Doc’s Last Stand

What happens if Alex Anthopoulos’ ‘No comments’ turn into no trade, like his predecessor Ricciardi? The Jays have said they want to move Halladay, given that he won’t resign, but if they don’t get an offer they feel equals fair market value, they’re willing to hang on and take the draft picks instead. While this might seem crazy from the onset, it actually makes a great deal of sense. There is no value in second tier prospects. Guys like Russ Adams and Joe Inglett are useful additions to any bench, but they are not what you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for. Having three guys with their ceiling being middle relievers, back end starters and part time or one tool utility players is the epitome of playing safe, failed, doomed trade tactics.

Two draft picks for the best in baseball? You might not get a thing. Or you might get another Aaron Hill or Ricky Romero, or, dare I say it, Leroy Halladay. It is a gamble, but a possible superstar is better than a likely twenty-fifth guy on the roster. There’s an old saying in marketing, which is ‘go big or go home’. The Jays need to either get a package that gives us a Montero or Bourjas level prospect, with a possible superstar upside, or say to hell with it, and risk all that new scouting and signing budget on getting the best out of the June 2011 draft.

So what do you need if Doc Halladay goes out for Opening Day to the mound in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform?

The Jays need catching, and Doumit looks like a very possible fit. Even if it takes a pitcher beyond Accardo, Doumit would make a strong starting catcher who is adequate behind the dish and a potential threat in the lineup. He’s not a long term option with Arencibia and Jerolman behind him, who represent far better defensive and potentially similar offense, but he’d be a solid two year presence for the Jays.

It is this scenario that you need to make two free agent signings, and roll the dice that Boston and New York’s age starts to catch up to them. The first is in centre field; Wells should be better in 2010, since it’s hard to be much worse, but it is getting clear that his days are a starting centre fielder are past. Moving him to right field would actually help his fielding, as it is largely his range that has suffered. He still possesses excellent glove control, a highly unrated and misunderstood factor in fielding, and has a slightly above average arm. We’ll miss the cannon throws of Rios and Bautista, but Wells would make an above average corner fielder.

That is where the ever affable Mike Cameron comes in. Even at 36, Cameron represents a strong defensive centre fielder with excellent range. He’s not the wizard that he was in 2001, but maintains above average defense in a premiere position. He’s fairly consistent with his bat, and would make an excellent two hole addition to the lineup, with his power and ability to take walks. Cameron’s age has almost doomed him to perpetual one year contracts, which is why a two year deal with a player option might be what would sway him to Toronto.

The second signing involves moving Overbay during the offseason, which is considered quite likely. Moving Adam Lind to first (and using Ruiz as his stopgap when you rest him or rotate him into the field to rest another player) opens up the DH spot, and the Jays need a powerful bat that can stabilize the four hole. While many people might question it, bringing in the former Jay Carlos Delgado would make a perfect signing. Delgado is still an offensive force, if a few steps from his prime. Prior to the Mets, he had a largely healthy career, and shows the same power and canny eye in limited at bats last year that have characterized his career. Much like Cameron, Delgado can’t hope for a long term contract, which is why a similar offer might tempt him to Toronto to finish his career.

Now, why waste money on two aging players? Well, because you can reasonably project them to be an immediate upgrade for 2010 and potentially 2011. Following that, buying out of the commitment is fairly easy financially, as they will likely enter full crash modes to end their careers.

Compared to potential big name agents, both of these men shouldn’t represent more than a combined $12m a year, which is two million less than BJ Ryan is earned for sitting at home and trying to find hats to fit his oversized melon. They reasonably represent an upgrade of about thirty home runs a year across the lineup, and will help carry the weak bat from short.

Most of all, it represents a roll of the dice at a playoff spot while Halladay is still here. This could be a mediocre team, but it also could be a very dangerous one, if Wells, Doumit and Encarnacion rebound, Hill and Lind prove last year was the right area for them to be in offensively, Snider lives up to his potential, and both Cameron and Delgado produce as expected. A team like this on a streak can roll over a Boston or New York on the right days, and maybe grab the playoff spot. If not, you’ve risked very little, and when Doc walks, you take the prospects and at least have given the fans a little hope and the sideshow of Delgado going for his 500th home run in Toronto.