Snakebit

So, it starts. Both Scott Downs and Mike Maroth have been knocked out of training for the next few days. Maroth's left knee decided that even he couldn't support such a shitty pitcher and gave up during a workout. Downs, unfortunately, has hit stiffness in the same elbow which he had Tommy John surgery on.

Last year, Downs really hit a rough patch coming down the stretch in last August and September, posting an ERA of 5 from Aug 30th to Sept 13th, with the opposition nearly hitting .300 against him. The most worrying part was his lack of control, running up 6BB over just 9 innings pitched, as well as a couple of hit batters thrown on top of that.

Downs' sinker, slider, curve combination relies on the whipping motion on his elbow to get enough rotation on the ball so it will break sharply. By the end of last season, he was far from getting the movement on the ball he intended, which was a feast for opposing hitters, as he regularly missed his spots, or hung pitches in the zone.

The MRI revealed nothing, which doesn't mean it's time to expect Snakeface to be dustbinned yet for 2009. Assuming Ricciardi can be trusted, the official word was:

"Downs had a little twinge in his elbow," Ricciardi said. "Everything was good. It was a good MRI, but when they inject you with the dye, it takes five to six days -- some people a little longer -- to get the dye out. He's getting closer to getting it out, but I'd say in the next four or five days, he'll be throwing."

If the worst happens and we lose Downs, it will effect the entire pitching staff, including the starting rotation. Without Downs, Tallet and Carlson start as your left handed options for setup men, and it's very possible that Janssen will be moved back to the bullpen to serve as mid-relief in order to save them both in situations that you'd normally use a lefty earlier in the game. While the bullpen is the one place the Jays have plenty of depth to survive an injury, Downs was a linchpin last year for the Jays. Losing him even for a few months will significantly increase the pressure for the relief corp.

Broken Man on a Halifax Pier

Curtis 'Wait, He's White?' Thigpen has gotten his dreaded DFA notice, indicating that in all likelihood, Michael Barrett will be the leading candidate for the backup catchers spot leading into the 2009. Thigpen, who only two years ago was considered Toronto's catcher of the future, endured both 2006 and 2007 unable to hit the damn ball with any consistancy. For a player who worked his way up the organization largely due to his offensive skills, the sudden inability to make contact saw him first leapfrogged by other propects, and finally offered up to the world. Due to Thigpen's youth and flexibility, it's unlikely that he won't find some interest by another system's minor league pool, but his days in Toronto have gone the way of Russ Adams.

While many people have floated the idea that one of our celebrated prospects like Arencibia or Jeroloman might make the backup role out of Spring Training, it seems unlikely that for a ballclub with an eye towards 2010, they'd rush either prospect to the bigs from AAA. Most likely, both will be looked at as either September call-ups, or injury replacements at most, for some seasoning. That leaves Michael Barrett the only likely candidate for the backup catching role.

Barrett is a player that always made me wonder why there was so little confidence in his abilities. Despite the fact that punching out his teammates seems to be his primary source of entertainment (when not kicking the shit out of A.J Pierzynski, a service which deserves a medal), Barrett has been a very solid offensive and defensive catcher through his career. The fact that he was picked up for a minor league contract shows a real lack of confidence in his abilities, which likely stem from his numerous injuries.

It reminds me, in a way, of how baseball pundits used to refer to Halladay being injury prone, as if getting his leg broken from a line drive is somehow related to his pitching or conditioning. Most of Barrett's injuries have been freak accidents; a broken index finger, foul ball to the face, bruised balls (sorry, 'intrascrotal hematoma'). Looking around at a number of ballclubs very shallow in their catching pool, it's surprising that the Jays would get Barrett for virtually nothing.

Barrett and Barajas are an interesting tandam. Both are considered excellent defensively, with identical FPs of .992 in their careers. Barrett is historically the superior offensive player, which begs the question of how the two righthanded catchers will be played by Gaston.

Barajas: .241/.289/.409 OPS+ 77
Barrett: .264/.320/.422 OPS+ 89

Assuming Barrett can avoid injury and rebound to his normal production, it's possible we'll see another usurpment of the starting catcher role this year.

Your Future Rotation: Part Eight

If there's anything that helps fuel the sense of bleak desperation leading into 2009, it's the fact that the Jays have signed Mike Maroth to a minor league contract. Unlike Matt Clement, who was a very effective starter prior to his injuries and has the potential, however slight, to rebound to middle of the rotation effectiveness, Maroth doesn't even come close. The Josh Towers of the Detroit Tigers, Maroth's career has been littered with control issues and a tendency to give opposing teams runs better than the ropa vieja stand outside of Dunedin Stadium.

Maroth brings a career ERA of 5.05 and WHIP of 1.46 to the Jays. To continue the Josh Towers comparison, that's about ten points higher in both areas than Towers career numbers, which does not inspire a great deal of confidence about his abilities. Prior to his injuries in 2006, Maroth did eat a lot of innings, which is likely the motivation behind this signing, to provide some AAA depth and maybe give some of the real prospects like Mills, Cecil and Romero someone who can provide some experience about what it's like to get shelled in the majors.

Maroth brings four pitches to the mound; a four seam fastball that hovers in the high 80s, a cutter, a curveball and a decent changeup that he uses for an out pitch. Maroth is successful when he works the edges of the plater, but as a result, his walk rate is higher than you want from a control pitcher, and he is very susceptible to the home run. When he can get ahead in the count early, his changeup and cutter can be tough on right handed batters. But he's got a tendency to hang pitches later in the count, especially when behind, which is why he's been so feasted on by AL batters.

Obviously Maroth is not meant to be anything other than insurance in case of a total implosion, so the Jays are forced to use top pitching prospects to plug the gaps. There's an outside chance that if Maroth can imitate Parrish's 2008 in the minors that he might see some spot starts during the season. While he's not good, he does have some experience with the league's lineups, and taking all that into account, might get a handful of starts to see if a possible strong AAA season translates into anything more. Most likely Maroth will show the same shitacular stuff in the minors, and end up getting cut by the end of the season.

There is one bright spot to this signing; Maroth's wife is seriously hot. Word to the wise, Mike. Update your badly out of date website with a pay section for private webcam parties for the missus, since I doubt that minor league paycheck is going to last very long.

Your Future Rotation: Part Seven

Ricky Romero has the misfortune to now be tied in with what many fans believe to be J.P. Ricciardi biggest blunder. After the Jays miserable 2004, Ricciadri used his first round draft pick in 2005 to take Romero sixth overall. That was ahead of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Garza. Romero's lack of consistency in the minors has increased the demands to see him finally produce some value for the club.

Romero throws four pitches, a fastball, curveball, changeup and cutter. None of his pitches are particularly notable, and he relies on control and location to strike out batters. He's been working on a four seam changeup as well, which hasn't really shown up on the radar yet. The problem has been that control, giving up a lot of walks; 75BB between Double A and Triple A combined in 2008. With allowing that many baserunners, Romero's ERA ballooned to just a hair under 5 in AA, and a WHIP of 1.59.

The bright spot of 2008 was not only a relatively healthy year following the injuries in 2007, but also over 164 innings pitched over both levels. On his promotion to AAA Syracuse, Romero seemed to have taken some steps forward in his pitching. In seven games, he managed to increase his K/9 to 8.02, reduce his ERA and WHIP to 3.38 and 1.45 respectively. He actually gave up fewer hits than he did walks, but still, it shows at least the potential for effectiveness.

Romero is very unlikely to pick up one of the rotation spots out of spring training, but remains at least a distant possibility. Most likely, the Jays will see if he can build on his success in AAA, and establish some kind of consistency there first. His ceiling isn't considered to be very high; a middle of the rotation guy at best, and without an effective out pitch, he needs to live and die by location. Unless he can get his walks under control, Romero will end up a AAA+ player, talented, but just lacking the ability to transition to the majors. However, with either a strong spring, or injuries, it's possible that we'll see Romero up as a stop gap starter.

Your Future Rotation: Part Six

Brad Mills, a promising lefty starter in A ball was a 4th round draftee in 2007. He had actually been drafted the year before, but had elected to complete college before entering the minor league system. Mills began 2008 at Low-A Lansing in the Midwest League. In 15 starts, Mills went 6-3, with an ERA of 2.55, a 1.22 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 in 81 1/3 innings. He was promoted to Dunedin and in 6 starts, he was 4-0 with an ERA of 1.15 and 35Ks.

Based on his performance, Mills was promoted to AA New Hampshire, and continued his success there, with an impressive ERA of 1.10. He showed a slight decline in his K rate, but overall, his performance was remarkable consistent between the two levels. He's been effective at limiting home runs, despite a propensity for fly balls. Mills also averaged 5 2/3rd innings over six starts, but those numbers are slightly skewed by a 2 inning start.

Mills isn't considered to be a high ceiling starting prospect, throwing a low-nineties fastball, a curve, and a change up. While both his heater and curve are fairly average, his changeup is an exceptional pitch, with a sinking motion. Mills employs a deceptive delivery, which helps along with his change to disrupt the hitter's timing. His delivery has been especially effective against right-handed hitters, with an average 9K/9 innings.

It's unlikely that Mills will have a real shot at the rotation, unless he explodes out of spring training, or a rash of injuries hits the Jays during the pre-season. However, if Mills continues his success in AAA, it is very likely that he'll see some action during the year, or at the very least, as a September call-up. Mills is very much like Litsch a couple of years ago, considered a low ceiling starter, but certainly has the capacity to surprise people.

Your Future Rotation: Part Five

Casey 'Dirty' Janssen had been the Blue Jays star prospect since they selected him out of UCLA in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. Janssen rose very quickly through the ranks of the organization, destroying A and AA ball, with a minuscule 2.75 ERA over 2005, and a combined 24BB/183K; a 7:1 split between strike outs to walks. Janssen was more human in 2006, being roughed up over nine starts in AAA, but when A.J. Burnett went down with an injury, Janssen was promoted from the Syracuse Chiefs and made his major-league debut against the Baltimore Orioles on April 27, 2006.

In his first major league season, Janssen pitched in 19 games, including 17 starts, and logged 94 innings pitched. He didn't set the world on fire, with a 5.07 ERA and a 2:1 ratio of strike outs to walks. He had the potential to start in 2007, but the needs of the bullpen saw him step into a setup and long relief role, and emerged with a monster season. Logging 72 2/3rds innings out of the bullpen, he posted just a 2.35 ERA, and managed to rein in his tendency to allow home runs and baserunners.

Janssen throws six different pitches, although not consistently: a four-seam fastball in the early 90s, a two-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, a change-up and a slider. None of these qualify as a true 'out pitch', and instead, much of Janssen's success in 2006-2007 was from inducing groundballs and mixing speeds and location to disrupt the hitter's timing. Not likely to return to his strike out days, Janssen lives and dies by his control, something that with runners on base, his focus isn't always iron clad.

Following his surgery for a torn labrum in 2008, there's a huge question mark on whether Janssen will be ready to come back and be effective in 2009. While there is a lot of support for Janssen to return to the bullpen role that he was so effective in during 2007, he was drafted as a starter, and served his first season in that capacity. There's no doubt that he'll come into spring training as a potential starter, and if his shoulder has recovered, the Jays would be comfortable using his experience to fill the role.

Your Future Rotation: Part Four

Scott Richmond, formerly an undrafted free agent signed out of the Edmonton Cracker Cats in the independent Northern League, was picked up by the Jays in 2008, and made his way up into the rotation for five starts between July and the end of the season. Richmond, a Canadian, earned a splash in the media as his promotion to the major league club left him unable to compete for Canada in the Olympics.

A big right-hander (6'5"), Richmond mixes a fastball in the low 90s, changeup, curve, and his out pitch; a tight breaking slider. During his tenure in the minor leagues last year, Richmond threw strikes, posting a minuscule walk rate against his K/9. In 21 starts between double and triple A, Richmond posted an ERA of 4.29, racking up 115K in 121 2/3 innings. He's shown himself to be a bit flyball prone, but his ability to throw strikes has keep the damage limited.

In his five starts in Toronto, Richmond provided a decent fill in for Purcey. He ended up with a 1-3 record, but threw well, with an ERA of 4 and 20 strikeouts. Obviously he will not remain with the same strike out rate, but his control and ability to work the strike zone, he should avoid inflating his walk rate to unacceptable levels.

Richmond isn't considered to have a particularly high ceiling, but much the same was said about Litsch the last two years, and he's foiled expectations. With his ability to throw strikes, and limit unearned baserunners, he's got the potential to do well. If he does strongly in the spring, Richmond would be a contender for a spot in the rotation, potentially as a fill in for McGowan's slot until he comes back from injury, or even in the five slot. There is also the PR advantage of having a Canadian in the rotation, a fact likely not lost on the head office.