Spring Training Fortune Telling

I have to be honest. The trouble with Spring Training is essentially that all it can be is a hazy vague idea of what a team might have. It would be hard to imagine Russ Adams, Jason Lane, and Brad Emaus are ready to translate being offensive juggernauts into the regular season, after all. So the best you can do is try to watch, follow along, and look for some indicators that largely reinforce your own conclusions before the regular season makes them look ridiculously naive and stupid.

Spring does make me cheery.

However, now that we're starting to get closer to the season, and the teams in spring are looking less like the results of a 'play with a Major Leaguer' contest, some things are finally shaping up, including the big questions about the bench and the rotation.

Michael Barrett seems to have finally gotten enough at bats in to find his swing, and the veteran catcher seems to be coming around at the plate. In his last five games, he's gone 5 for 12, hitting .416 with three doubles and 4 RBIs. While his slow start gave Chavez the chance for a serious look, he's never hit for power or for average in his career. Considering the push on getting Arencibia and Jeroloman at least a taste of AAA and major league pitching, the Jays will likely take a chance that Barrett can bring some of his former power to the plate in the fifty odd games they'll need, and in the event of Barajas going down, provide the same kind of veteran support if one of the prospects comes up at the backup. Worst case scenario is that Barrett fizzles completely, and Thigpen gets a couple dozen starts behind the dish before bringing up either prospects.

The rest of the bench is a little more fluid. Like many people in the Jays Blogosphere, I've been wondering about the reason for paying 2.5mil for Jose Bautista. While the Jays certainly love his versatility, being able to play a half dozen positions not terribly well, he's hardly an offensive upgrade anywhere. He does have some power, but not enough to justify having power hitter like metrics in strikeouts and average. His price tag as a utility player is difficult to justify, and while he's hitting the ball well in spring, I don't really see his numbers making a stronger case for him in the regular season than, say, Lane or Emaus. Also, he's shown little of the power that in theory justifies him as a first off the bench option.

Fortunately, arbitration might end up having made sense, since the Astros are reportedly looking at Bautista. Moving some of his salary will give the Jays some financial flexibility, and maybe finding a decent hidden gem in a trade as always a possibility. (Hillenbrand for Accardo, for example)

Based on comments by the front office and Cito, it looks like for right now, they are comfortable with a bench of McDonald, Millar, Bautista, and Barrett. If they move Bautista, Voodoo Joe Inglett would seem to be the next in line. However, Lane and even, god help us, Adams aren't entirely out of the mix. Adams looks a little like Bautista this spring, hitting the hell out of the ball, and switching between mediocre to terrible in the field. Lane's biggest challenge is trying to convince people he's finally figured how to hit and they should ignore the last three years of his career. However, if Millar goes into the tank and Lane continues his hot streak to the end of the spring, the Jays could decide to take a gamble.

The rotation is where all the focus has been of late, and for now, it looks like the picture is getting clearer. With Janssen likely to either not break camp with the time, or start in the bullpen for now, Richmond and Mills look like the likely contenders for the two remaining spots. Clement pitched an absolutely terrible game against the Twins, getting shelled but more importantly, walking seven batters over four innings. In just over ten innings pitched, Clement has walked 12 batters, and only struck out 5, showing real difficulty finding the edges of the plate, and being unwilling to commit to throwing strikes and trying to induce contact. I personally think that he'd be wise to spend time in AAA, since I'd be amazed if Mills success this spring translates into the majors yet. However, more likely he'll try and find another team rather than start in the minors.

A rotation of Halladay-Litsch-Purcey-Richmond-Mills isn't completely terrifying, but it has an awful lots of 'ifs' attached to it, especially if Janssen isn't available as a starter, and if McGowan isn't going to be seen until July or so. Fortunately, the Jays once again appear to have an excess of strong arms in the bullpen, and some unlikely hurlers like Camp and Hayhurst have shown impressive work in limited innings this spring.

In all though, this is still basically dressing up knowing fuck all into rationales and waiting for opening day to arrive and determine the real outcomes. That is what I hate about Spring Training.

Your Future Rotation: Part Five

Casey 'Dirty' Janssen had been the Blue Jays star prospect since they selected him out of UCLA in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. Janssen rose very quickly through the ranks of the organization, destroying A and AA ball, with a minuscule 2.75 ERA over 2005, and a combined 24BB/183K; a 7:1 split between strike outs to walks. Janssen was more human in 2006, being roughed up over nine starts in AAA, but when A.J. Burnett went down with an injury, Janssen was promoted from the Syracuse Chiefs and made his major-league debut against the Baltimore Orioles on April 27, 2006.

In his first major league season, Janssen pitched in 19 games, including 17 starts, and logged 94 innings pitched. He didn't set the world on fire, with a 5.07 ERA and a 2:1 ratio of strike outs to walks. He had the potential to start in 2007, but the needs of the bullpen saw him step into a setup and long relief role, and emerged with a monster season. Logging 72 2/3rds innings out of the bullpen, he posted just a 2.35 ERA, and managed to rein in his tendency to allow home runs and baserunners.

Janssen throws six different pitches, although not consistently: a four-seam fastball in the early 90s, a two-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, a change-up and a slider. None of these qualify as a true 'out pitch', and instead, much of Janssen's success in 2006-2007 was from inducing groundballs and mixing speeds and location to disrupt the hitter's timing. Not likely to return to his strike out days, Janssen lives and dies by his control, something that with runners on base, his focus isn't always iron clad.

Following his surgery for a torn labrum in 2008, there's a huge question mark on whether Janssen will be ready to come back and be effective in 2009. While there is a lot of support for Janssen to return to the bullpen role that he was so effective in during 2007, he was drafted as a starter, and served his first season in that capacity. There's no doubt that he'll come into spring training as a potential starter, and if his shoulder has recovered, the Jays would be comfortable using his experience to fill the role.