Dazed and Confused

The Blue Jays road trip resembles a boxer suddenly forced to dummy up and try to rope-a-dope his way out of a vicious beating, hoping for a mistake to exploit and get himself out of the round. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened for the Jays, allowing even the misbegotten Orioles to pummel the bullpen into coughing up a five run lead for Halladay on the way to a 12-10 loss.

For the first time since he came on board, Cito Gaston is starting to draw criticism for his use of the bullpen by the media, and hot starts by Hill and Lind have not been picked up by slower starters like Wells and Rios. Alex especially, after looking like he'd been on the verge of rediscovering his power and contact, has completely backslid during the road trip. His complex swing now resembles a tumbling accordion, and he's been chasing Vernon's old nemesis, the high fastball, with nothing to show for it.

Well's RISP woes continue, although he hasn't been swinging the bat badly. In fact, the entire club has just been unable to find that big hit in ballgames, wasting opportunity after opportunity against weak pitchers and lame bullpens. The club has tumbled all the way to third in the standings, and now it is possible Downs might be looking at the DL for a strained hamstring.

However, all is not lost. Despite a nine-game losing skid, the Jays are only two games back of Boston, which is a tremendous statement about how strong this club was coming into the streak. Other than the RISP results, the Jays haven't played badly, even haven't pitched or hit that badly. The key is the lack of extra base hits and hits with RISP that has allowed weaker clubs to edge us. The bullpen has been very weak during the trip, and needs some rest to reset itself. I'd be surprised if Accardo isn't called up very soon to help anchor them.

Three games against the Bosox this weekend. If the Jays can bounce back, it's entirely possible we could start to reverse some of the damage, and climb a few games up to first again.

Back to May 2008

Robert Ray, praying for it to end quickly and painlessly.

The Jays found themselves on the wrong end of a sweep tonight, at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The most unfortunate part about it is, with their other series lost to New York, the mindless braying about the Blue Jays being unable to compete against the AL East is now extended likely all the way to the All-Star Break.

To be honest, in the series against the Bosox, the Jays looked snakebitten. Tallet pitched a gem against Boston, mostly shutting them down, only to have Wakefield have one of his on nights when his knuckleball is all but unhittable for any kind of power. Then the Jays drill Penny all over the park, but can't find the gaps or the fences, while Cecil has one of the most impressive pitching meltdowns since the good old days of Josh Towers. Finally, Lester get batted around, but in each inning, the Jays can't find a way to cash home baserunners, and we lose 5-1 with a not so good outing by Ray.

Not being able to hit once we have men in scoring position? It looked like a little trip on the wayback machine to May 2008.

In all honesty though, while the losses hurt, it's not as bad as it could be. The Jays were only blown out in one game, and the red Sox bullpen nearly gave it back up to us. Games one and three were games the Jays could (and argubly should) have won, but our hitting jammed up. It's possible that the pressure of the series had the Jays trying too hard, and in the case of both Cecil and Ray, they each had a bad inning that did them in.

The positive is that the Jays are still hitting, although the power wasn't there in Boston. It's quite a feat to put up 11 hits and only have a run to show for it. Or 14 the night before for only 3 runs. In fact, despite being outscored 15-5 on the series, the Jays outhit the Bosox 30-29. As much as I hit to say it, sometimes, you just have bad luck. It's a little worrisome about the lack of extrabase hits during the series, but the Jays are making good contact, and the Sox matched up a veteran knuckleballer, a legitimate number two starter, and their ace young lefty against a reliever, a AAA prospect, and a AA prospect. This does not fill me with dread for the future.

Lunchbox has been sent down to AAA, as expected, while the Jays roll into Atlanta for the utterly worthless spectacle of interleague play. I'm kind of excited about hearing Bobby Cox get interviewed by Jerry Howarth about the 80s Jays, but gamewise, I couldn't be more disinterested. There is noise that Russ Adams might be called up, for the left-handed bat and his strong performance so far in Las Vegas. My guess would be that Snider will be down mostly to correct his swing a bit, and give him a boost to come back up. You'd hope that would be in time for the series against Boston at home, assuming that he stops swinging at outside breaking balls. Over his last ten games, he's hit .269, with only one extra base hit and ten Ks, which is really scuffling at the plate.

It's very possible we'll see Ray or Cecil sent down soon, to make way for Janssen. Both pitchers have certainly impressed the Jays, but there's no point in chewing up service time when they're getting hit. Possibly Ray will have his start against Baltimore, and Cecil will need to have a second bad outing to head up going back down, but Janssen is a veteran presence, and his numbers are too good in AAA to bolster a rookie ahead of him.

Halladay MD

"New case. You have Mark Teixiera at the plate, one and two, and you've just thrown a sinker away that missed for a ball. There's a man on second with some decent speed. Romaro?"

"Could throw a slider away, see if he'll chase?"

"You're now two and two on him. Litsch?"

"Come inside with a two seamer?"

"Double to right field, with Alex Rodriguez coming to the plate. Ray?"

"Breaking ball, low and inside."

"The game is 3-2 with Teixiera's eight home run. You throw that, the Yankees owe you a check from their front office. Tallet?"

"Come in high on his hands, see about getting a bad swing, and back him off the plate a bit for a slider low on the corner at two and two if he doesn't bite."

"You're a lefty, so that one might work. Teixiera's got good bat speed though, so if you miss even a little, he's doubling it down the line. Cecil?"

"Same as Brian, but I throw the change two and two, get him out front on it."

"Nope. The change gets slapped into right for a single, Damon comes around to score unless Rios hits Barajas exactly. Richmond?"

"I'd backdoor the slider, because if he swings, unless he can dig it out, it's on the ground for Rolen or Scutaro to field. But you wouldn't do that."

"No? Why?"

"Because you want to know what you should throw, which is the cutter that Teixiera won't be able to pull the trigger on."

"Very good."

Roy Halladay very obviously outduelled AJ Burnett in front of a huge and raucous crowd in Toronto. The Doc needed only 103 pitches to hold the Yankees to five hits and a single run, fanning five along the way in what almost seemed to be another day at the office for him. Burnett was very good in the early innings, his curveball vicious, biting the corners. However, a couple of walks in between two doubles buried him, and Hill hammered a long home run in the eighth to decide the outcome of the much-anticipated matchup.

Obviously, Halladay is still the master.

The Yankees Are Coming

The showdown is finally happening. I don’t speak of the impending Halladay/Burnett matchup, or the first game against the New York Yankees this year. The matchup is between the Jays claims to legitimacy as a contenting team and their first game against a division opponent that the press takes seriously. Despite that only Tampa Bay has a lopsided record against the Blue Jays, the general opinion by the fans and the press is that Boston, Tampa Bay and New York represent truly legitimate contenders in the AL East, and Toronto will sink down into its tradition mire of slow starts to be scrabbling to stay above .500 at the All-Star Break.

Of course, there are those who believe that maybe this isn’t as cut and dried as one might think, and this series against New York will instead show baseball that Toronto isn’t going to be dragged behind the pack this year. Granted, it is us who will likely be disappointed at the end of the year, but to hell with it. Burying the Yankees with a sweep will cause blood to run from the eyes of New York fans, shredding the veneer of hope that their collection of mercenaries, prima donnas, douchebags and overhyped prospects will be a factor in September.

The Yankees will be trotting out their marquee lineup of pitchers for the series, whose combined salaries exceed the GNP of most African nations. A.J Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia may only have one full first name between them, but they represent the only stable part of the Yankees rotation. Burnett started strong and has been waning recently, while Sabathia is the exact opposite, seemingly finding his groove with a four hit shut out of Baltimore last time up. Pettitte, their fifth starter, has been consistently mediocre, which has been considered a blessing in the wake of injuries and inconsistencies with Joba, Hughes and Wang.

The Jays will counter with the ever-intimidating Halladay, and if you believe the New York blogs, a pair of former hotel employees stuffed into uniforms and wheeled out to be crushed under the billion dollar bats of the Yankees. That works for me, since dismissing Richmond and Tallet is a wonderful way to set up a nastier fall. The Jays should handle Burnett well. They have a dangerous lineup against right handers with a ton of power, and the team knows AJ inside and out. Attempting to blast a fastball past Lind just because you’re pissed about the umpire’s last call is a good way to deposit it into the second deck.

While the return of A-Rod to the lineup will bolster the Yankees offense, Richmond has been death on righties this year, and his slider keeps the ball on the ground for his defense. The Yankees are a long ball team, a lot of free swingers which will hopefully play to Richmond’s strengths. Pettitte was 1-2 against the Jays last year, with an ERA of 5.13 and a WHIP of 1.29. As Wilner pointed out, if you subtract Tallet’s one bad start verses Kansas City, his line is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.92.

Now, you might say that subtracting that start is fiddling with the numbers for a positive result to make him look better matched against one of the mostly highed regarded pitchers in the game. Very true, but the point that has been made is that the Jays have been playing against weak teams. Thus, Tallet’s one loss to one of the worst offenses in the Majors should be considered an outlier, since it directly goes against the established wisdom of the season. Fun with numbers time, kids!

Ultimately, if the Jays are a fluke this year, it won’t be proved by getting crushed by the AL East. It will come from our tradition of matching up very well against our division rivals, and then getting killed in godawful roadtrips to Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago and Cleveland. Simply put, contending teams find ways to win series and avoiding stacking up losing streaks. Non-contending teams have good months, good roadtrips, and give the gains back the very next series against a team they should be overmatching. Right now, the latter describes the New York Yankees.