Hard Medicine

Yes, we knew it was coming. Yes, we know it's what is best for the organization. Yes, we know it is best for a man who did nothing but play his heart out and through intense work, effort, and discipline made himself the best pitcher of his generation. We were getting ready for this last year, going to see his final game at home in the retro-powder blue uniform. We have come to know this day would come.

Leroy 'Doc' Halladay is now no longer a Toronto Blue Jay. The upside is that there are people who should be wetting the bed in the Yankees front office, and that godforsaken offensive hole that is the National League is about to learn what pitching in the AL East really tempers you to do. As well, in many years, we'll still get to watch him go into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay.

You know, it's like the breakup. It had to happen, it's the best thing for everyone involved, but that still doesn't mean you're not going to drink to much and end up inexplicably crying over that gap in the bookshelf where the set of Calvinos and Sartre and those awful Harry Dresden books she took her with sat.

Doc’s Last Stand

What happens if Alex Anthopoulos’ ‘No comments’ turn into no trade, like his predecessor Ricciardi? The Jays have said they want to move Halladay, given that he won’t resign, but if they don’t get an offer they feel equals fair market value, they’re willing to hang on and take the draft picks instead. While this might seem crazy from the onset, it actually makes a great deal of sense. There is no value in second tier prospects. Guys like Russ Adams and Joe Inglett are useful additions to any bench, but they are not what you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for. Having three guys with their ceiling being middle relievers, back end starters and part time or one tool utility players is the epitome of playing safe, failed, doomed trade tactics.

Two draft picks for the best in baseball? You might not get a thing. Or you might get another Aaron Hill or Ricky Romero, or, dare I say it, Leroy Halladay. It is a gamble, but a possible superstar is better than a likely twenty-fifth guy on the roster. There’s an old saying in marketing, which is ‘go big or go home’. The Jays need to either get a package that gives us a Montero or Bourjas level prospect, with a possible superstar upside, or say to hell with it, and risk all that new scouting and signing budget on getting the best out of the June 2011 draft.

So what do you need if Doc Halladay goes out for Opening Day to the mound in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform?

The Jays need catching, and Doumit looks like a very possible fit. Even if it takes a pitcher beyond Accardo, Doumit would make a strong starting catcher who is adequate behind the dish and a potential threat in the lineup. He’s not a long term option with Arencibia and Jerolman behind him, who represent far better defensive and potentially similar offense, but he’d be a solid two year presence for the Jays.

It is this scenario that you need to make two free agent signings, and roll the dice that Boston and New York’s age starts to catch up to them. The first is in centre field; Wells should be better in 2010, since it’s hard to be much worse, but it is getting clear that his days are a starting centre fielder are past. Moving him to right field would actually help his fielding, as it is largely his range that has suffered. He still possesses excellent glove control, a highly unrated and misunderstood factor in fielding, and has a slightly above average arm. We’ll miss the cannon throws of Rios and Bautista, but Wells would make an above average corner fielder.

That is where the ever affable Mike Cameron comes in. Even at 36, Cameron represents a strong defensive centre fielder with excellent range. He’s not the wizard that he was in 2001, but maintains above average defense in a premiere position. He’s fairly consistent with his bat, and would make an excellent two hole addition to the lineup, with his power and ability to take walks. Cameron’s age has almost doomed him to perpetual one year contracts, which is why a two year deal with a player option might be what would sway him to Toronto.

The second signing involves moving Overbay during the offseason, which is considered quite likely. Moving Adam Lind to first (and using Ruiz as his stopgap when you rest him or rotate him into the field to rest another player) opens up the DH spot, and the Jays need a powerful bat that can stabilize the four hole. While many people might question it, bringing in the former Jay Carlos Delgado would make a perfect signing. Delgado is still an offensive force, if a few steps from his prime. Prior to the Mets, he had a largely healthy career, and shows the same power and canny eye in limited at bats last year that have characterized his career. Much like Cameron, Delgado can’t hope for a long term contract, which is why a similar offer might tempt him to Toronto to finish his career.

Now, why waste money on two aging players? Well, because you can reasonably project them to be an immediate upgrade for 2010 and potentially 2011. Following that, buying out of the commitment is fairly easy financially, as they will likely enter full crash modes to end their careers.

Compared to potential big name agents, both of these men shouldn’t represent more than a combined $12m a year, which is two million less than BJ Ryan is earned for sitting at home and trying to find hats to fit his oversized melon. They reasonably represent an upgrade of about thirty home runs a year across the lineup, and will help carry the weak bat from short.

Most of all, it represents a roll of the dice at a playoff spot while Halladay is still here. This could be a mediocre team, but it also could be a very dangerous one, if Wells, Doumit and Encarnacion rebound, Hill and Lind prove last year was the right area for them to be in offensively, Snider lives up to his potential, and both Cameron and Delgado produce as expected. A team like this on a streak can roll over a Boston or New York on the right days, and maybe grab the playoff spot. If not, you’ve risked very little, and when Doc walks, you take the prospects and at least have given the fans a little hope and the sideshow of Delgado going for his 500th home run in Toronto.

Back In The Ring

When the Halladay trade talks heated up in July, at same time as a return to employment, this blog went off the rails. I make no excuses. The team played terribly, the season ended as a wrenching disappointment, and now in the off season, we’re looking at possibly getting cents on the dollar for arguably the best pitcher our system has ever produced. It’s enough to make you want to cut your own wrists with a Jays embossed set of cleats.

The team, now under Alex Anthopoulos, is going into 2010-2012 as very much a non-contender, looking to add prospects and scouting, while grinding through the remaining financial obligations on many of our existing contracts. While ‘fire sale’ is not the correct term for the situation, the Jays certainly aren’t about to emerge as a contender with a couple of strategic signings in the off season.

So, what do they do to give fans even the faintest hope of self-delusion for the 2010 season? There are a few potential scenarios and a few good pieces to consider adding to the team to at least provide an outside chance for next year, and help build to that young core that Anthopoulos sees the Jays being able to leverage a contending team from.

Possibility One: Goodbye Doc

The reality is that Doc is likely gone, and likely gone for less than his value, but more than two high level draft picks. While the Jays blogosphere in general is trying to come to terms with the idea that we’ll be looking at scrubs and castoffs coming back, the reality is a little different. The team trading for Doc gets the best pitcher in baseball for a year at below value, as well as the window to discuss a long term extension, and failing that, a pair of high level draft picks when he leaves. I know a lot of fans may not believe it, but that is well worth a top level prospect, no matter how talented. Deals suggesting Ian Kennedy and Brett Gardner as a legitimate return for Halladay are as ignorant as they are stupid. Any offer that is not offering an impact prospect at the core of the deal isn’t to be taken seriously.

For Jays fans, the ideal solution would be losing Doc to a National League team, but the reality is that there’s only one ‘must not’ team on the trade list, and that is Boston. As much as the idea of Halladay in pinstripes makes me vomit in my mouth, the Yankees will be as formidable next year with or without him. The only realistic outlook right now is that the Jays are playing for second place, and will be for a while. However, Halladay in Boston turns the Red Sox into another untouchable team, right when the cracks are starting to appear. Lowell and Ortiz are turning into offensive questions, they’ll be carrying a lame duck back up catcher, and they have holes at short, second (if Pedroria shifts over) and in left field. They have a stable trio of starters, and a very consistent fifth man in their rotation. Halladay-Beckett-Lester would become the most difficult series match up in baseball. Enough to at least keep them in the hunt against New York’s bats for the post season, and block the Jays from the wild card.

So, the most attractive teams interested would be the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Angels. Most other rumoured clubs either lack the financial position to make a serious push, are not defacto contenders next year, or don’t have the pieces to make a deal.

That would mean any deal with these teams would likely be built around Billingsley, Montaro, Drebrak, and Bourjas respectively. Assuming one of these teams uncovers the key element, Halladay would likely be willing to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause, moving on from Toronto. Depending on what comes back, it’s safe to assume any of these trades will involve an arm ready for the rotation. With Marcum returning, the Jays are in the position to look at signing a veteran from either the inning eating mid-rotation section or the high risk, high upside section. With a core of young arms like Cecil, Mills, Rep, Stewart, and Ray floating around the system, the potential returns of McGowan and Litsch, and the chance for re-emergence of Richmond and Purcey, the Jays have solid pitching depth to make some moves.

Randy Wolf, John Garland, and Jerrod Washburn would all be good fits into a Toronto rotation, bringing some veteran presence as well as decent arms. None of these guys projects past a number three starter in the AL East at best, but all three can throw a lot of innings, and all are solid control pitchers. Any of them would be worth a multi-year contract as an anchor for the rotation and the bullpen.

In the high risk, high reward camp, we have Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Kelvim Escobar. Each of them is capable of having a premium season (even despite Escobar’s age) and are dominant pitches when healthy. The trouble with all of them is that they very rarely are, and age is starting to catch up to the wear and tear. Signing any of them to a one year incentive laden contract represents a possible staff ace or a guy who doesn’t last through Spring Training.

If you’re moving Doc, you want to look at stop gaps that will give you the possibility of a contending season, or acquiring pieces now that you expect to produce in 2012. A good move would be to see if the Pirates are willing to trade for Doumit, and the best trade would come if Overbay and a prospect pitcher was enough to make it happen, even if the Jays ate the bulk of his salary. The Pirates need a first baseman, their offense is anemic, and Overbay’s tools would make a very nice fit for their team, especially if they were only on the hook for a couple of million. Doumit gives us a good young starting catcher with a high possible upside and at worst, a steady presence while we play another year’s worth of ‘will Arenciba/Jerolman be ready?'

With 1B open, you run a sort of twisted platoon between Ruiz, Dopirak and Lind, with Ruiz and Dopirak trading off first, and Ruiz slotting into DH when Lind takes a spell into LF. Give Dopirak and Ruiz 400AB at the major league level to see if they are legitimately ready. If Ruiz can perform the entire year like he did in the fall, the Jays have a cheap, powerful bat to bank on in 2011-2012. Likewise, if Dopirak can put everything together, another piece is in place, leaving the Jays nicely positioned to deal with a stronger crop of FAs in 2010-2011, in order to field a serious threat.

This team only has a very outside shot at the wild card. It would need Doumit to hit like he did in 2008, Ruiz and Dopirak to thrive as fulltime players, Wells to return to form, the rookies to be solid and their pitching returns from the trade and FA signing to have very solid years. It's a team of a lot of potential, which could as easily turn into a sixty-five win team as it could be a ninety win team.

Next, Possibility Two: Doc’s Last Stand…

Trading Doc

Like many Jays bloggers, the appalling fall from grace and the agony of waiting out the fate of Roy Halladay has sucked all the literary will from my normal joy of pontificating on the fortunes of the team. The biggest problem hasn't even been that the Jays have been bad. It's more that the Jays seem destined to tank that big hit or key out that has decided most of the games this month.

The awful July record is even more dismaying when you consider the fact that it hasn't been getting blown out by opponents. It is the steady stream of games lost by a single run, where the Jays have been in the position to take the win, only to fall short time after time. The fluke nature of some of the wins, like Ichiro dropping the head of the bat on a pitch he was obviously fooled by, and blooping it over Scutaro's head, have been the gut wrenching narratives that this punishing month has left us with. Game we could have won; games we should have won.

Then, the idea of trading the Doc.

Now, from a strictly objective perspective, trading Doc at this point is likely the smartest thing the Jays could do. A solid 3B prospect, a couple of pitchers, and a catcher would fill some holes in the farm system, and give the Jays a solid core for 2012-2014. It would also clear 15mil from the payroll, which could be used to offset Wells' raise next year.

But, being a fan is by nature waiving objectivity when considering such a deal. Halladay is the defacto face of the franchise. More than that, the nature of the man fits both the Toronto and Canadian images of our self-identity so perfectly; modest, hard-working, dedicated, loyal, and generous. The quality of his arm is matched with his old school endurance, ability to finish games, and his utterly disciplined work ethic. Off the field, he's a regular fixture in the team's charity work. His wife is a strong supporter of the city. There's never been a hint of controversy surrounding Doc; his image that of the honest, uncompromised player in a league that has been hobbled with dishonest men and performance enhancing drugs. Boston's famed 'Curse of the Bambino' fell largely due to two sluggers positively testing for PEDs during the season before, and Hank Aaron's home run record, one of the most treasured records in sports, was shattered by a man so obviously the benefactor of the best steroids money can buy that it was met with mockery and scorn.

In many ways, Doc represents a link to baseball for the Canadian fan, most of whom grew up with the Jays appearing at some point to balance the Expos as 'home' teams for the country. Unlike the United States 'faith of 50 million' baseball culture, Canadian heroes came from the rink instead of the diamond. It was often hard to feel the connection to the kind of legacy that one baseball possesses; that flawed, intriguing and engrossing history which ties fans and players to the past more closely than any other sport. We don't have a Ted Williams to step out on his 70th birthday to remind us of what came before. Or Yogi Berra as a link to the greatness our fathers and grandfathers watched. As a still young franchise in a country in which the sport is at best a second option, Canadian baseball fans have sometimes struggled for identity. And then came the Doc.

It is hard not to wax rhapsodic about Halladay, and equally difficult not to compare him to the greats of old. In Halladay, we have the kind of starter that hasn't existed in baseball in two decades. A workhorse who wants to finish his own work. A former fireballer that decided control and contact were more valuable than the strike-out. A fast worker, blissfully free of time consuming antics on the mound, and displays of ego-stroking anger. An intensity during game day in his face that mirrors the classic visage of Bob Gibson. A professional work ethic, proud of his craft and taking nothing for granted. A role model in an age of flawed heroes, maintaining his integrity in the field and his generosity with children off of it. An old school pitcher that seems to have stepped out of an earlier time, taking on the modern baseball world.

Baseball, uniquely, is tied to its early days very closely. One can look at the career of a Peewee Reese and wonder how he'd fare in today's games, or make statistical comparisons between pitchers over a century. The popularity of games and fantasy programs that offer the ability to mix and match with current and past players are extremely popular amoungst fans. As a sport, baseball lives in its past as much as it does in the current time, and Halladay speaks to us in both ways.

Expositional handjobs aside, Halladay's worth to Toronto does extend past his talent. He's become iconic to the Jays in a way that few players have even approached in the franchise's history. Losing him would require a re-invention in the very way the Jays are viewed and interact with their fans.

Halladay MD

"New case. You have Mark Teixiera at the plate, one and two, and you've just thrown a sinker away that missed for a ball. There's a man on second with some decent speed. Romaro?"

"Could throw a slider away, see if he'll chase?"

"You're now two and two on him. Litsch?"

"Come inside with a two seamer?"

"Double to right field, with Alex Rodriguez coming to the plate. Ray?"

"Breaking ball, low and inside."

"The game is 3-2 with Teixiera's eight home run. You throw that, the Yankees owe you a check from their front office. Tallet?"

"Come in high on his hands, see about getting a bad swing, and back him off the plate a bit for a slider low on the corner at two and two if he doesn't bite."

"You're a lefty, so that one might work. Teixiera's got good bat speed though, so if you miss even a little, he's doubling it down the line. Cecil?"

"Same as Brian, but I throw the change two and two, get him out front on it."

"Nope. The change gets slapped into right for a single, Damon comes around to score unless Rios hits Barajas exactly. Richmond?"

"I'd backdoor the slider, because if he swings, unless he can dig it out, it's on the ground for Rolen or Scutaro to field. But you wouldn't do that."

"No? Why?"

"Because you want to know what you should throw, which is the cutter that Teixiera won't be able to pull the trigger on."

"Very good."

Roy Halladay very obviously outduelled AJ Burnett in front of a huge and raucous crowd in Toronto. The Doc needed only 103 pitches to hold the Yankees to five hits and a single run, fanning five along the way in what almost seemed to be another day at the office for him. Burnett was very good in the early innings, his curveball vicious, biting the corners. However, a couple of walks in between two doubles buried him, and Hill hammered a long home run in the eighth to decide the outcome of the much-anticipated matchup.

Obviously, Halladay is still the master.