and if he can limit his ridiculous walk rate and keep the ball down, he could be a serviceable anchor for the back end of a very young rotation.



Yes, yes, he’s already been nicknamed ‘oily pussy wig’ by people. We get it. Merkin Valdez is a Daniel Cabrera type; electric stuff, lots of power, and couldn’t hit the town bike much less the strike zone. Merkin throws hard, really hard; 95mph through nine hard. He’s got a good change and basically nothing else. He has been handled almost as well as Morrow, with the Giants being patient enough to give him a whole inning in the minors rehabbing an injury before bringing him back up. Valdez’ talent is unquestioned. The big wonder is whether or not the Jays can get him to control it at the big league level.

Goodbye Brandon, Hello Brandon

Anthopoulos certainly has made good on his plan, dealing for quality, young, controllable players who can all come up at the same time to forge a core team for the Toronto Blue Jays. So far, he’s dealt for three first round draft picks from the 2006 draft, injecting a much needed influx of high end talent and potential into the Jays’ farm system. His latest swap, of Brandon ‘Mensa’ League for Brandon Morrow, is a good example of the kinds of gambles that he must make in order to build a young competitive core quickly. League, who has all the stuff to be a dominant closer, is well into his arbitration years and while very effective in 2009, simply isn’t needed over the next two years. Morrow, who has shown high end potential but has not been able to effectively muster it yet, gets a second chance to establish himself as a starter with Toronto.

Morrow will likely be helped by the change of scene. Seattle fans have never forgiven him for not being Tim Lincecum, who was drafted after him. The criticism of his abilities, with only the odd sprinklings of admissions that rushing him into the majors and treating him like a yoyo between starting and relief, have been loud in the fanbase, and without cease from the Seattle press for whom Morrow’s development was never fast enough. Add on to that the fact that fans ridiculed him for suffering from diabetes, as if it was some kind of moral lacking, and you have an all together poisonous miasma in which to try and work.

Anthopoulos’ initial comments were not surprisingly well taken by the young pitcher. The Jays essential line is that they see him as being a mid to top rotation starting pitcher, and if that means returning to the minors to rebuild his endurance, focus on his control, and develop some confidence, that’s what they’re willing to do.

"I was never really allowed to develop as a starter the way I and a lot of other people thought I should be allowed to,'' Morrow said. "Hopefully, this new chance means I get to develop as a starter more. Changing roles has just been detrimental to me."

Fortunately, the Jays timeline for Morrow works to his advantage. There is no pressure for him to break camp as part of the starting rotation in the mind of the front office, allowing him the freedom to work on his secondary pitches without having a half dozen première offenses tee off on his mistakes.

“We’ll see what we have in the spring,” said Anthopoulos. “With a guy like Brandon Morrow, we’re going to do what’s best for him. We expect him to come in and compete, and win a starting spot next spring. That being said, if after seeing him and spending time with him we feel like he needs a little time, we might need to send him down.”

Morrow features a devastating four seam fastball and a good power curve that dives away from right-handers. His other two pitches, a change and a slider, are somewhere between inconsistent and ineffectual at the moment. Although, in the fall of 2008, Morrow one hit the Yankees by mixing all four pitches effectively to dominate their lineup. Much like Burnett, consistency is his biggest weakness, both in terms of control and health. Morrow’s 4.9BB/9 is almost double what a starting pitcher should be, especially for a fastball artist. He’ll need to get the ball down and under control first, and then focus on developing his secondary pitches so he’s got the ability to blow the heater past following the setup pitch.

To 2010 and Beyond!

One of the questions I hate hearing the most is ‘What reasons can you give Jays fans to bother coming out to watch the team this year?’ My response to it is usually along the lines of ‘because baseball is a beautiful thing to watch, you fucking limp-dicked bandwagon jumping whore-mongering would be Masshole cocksucker!’ Unfortunately, with the rules of modern media, Alex Anthopoulos is not allowed to scream that right before lamping Dick Griffin one. Putting aside my total hatred for people who judge the worth of baseball on post-season play, I’ve decided to give people five reasons to watch the Jays next year, and all of them are based off of recent moves by the Jays to augment their farm system.



Zach Stewart

Brought over in the Rolen trade (or better described as a steal), Zach Stewart will start at AAA Las Vegas next year, and is a potential front of the rotation starting pitcher for the Jays down the road. Stewart went to high-A Sarasota to start the season where he was truly overpowering. In 42.1 innings and 7 starts, Stewart posted a 2.13 ERA with a 32/8 K/BB ratio, 2.42 GB/FB ratio, and a 1.30 WHIP. In AAA ball, Stewart posted more human numbers, with an ugly WHIP of 167 and an ERA of around 2. However, Stewart was focused on controlling his walks, something he’s been inconsistent with, and once he becomes a little more comfortable down in the zone, his numbers should improved.

The key with Stewart is that he’s got a high end potential in his raw stuff. He gets a lot of strikeouts, especially on the quality of his slider, and is developing a change and a curve ball that will strongly help his 95mph+ heater. Stewart actually projects a little like Stieb; a power pitcher who can blow past batters, and if he adds an average off-speed pitch to his repertoire, will continue to strike out a lot of batters at any level.

Stewart features a nasty fastball and a hard biting slider, but as a starter he is working on a third pitch: his change-up. His slider is his obvious plus pitch, with scouts being extremely impressed by its movement and speed. His fastball has good sinking action to it and hitters are beating the ball into the ground.



Josh Roenicke

Roenicke will likely start 2010 in the Jays bullpen, currently in a mid-relief role. The high leverage pitcher has closer like power, with his 95mph fastball and almost splitter like cutter. His thirty odd innings in the majors last year between the Reds and the Jays saw him touched up a bit, but a lot of that is just the normal growing pains that come along with transitioning into the Bigs.

Roenicke certainly has the profile of a closer, and one of the very promising things about him is his clean mechanics. His approach to the plate is very efficient, which means that arm concerns are finally not a worry, and with the cutter as a go-to pitch, Roenicke could be a very effective option in late innings to shut down the opposition for an inning or two. He normally exhibits excellent control, keeping the ball down and limiting home runs.



Brett Wallace

The Jays seem to like their power hitters pasty and thick. Wallace is very much in the mould of Travis Snider as a guy who can just flat out rake, and has been doing so his entire minor league career. A left handed hitter with plus power, Wallace has posted some gaudy numbers and is most praised for his approach to the plate and ability to work counts. He strikes out a fair amount, which is to be expected with his power swing, but not so much that it is a serious concern. His patience means he’s unlikely to hit Adam Dunn territory in that regard.

Wallace owns a .293/.367/.455 line for his career, which is all the more impressive since it is mostly based at AAA level. His power as well as his ability to take a walk makes him a dangerous middle of the lineup bat, adding more left handed power to the already impressive Jays lefties.

A huge powerfully built guy, Wallace is currently a third baseman. While most people say he’s built for first base, several of his coaches have been clear that he’s got the athleticism and glove to stick at the hot corner. Either way, his bat is the real value, and the fact that he’s not limited to a DH role is an added bonus.



Kyle Drabek

Drabek is the biggest, swingingest dick in this whole trade. When sports writers in Southern Pennsylvania aren’t busy unlocking their jaws to slip his manmeat down their throats, they talk about his electric stuff and guaranteed stardom in a short time. The reality is less impressive, but not much so. Son of a former Cy Young award winner, Drabek projects some nice things in the future.

A hard throwing fireballer, there isn’t a former Jay he resembles as much as AJ Burnett. Drabek throws a nasty two seamer that he can locate down in the zone, and a plus curve that he uses to lock up batters. It’s not quite the knuckle-curve, but more of the twelve-six traditional over-arm breaking ball with a lot of late movement. He needs a third major league ready pitch to put him into Ace territory, but is working on a change up, and the Jays seem to develop a lot of high quality change up tossers.

If Drabek can twin a Marcum-like change with his heater and hook, he’s a very dangerous presence on the mound for a long time. The ability to change speeds and deliver a late breaking ball will handcuff batters, and could propel him to an elite level pitcher like many hope.



Travis D’Arnaud

D’Arnaud is one of the most intriguing elements of the trade, as he’s basically been below most scouts’ radar, and has been strongly coveted by Toronto. Their belief is that the farm system of the Phillies has mishandled his development, which is why their interest in the man is limited. Instead, the Jays believe strongly that D’Arnaud is not only a strong prospect, but a potential All-Star catcher, with a strong defensive game behind the dish and a bat that is promising power and consistency.

The catching of the Jays has long been suspect, with a raft of failed ‘can’t miss’ prospects littering the wayside like driftwood; Delgado was converted to first, Quiroz never learned how to hit and stay healthy, Phelps was over hyped, Diaz the same, Arencibia had a disappointing year and Jerolman’s bat hasn’t come around. The Jays have stitched together a catching solution for years, with veterans from Kevin Cash, Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas and now John Buck taking over the role as journeyman solutions.

For an organization that hasn’t developed a quality catcher since the days of Ernie Whitt (one of the impact catchers of the 80s) and Pat Borders (proof that intelligence on top of mediocre skills behind the dish can provide a long and successful career), the Jays are starved for a stalwart behind the dish, and in D’Arnaud they see that person. Not exciting, but defensively good, solid and improving at the plate, looking for a chance at high A and AA ball; we’ll see shortly who D’Arnaud really is, a plus defender with some pop, or another hope on a prayer.