Thursday, January 22, 2009

Your Future Rotation: Part Six



Brad Mills, a promising lefty starter in A ball was a 4th round draftee in 2007. He had actually been drafted the year before, but had elected to complete college before entering the minor league system. Mills began 2008 at Low-A Lansing in the Midwest League. In 15 starts, Mills went 6-3, with an ERA of 2.55, a 1.22 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 in 81 1/3 innings. He was promoted to Dunedin and in 6 starts, he was 4-0 with an ERA of 1.15 and 35Ks.

Based on his performance, Mills was promoted to AA New Hampshire, and continued his success there, with an impressive ERA of 1.10. He showed a slight decline in his K rate, but overall, his performance was remarkable consistent between the two levels. He's been effective at limiting home runs, despite a propensity for fly balls. Mills also averaged 5 2/3rd innings over six starts, but those numbers are slightly skewed by a 2 inning start.

Mills isn't considered to be a high ceiling starting prospect, throwing a low-nineties fastball, a curve, and a change up. While both his heater and curve are fairly average, his changeup is an exceptional pitch, with a sinking motion. Mills employs a deceptive delivery, which helps along with his change to disrupt the hitter's timing. His delivery has been especially effective against right-handed hitters, with an average 9K/9 innings.

It's unlikely that Mills will have a real shot at the rotation, unless he explodes out of spring training, or a rash of injuries hits the Jays during the pre-season. However, if Mills continues his success in AAA, it is very likely that he'll see some action during the year, or at the very least, as a September call-up. Mills is very much like Litsch a couple of years ago, considered a low ceiling starter, but certainly has the capacity to surprise people.

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