Captain Ashore

With the acquisition of Rod ‘The Captain’ Barajas by the Mets, the Jays have now picked up their last possible draft pick, getting a sandwich pick from the Mets for signing a Class B free agent. Barajas, who was the odd man out this year in the free agent market for catchers, probably due to his unbelievably poor OBP of .253, actually represents a significant upgrade for the Mets, considering the weak pool of Riggans, Coste and Santos vying for a role behind the dish at Citifield. Thanks to that signing, the Jays will have 5 picks in the first round and sandwich round to restock the minor league farm system.

While many commentators are claiming that Anthopoulos’ signing of Jose Molina was a strategic decision to force the Mets to increase their offer to a major league deal, it seems remarkably unlikely for a number of reasons. While the Jays are not cash adverse, half million dollar gambles for a sandwich pick make very little economic sense. As well, Molina provides a lot of value in his own right, as a no-bat, all glove and cannon armed veteran coming into a system loaded from the top down with young pitching talent. He arguably has more value in the minor league system working with Arencibia’s defensive development and whatever rotation of starters lands in AAA Las Vegas.

Pitching Wholesale

Alex Anthopoulos shops for pitchers like a woman at the checkout counter ends up being shitty magazines and soap opera digests. Does it look like it might be interesting? Fuck it, you’ve got room in the car, it’s only three bucks, and if it sucks, you give it to your kids to cut up for that collage project they have to do for Easter. Looking past the allegory that I’ve just waterboarded into oblivion, the Jays current signings have all involved pretty marginal arms from the disused corners of the minor leagues and the rank ends of other teams’ depth charts to see if they can be made to work.

The interesting thing about the strategy though, is that most of these guys were first round prospects at one point. Highly touted for whatever reason as young players and have hit a snag (or in a few cases, severe tire damage) in their development and are on the skids. The most obvious case of this is Brandon Morrow, who we’ve looked at before as being the textbook case of how not to develop a starter. The signings are mostly depth or a shot in the dark, but if there is one key strength the Blue Jays have displayed as an organization, it has been the ability to develop underlooked starters who can go toe to toe against the monstrous and expensive offensives of the AL East.



There’s no parallel existence in which Kevin Gregg is an excellent pitcher. At best, he’s had stretches of being a decent reliever who has closing experience and walks too many batters. His numbers in 2008 and 2007 were fairly solid, and according to reports, suffered through knee problems in 2009, which limited his effectiveness. In other words, his ability to find the strike zone without rucking it straight down the pipe. Gregg’s key value to the organization, oddly enough, is not necessarily as a pitcher per say. With Gregg, the Jays gain flexibility to move either Frasor or Downs without hurting their relief depth, and if Gregg has a half-decent year and decides to use that to dangle himself on the market, he’s worth a draft pick. With Frasor and Downs entering free agency after 2010, Gregg’s option is a very low cost price for a closer, even if he’s a marginal one.



Dana Eveland is kind of the new Josh Towers; a not very good pitcher who has the makeup to have pretty good stuff. Unfortunately, he’s struggled with his control, and last year, was rumoured to be pitching through an injury of some type. He was also spectacularly unlucky last year, with a BABIP of .400. All those excuses aside, he’s still not a good pitcher. However, he throws a lot of groundballs, and was establishing himself as an acceptable back of the rotation starter in 2010. What he has is experience, and if he can limit his ridiculous walk rate and keep the ball down, he could be a serviceable anchor for the back end of a very young rotation.



Yes, yes, he’s already been nicknamed ‘oily pussy wig’ by people. We get it. Merkin Valdez is a Daniel Cabrera type; electric stuff, lots of power, and couldn’t hit the town bike much less the strike zone. Merkin throws hard, really hard; 95mph through nine hard. He’s got a good change and basically nothing else. He has been handled almost as well as Morrow, with the Giants being patient enough to give him a whole inning in the minors rehabbing an injury before bringing him back up. Valdez’ talent is unquestioned. The big wonder is whether or not the Jays can get him to control it at the big league level.

Doc’s Last Stand

What happens if Alex Anthopoulos’ ‘No comments’ turn into no trade, like his predecessor Ricciardi? The Jays have said they want to move Halladay, given that he won’t resign, but if they don’t get an offer they feel equals fair market value, they’re willing to hang on and take the draft picks instead. While this might seem crazy from the onset, it actually makes a great deal of sense. There is no value in second tier prospects. Guys like Russ Adams and Joe Inglett are useful additions to any bench, but they are not what you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for. Having three guys with their ceiling being middle relievers, back end starters and part time or one tool utility players is the epitome of playing safe, failed, doomed trade tactics.

Two draft picks for the best in baseball? You might not get a thing. Or you might get another Aaron Hill or Ricky Romero, or, dare I say it, Leroy Halladay. It is a gamble, but a possible superstar is better than a likely twenty-fifth guy on the roster. There’s an old saying in marketing, which is ‘go big or go home’. The Jays need to either get a package that gives us a Montero or Bourjas level prospect, with a possible superstar upside, or say to hell with it, and risk all that new scouting and signing budget on getting the best out of the June 2011 draft.

So what do you need if Doc Halladay goes out for Opening Day to the mound in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform?

The Jays need catching, and Doumit looks like a very possible fit. Even if it takes a pitcher beyond Accardo, Doumit would make a strong starting catcher who is adequate behind the dish and a potential threat in the lineup. He’s not a long term option with Arencibia and Jerolman behind him, who represent far better defensive and potentially similar offense, but he’d be a solid two year presence for the Jays.

It is this scenario that you need to make two free agent signings, and roll the dice that Boston and New York’s age starts to catch up to them. The first is in centre field; Wells should be better in 2010, since it’s hard to be much worse, but it is getting clear that his days are a starting centre fielder are past. Moving him to right field would actually help his fielding, as it is largely his range that has suffered. He still possesses excellent glove control, a highly unrated and misunderstood factor in fielding, and has a slightly above average arm. We’ll miss the cannon throws of Rios and Bautista, but Wells would make an above average corner fielder.

That is where the ever affable Mike Cameron comes in. Even at 36, Cameron represents a strong defensive centre fielder with excellent range. He’s not the wizard that he was in 2001, but maintains above average defense in a premiere position. He’s fairly consistent with his bat, and would make an excellent two hole addition to the lineup, with his power and ability to take walks. Cameron’s age has almost doomed him to perpetual one year contracts, which is why a two year deal with a player option might be what would sway him to Toronto.

The second signing involves moving Overbay during the offseason, which is considered quite likely. Moving Adam Lind to first (and using Ruiz as his stopgap when you rest him or rotate him into the field to rest another player) opens up the DH spot, and the Jays need a powerful bat that can stabilize the four hole. While many people might question it, bringing in the former Jay Carlos Delgado would make a perfect signing. Delgado is still an offensive force, if a few steps from his prime. Prior to the Mets, he had a largely healthy career, and shows the same power and canny eye in limited at bats last year that have characterized his career. Much like Cameron, Delgado can’t hope for a long term contract, which is why a similar offer might tempt him to Toronto to finish his career.

Now, why waste money on two aging players? Well, because you can reasonably project them to be an immediate upgrade for 2010 and potentially 2011. Following that, buying out of the commitment is fairly easy financially, as they will likely enter full crash modes to end their careers.

Compared to potential big name agents, both of these men shouldn’t represent more than a combined $12m a year, which is two million less than BJ Ryan is earned for sitting at home and trying to find hats to fit his oversized melon. They reasonably represent an upgrade of about thirty home runs a year across the lineup, and will help carry the weak bat from short.

Most of all, it represents a roll of the dice at a playoff spot while Halladay is still here. This could be a mediocre team, but it also could be a very dangerous one, if Wells, Doumit and Encarnacion rebound, Hill and Lind prove last year was the right area for them to be in offensively, Snider lives up to his potential, and both Cameron and Delgado produce as expected. A team like this on a streak can roll over a Boston or New York on the right days, and maybe grab the playoff spot. If not, you’ve risked very little, and when Doc walks, you take the prospects and at least have given the fans a little hope and the sideshow of Delgado going for his 500th home run in Toronto.

Back In The Ring

When the Halladay trade talks heated up in July, at same time as a return to employment, this blog went off the rails. I make no excuses. The team played terribly, the season ended as a wrenching disappointment, and now in the off season, we’re looking at possibly getting cents on the dollar for arguably the best pitcher our system has ever produced. It’s enough to make you want to cut your own wrists with a Jays embossed set of cleats.

The team, now under Alex Anthopoulos, is going into 2010-2012 as very much a non-contender, looking to add prospects and scouting, while grinding through the remaining financial obligations on many of our existing contracts. While ‘fire sale’ is not the correct term for the situation, the Jays certainly aren’t about to emerge as a contender with a couple of strategic signings in the off season.

So, what do they do to give fans even the faintest hope of self-delusion for the 2010 season? There are a few potential scenarios and a few good pieces to consider adding to the team to at least provide an outside chance for next year, and help build to that young core that Anthopoulos sees the Jays being able to leverage a contending team from.

Possibility One: Goodbye Doc

The reality is that Doc is likely gone, and likely gone for less than his value, but more than two high level draft picks. While the Jays blogosphere in general is trying to come to terms with the idea that we’ll be looking at scrubs and castoffs coming back, the reality is a little different. The team trading for Doc gets the best pitcher in baseball for a year at below value, as well as the window to discuss a long term extension, and failing that, a pair of high level draft picks when he leaves. I know a lot of fans may not believe it, but that is well worth a top level prospect, no matter how talented. Deals suggesting Ian Kennedy and Brett Gardner as a legitimate return for Halladay are as ignorant as they are stupid. Any offer that is not offering an impact prospect at the core of the deal isn’t to be taken seriously.

For Jays fans, the ideal solution would be losing Doc to a National League team, but the reality is that there’s only one ‘must not’ team on the trade list, and that is Boston. As much as the idea of Halladay in pinstripes makes me vomit in my mouth, the Yankees will be as formidable next year with or without him. The only realistic outlook right now is that the Jays are playing for second place, and will be for a while. However, Halladay in Boston turns the Red Sox into another untouchable team, right when the cracks are starting to appear. Lowell and Ortiz are turning into offensive questions, they’ll be carrying a lame duck back up catcher, and they have holes at short, second (if Pedroria shifts over) and in left field. They have a stable trio of starters, and a very consistent fifth man in their rotation. Halladay-Beckett-Lester would become the most difficult series match up in baseball. Enough to at least keep them in the hunt against New York’s bats for the post season, and block the Jays from the wild card.

So, the most attractive teams interested would be the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Angels. Most other rumoured clubs either lack the financial position to make a serious push, are not defacto contenders next year, or don’t have the pieces to make a deal.

That would mean any deal with these teams would likely be built around Billingsley, Montaro, Drebrak, and Bourjas respectively. Assuming one of these teams uncovers the key element, Halladay would likely be willing to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause, moving on from Toronto. Depending on what comes back, it’s safe to assume any of these trades will involve an arm ready for the rotation. With Marcum returning, the Jays are in the position to look at signing a veteran from either the inning eating mid-rotation section or the high risk, high upside section. With a core of young arms like Cecil, Mills, Rep, Stewart, and Ray floating around the system, the potential returns of McGowan and Litsch, and the chance for re-emergence of Richmond and Purcey, the Jays have solid pitching depth to make some moves.

Randy Wolf, John Garland, and Jerrod Washburn would all be good fits into a Toronto rotation, bringing some veteran presence as well as decent arms. None of these guys projects past a number three starter in the AL East at best, but all three can throw a lot of innings, and all are solid control pitchers. Any of them would be worth a multi-year contract as an anchor for the rotation and the bullpen.

In the high risk, high reward camp, we have Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Kelvim Escobar. Each of them is capable of having a premium season (even despite Escobar’s age) and are dominant pitches when healthy. The trouble with all of them is that they very rarely are, and age is starting to catch up to the wear and tear. Signing any of them to a one year incentive laden contract represents a possible staff ace or a guy who doesn’t last through Spring Training.

If you’re moving Doc, you want to look at stop gaps that will give you the possibility of a contending season, or acquiring pieces now that you expect to produce in 2012. A good move would be to see if the Pirates are willing to trade for Doumit, and the best trade would come if Overbay and a prospect pitcher was enough to make it happen, even if the Jays ate the bulk of his salary. The Pirates need a first baseman, their offense is anemic, and Overbay’s tools would make a very nice fit for their team, especially if they were only on the hook for a couple of million. Doumit gives us a good young starting catcher with a high possible upside and at worst, a steady presence while we play another year’s worth of ‘will Arenciba/Jerolman be ready?'

With 1B open, you run a sort of twisted platoon between Ruiz, Dopirak and Lind, with Ruiz and Dopirak trading off first, and Ruiz slotting into DH when Lind takes a spell into LF. Give Dopirak and Ruiz 400AB at the major league level to see if they are legitimately ready. If Ruiz can perform the entire year like he did in the fall, the Jays have a cheap, powerful bat to bank on in 2011-2012. Likewise, if Dopirak can put everything together, another piece is in place, leaving the Jays nicely positioned to deal with a stronger crop of FAs in 2010-2011, in order to field a serious threat.

This team only has a very outside shot at the wild card. It would need Doumit to hit like he did in 2008, Ruiz and Dopirak to thrive as fulltime players, Wells to return to form, the rookies to be solid and their pitching returns from the trade and FA signing to have very solid years. It's a team of a lot of potential, which could as easily turn into a sixty-five win team as it could be a ninety win team.

Next, Possibility Two: Doc’s Last Stand…