With the Jays off to a torrid start, kicking the hell out of the AL Central and West, winning our franchise high six straight series, most of the pundits and nay-sayers have been quick to point out that this is all just meaningless because the Blue Jays have yet to face the Beasts of the East in their own league, and that will quickly return the Jays to the expected preseason predicted performance.
There’s already been a lot of discussion in the Jays blogosphere about the fact that the Jays are a fundamentally sound ball club, and that a regression like 2008 is very unlikely. But that’s about applying logic to looking at a ball club, as opposed to fantasy style statistical minutiae. I’m surprised that no one has considered another big reason why the Blue Jays aren’t likely to simply flameout against their Eastern rivals; their previous season records.
In the last three years, the Toronto Blue Jays record against the East is:
2008: 37 – 35
2007: 36 – 36
2006: 43 – 31
What has killed the Blue Jays every year has not been the big matchups against Boston and New York, although Tampa Bay even when weak proved a troublesome competitor. It was the weak teams in the Central and West like the A’s, the Rangers and the Royals that we’d be swept by, ultimately costing us that margin of victory for the Wild Card or first place.
If the Jays can bring a winning record against the AL East in May, historically, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t stand. Even just looking at the teams, none of the East have rotations that they should feel comfortable with, and are dealing with key injuries and troubles.
So enjoy the ride. There’s every reason to believe that it’s not going to end as abruptly as the pundits may think.
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