The Yankees Are Coming

The showdown is finally happening. I don’t speak of the impending Halladay/Burnett matchup, or the first game against the New York Yankees this year. The matchup is between the Jays claims to legitimacy as a contenting team and their first game against a division opponent that the press takes seriously. Despite that only Tampa Bay has a lopsided record against the Blue Jays, the general opinion by the fans and the press is that Boston, Tampa Bay and New York represent truly legitimate contenders in the AL East, and Toronto will sink down into its tradition mire of slow starts to be scrabbling to stay above .500 at the All-Star Break.

Of course, there are those who believe that maybe this isn’t as cut and dried as one might think, and this series against New York will instead show baseball that Toronto isn’t going to be dragged behind the pack this year. Granted, it is us who will likely be disappointed at the end of the year, but to hell with it. Burying the Yankees with a sweep will cause blood to run from the eyes of New York fans, shredding the veneer of hope that their collection of mercenaries, prima donnas, douchebags and overhyped prospects will be a factor in September.

The Yankees will be trotting out their marquee lineup of pitchers for the series, whose combined salaries exceed the GNP of most African nations. A.J Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia may only have one full first name between them, but they represent the only stable part of the Yankees rotation. Burnett started strong and has been waning recently, while Sabathia is the exact opposite, seemingly finding his groove with a four hit shut out of Baltimore last time up. Pettitte, their fifth starter, has been consistently mediocre, which has been considered a blessing in the wake of injuries and inconsistencies with Joba, Hughes and Wang.

The Jays will counter with the ever-intimidating Halladay, and if you believe the New York blogs, a pair of former hotel employees stuffed into uniforms and wheeled out to be crushed under the billion dollar bats of the Yankees. That works for me, since dismissing Richmond and Tallet is a wonderful way to set up a nastier fall. The Jays should handle Burnett well. They have a dangerous lineup against right handers with a ton of power, and the team knows AJ inside and out. Attempting to blast a fastball past Lind just because you’re pissed about the umpire’s last call is a good way to deposit it into the second deck.

While the return of A-Rod to the lineup will bolster the Yankees offense, Richmond has been death on righties this year, and his slider keeps the ball on the ground for his defense. The Yankees are a long ball team, a lot of free swingers which will hopefully play to Richmond’s strengths. Pettitte was 1-2 against the Jays last year, with an ERA of 5.13 and a WHIP of 1.29. As Wilner pointed out, if you subtract Tallet’s one bad start verses Kansas City, his line is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.92.

Now, you might say that subtracting that start is fiddling with the numbers for a positive result to make him look better matched against one of the mostly highed regarded pitchers in the game. Very true, but the point that has been made is that the Jays have been playing against weak teams. Thus, Tallet’s one loss to one of the worst offenses in the Majors should be considered an outlier, since it directly goes against the established wisdom of the season. Fun with numbers time, kids!

Ultimately, if the Jays are a fluke this year, it won’t be proved by getting crushed by the AL East. It will come from our tradition of matching up very well against our division rivals, and then getting killed in godawful roadtrips to Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago and Cleveland. Simply put, contending teams find ways to win series and avoiding stacking up losing streaks. Non-contending teams have good months, good roadtrips, and give the gains back the very next series against a team they should be overmatching. Right now, the latter describes the New York Yankees.

Spring Training Fortune Telling

I have to be honest. The trouble with Spring Training is essentially that all it can be is a hazy vague idea of what a team might have. It would be hard to imagine Russ Adams, Jason Lane, and Brad Emaus are ready to translate being offensive juggernauts into the regular season, after all. So the best you can do is try to watch, follow along, and look for some indicators that largely reinforce your own conclusions before the regular season makes them look ridiculously naive and stupid.

Spring does make me cheery.

However, now that we're starting to get closer to the season, and the teams in spring are looking less like the results of a 'play with a Major Leaguer' contest, some things are finally shaping up, including the big questions about the bench and the rotation.

Michael Barrett seems to have finally gotten enough at bats in to find his swing, and the veteran catcher seems to be coming around at the plate. In his last five games, he's gone 5 for 12, hitting .416 with three doubles and 4 RBIs. While his slow start gave Chavez the chance for a serious look, he's never hit for power or for average in his career. Considering the push on getting Arencibia and Jeroloman at least a taste of AAA and major league pitching, the Jays will likely take a chance that Barrett can bring some of his former power to the plate in the fifty odd games they'll need, and in the event of Barajas going down, provide the same kind of veteran support if one of the prospects comes up at the backup. Worst case scenario is that Barrett fizzles completely, and Thigpen gets a couple dozen starts behind the dish before bringing up either prospects.

The rest of the bench is a little more fluid. Like many people in the Jays Blogosphere, I've been wondering about the reason for paying 2.5mil for Jose Bautista. While the Jays certainly love his versatility, being able to play a half dozen positions not terribly well, he's hardly an offensive upgrade anywhere. He does have some power, but not enough to justify having power hitter like metrics in strikeouts and average. His price tag as a utility player is difficult to justify, and while he's hitting the ball well in spring, I don't really see his numbers making a stronger case for him in the regular season than, say, Lane or Emaus. Also, he's shown little of the power that in theory justifies him as a first off the bench option.

Fortunately, arbitration might end up having made sense, since the Astros are reportedly looking at Bautista. Moving some of his salary will give the Jays some financial flexibility, and maybe finding a decent hidden gem in a trade as always a possibility. (Hillenbrand for Accardo, for example)

Based on comments by the front office and Cito, it looks like for right now, they are comfortable with a bench of McDonald, Millar, Bautista, and Barrett. If they move Bautista, Voodoo Joe Inglett would seem to be the next in line. However, Lane and even, god help us, Adams aren't entirely out of the mix. Adams looks a little like Bautista this spring, hitting the hell out of the ball, and switching between mediocre to terrible in the field. Lane's biggest challenge is trying to convince people he's finally figured how to hit and they should ignore the last three years of his career. However, if Millar goes into the tank and Lane continues his hot streak to the end of the spring, the Jays could decide to take a gamble.

The rotation is where all the focus has been of late, and for now, it looks like the picture is getting clearer. With Janssen likely to either not break camp with the time, or start in the bullpen for now, Richmond and Mills look like the likely contenders for the two remaining spots. Clement pitched an absolutely terrible game against the Twins, getting shelled but more importantly, walking seven batters over four innings. In just over ten innings pitched, Clement has walked 12 batters, and only struck out 5, showing real difficulty finding the edges of the plate, and being unwilling to commit to throwing strikes and trying to induce contact. I personally think that he'd be wise to spend time in AAA, since I'd be amazed if Mills success this spring translates into the majors yet. However, more likely he'll try and find another team rather than start in the minors.

A rotation of Halladay-Litsch-Purcey-Richmond-Mills isn't completely terrifying, but it has an awful lots of 'ifs' attached to it, especially if Janssen isn't available as a starter, and if McGowan isn't going to be seen until July or so. Fortunately, the Jays once again appear to have an excess of strong arms in the bullpen, and some unlikely hurlers like Camp and Hayhurst have shown impressive work in limited innings this spring.

In all though, this is still basically dressing up knowing fuck all into rationales and waiting for opening day to arrive and determine the real outcomes. That is what I hate about Spring Training.

Your Future Rotation: Part Four

Scott Richmond, formerly an undrafted free agent signed out of the Edmonton Cracker Cats in the independent Northern League, was picked up by the Jays in 2008, and made his way up into the rotation for five starts between July and the end of the season. Richmond, a Canadian, earned a splash in the media as his promotion to the major league club left him unable to compete for Canada in the Olympics.

A big right-hander (6'5"), Richmond mixes a fastball in the low 90s, changeup, curve, and his out pitch; a tight breaking slider. During his tenure in the minor leagues last year, Richmond threw strikes, posting a minuscule walk rate against his K/9. In 21 starts between double and triple A, Richmond posted an ERA of 4.29, racking up 115K in 121 2/3 innings. He's shown himself to be a bit flyball prone, but his ability to throw strikes has keep the damage limited.

In his five starts in Toronto, Richmond provided a decent fill in for Purcey. He ended up with a 1-3 record, but threw well, with an ERA of 4 and 20 strikeouts. Obviously he will not remain with the same strike out rate, but his control and ability to work the strike zone, he should avoid inflating his walk rate to unacceptable levels.

Richmond isn't considered to have a particularly high ceiling, but much the same was said about Litsch the last two years, and he's foiled expectations. With his ability to throw strikes, and limit unearned baserunners, he's got the potential to do well. If he does strongly in the spring, Richmond would be a contender for a spot in the rotation, potentially as a fill in for McGowan's slot until he comes back from injury, or even in the five slot. There is also the PR advantage of having a Canadian in the rotation, a fact likely not lost on the head office.