Spring Training Fortune Telling

I have to be honest. The trouble with Spring Training is essentially that all it can be is a hazy vague idea of what a team might have. It would be hard to imagine Russ Adams, Jason Lane, and Brad Emaus are ready to translate being offensive juggernauts into the regular season, after all. So the best you can do is try to watch, follow along, and look for some indicators that largely reinforce your own conclusions before the regular season makes them look ridiculously naive and stupid.

Spring does make me cheery.

However, now that we're starting to get closer to the season, and the teams in spring are looking less like the results of a 'play with a Major Leaguer' contest, some things are finally shaping up, including the big questions about the bench and the rotation.

Michael Barrett seems to have finally gotten enough at bats in to find his swing, and the veteran catcher seems to be coming around at the plate. In his last five games, he's gone 5 for 12, hitting .416 with three doubles and 4 RBIs. While his slow start gave Chavez the chance for a serious look, he's never hit for power or for average in his career. Considering the push on getting Arencibia and Jeroloman at least a taste of AAA and major league pitching, the Jays will likely take a chance that Barrett can bring some of his former power to the plate in the fifty odd games they'll need, and in the event of Barajas going down, provide the same kind of veteran support if one of the prospects comes up at the backup. Worst case scenario is that Barrett fizzles completely, and Thigpen gets a couple dozen starts behind the dish before bringing up either prospects.

The rest of the bench is a little more fluid. Like many people in the Jays Blogosphere, I've been wondering about the reason for paying 2.5mil for Jose Bautista. While the Jays certainly love his versatility, being able to play a half dozen positions not terribly well, he's hardly an offensive upgrade anywhere. He does have some power, but not enough to justify having power hitter like metrics in strikeouts and average. His price tag as a utility player is difficult to justify, and while he's hitting the ball well in spring, I don't really see his numbers making a stronger case for him in the regular season than, say, Lane or Emaus. Also, he's shown little of the power that in theory justifies him as a first off the bench option.

Fortunately, arbitration might end up having made sense, since the Astros are reportedly looking at Bautista. Moving some of his salary will give the Jays some financial flexibility, and maybe finding a decent hidden gem in a trade as always a possibility. (Hillenbrand for Accardo, for example)

Based on comments by the front office and Cito, it looks like for right now, they are comfortable with a bench of McDonald, Millar, Bautista, and Barrett. If they move Bautista, Voodoo Joe Inglett would seem to be the next in line. However, Lane and even, god help us, Adams aren't entirely out of the mix. Adams looks a little like Bautista this spring, hitting the hell out of the ball, and switching between mediocre to terrible in the field. Lane's biggest challenge is trying to convince people he's finally figured how to hit and they should ignore the last three years of his career. However, if Millar goes into the tank and Lane continues his hot streak to the end of the spring, the Jays could decide to take a gamble.

The rotation is where all the focus has been of late, and for now, it looks like the picture is getting clearer. With Janssen likely to either not break camp with the time, or start in the bullpen for now, Richmond and Mills look like the likely contenders for the two remaining spots. Clement pitched an absolutely terrible game against the Twins, getting shelled but more importantly, walking seven batters over four innings. In just over ten innings pitched, Clement has walked 12 batters, and only struck out 5, showing real difficulty finding the edges of the plate, and being unwilling to commit to throwing strikes and trying to induce contact. I personally think that he'd be wise to spend time in AAA, since I'd be amazed if Mills success this spring translates into the majors yet. However, more likely he'll try and find another team rather than start in the minors.

A rotation of Halladay-Litsch-Purcey-Richmond-Mills isn't completely terrifying, but it has an awful lots of 'ifs' attached to it, especially if Janssen isn't available as a starter, and if McGowan isn't going to be seen until July or so. Fortunately, the Jays once again appear to have an excess of strong arms in the bullpen, and some unlikely hurlers like Camp and Hayhurst have shown impressive work in limited innings this spring.

In all though, this is still basically dressing up knowing fuck all into rationales and waiting for opening day to arrive and determine the real outcomes. That is what I hate about Spring Training.

Your Future Rotation: Part Three

One of J.P Ricciardi's low risk signings this year, Matt Clement, a former quality starter of the early and mid part of the decade. In 2005, he was one of the most highly sought after starters in the off season, which the Jays had been in on before Boston trumped all other offers. After missing all of 2007 due to extensive shoulder surgery (the surgeon reported that the muscle looked like 'a blown rubber tire'), Clement spent 2008 in the St. Louis Cardinals organization, posting a 3-0 record and 5.23 ERA in 16 games at three different minor-league levels.

The common wisdom around the league is that Clement is done, his career basically over from a shoulder injury that simply could not be recovered from. That is very possible. However, Clement is another of Brad Arnsberg's orphans, and much like Burnett, Arnsberg believes that with the right retooling of his mechanics, Clement presents a possible fit for the Jays rotation.

Clement had a sinking fastball in the low 90s and high 80s slider, along with a four-seamer and a decent sinking changeup. In 2008, his fastball stayed right around 90, and his slider had lost a little speed, touching the mid-80s at times. More than anything else, Clement's control has been an issue. His BB/K ratio has always been around 1:2, and without a quality breaking ball as an out pitch, he'll only be successful if he's able to locate the ball well and use his slider to break the batter's rhythm at the plate.

Discounting 2007, Clement has averaged 190IP each year since his rookie season, and while it's doubtful his shoulder is up for that kind of load, it does show that he's got experience pitching deep into ballgames, an advantage not shared by a number of the Jays other pitching prospect. Unless his shoulder has well and truly gone too far to recover, Clement can likely be considered a top rotation contender if he posts decent numbers in spring, due to his experience and former effectiveness.

I personally think any starter job should be contingent on him losing the douchebag chin beard.