Dazed and Confused

The Blue Jays road trip resembles a boxer suddenly forced to dummy up and try to rope-a-dope his way out of a vicious beating, hoping for a mistake to exploit and get himself out of the round. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened for the Jays, allowing even the misbegotten Orioles to pummel the bullpen into coughing up a five run lead for Halladay on the way to a 12-10 loss.

For the first time since he came on board, Cito Gaston is starting to draw criticism for his use of the bullpen by the media, and hot starts by Hill and Lind have not been picked up by slower starters like Wells and Rios. Alex especially, after looking like he'd been on the verge of rediscovering his power and contact, has completely backslid during the road trip. His complex swing now resembles a tumbling accordion, and he's been chasing Vernon's old nemesis, the high fastball, with nothing to show for it.

Well's RISP woes continue, although he hasn't been swinging the bat badly. In fact, the entire club has just been unable to find that big hit in ballgames, wasting opportunity after opportunity against weak pitchers and lame bullpens. The club has tumbled all the way to third in the standings, and now it is possible Downs might be looking at the DL for a strained hamstring.

However, all is not lost. Despite a nine-game losing skid, the Jays are only two games back of Boston, which is a tremendous statement about how strong this club was coming into the streak. Other than the RISP results, the Jays haven't played badly, even haven't pitched or hit that badly. The key is the lack of extra base hits and hits with RISP that has allowed weaker clubs to edge us. The bullpen has been very weak during the trip, and needs some rest to reset itself. I'd be surprised if Accardo isn't called up very soon to help anchor them.

Three games against the Bosox this weekend. If the Jays can bounce back, it's entirely possible we could start to reverse some of the damage, and climb a few games up to first again.

Back to May 2008

Robert Ray, praying for it to end quickly and painlessly.

The Jays found themselves on the wrong end of a sweep tonight, at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The most unfortunate part about it is, with their other series lost to New York, the mindless braying about the Blue Jays being unable to compete against the AL East is now extended likely all the way to the All-Star Break.

To be honest, in the series against the Bosox, the Jays looked snakebitten. Tallet pitched a gem against Boston, mostly shutting them down, only to have Wakefield have one of his on nights when his knuckleball is all but unhittable for any kind of power. Then the Jays drill Penny all over the park, but can't find the gaps or the fences, while Cecil has one of the most impressive pitching meltdowns since the good old days of Josh Towers. Finally, Lester get batted around, but in each inning, the Jays can't find a way to cash home baserunners, and we lose 5-1 with a not so good outing by Ray.

Not being able to hit once we have men in scoring position? It looked like a little trip on the wayback machine to May 2008.

In all honesty though, while the losses hurt, it's not as bad as it could be. The Jays were only blown out in one game, and the red Sox bullpen nearly gave it back up to us. Games one and three were games the Jays could (and argubly should) have won, but our hitting jammed up. It's possible that the pressure of the series had the Jays trying too hard, and in the case of both Cecil and Ray, they each had a bad inning that did them in.

The positive is that the Jays are still hitting, although the power wasn't there in Boston. It's quite a feat to put up 11 hits and only have a run to show for it. Or 14 the night before for only 3 runs. In fact, despite being outscored 15-5 on the series, the Jays outhit the Bosox 30-29. As much as I hit to say it, sometimes, you just have bad luck. It's a little worrisome about the lack of extrabase hits during the series, but the Jays are making good contact, and the Sox matched up a veteran knuckleballer, a legitimate number two starter, and their ace young lefty against a reliever, a AAA prospect, and a AA prospect. This does not fill me with dread for the future.

Lunchbox has been sent down to AAA, as expected, while the Jays roll into Atlanta for the utterly worthless spectacle of interleague play. I'm kind of excited about hearing Bobby Cox get interviewed by Jerry Howarth about the 80s Jays, but gamewise, I couldn't be more disinterested. There is noise that Russ Adams might be called up, for the left-handed bat and his strong performance so far in Las Vegas. My guess would be that Snider will be down mostly to correct his swing a bit, and give him a boost to come back up. You'd hope that would be in time for the series against Boston at home, assuming that he stops swinging at outside breaking balls. Over his last ten games, he's hit .269, with only one extra base hit and ten Ks, which is really scuffling at the plate.

It's very possible we'll see Ray or Cecil sent down soon, to make way for Janssen. Both pitchers have certainly impressed the Jays, but there's no point in chewing up service time when they're getting hit. Possibly Ray will have his start against Baltimore, and Cecil will need to have a second bad outing to head up going back down, but Janssen is a veteran presence, and his numbers are too good in AAA to bolster a rookie ahead of him.

Halladay MD

"New case. You have Mark Teixiera at the plate, one and two, and you've just thrown a sinker away that missed for a ball. There's a man on second with some decent speed. Romaro?"

"Could throw a slider away, see if he'll chase?"

"You're now two and two on him. Litsch?"

"Come inside with a two seamer?"

"Double to right field, with Alex Rodriguez coming to the plate. Ray?"

"Breaking ball, low and inside."

"The game is 3-2 with Teixiera's eight home run. You throw that, the Yankees owe you a check from their front office. Tallet?"

"Come in high on his hands, see about getting a bad swing, and back him off the plate a bit for a slider low on the corner at two and two if he doesn't bite."

"You're a lefty, so that one might work. Teixiera's got good bat speed though, so if you miss even a little, he's doubling it down the line. Cecil?"

"Same as Brian, but I throw the change two and two, get him out front on it."

"Nope. The change gets slapped into right for a single, Damon comes around to score unless Rios hits Barajas exactly. Richmond?"

"I'd backdoor the slider, because if he swings, unless he can dig it out, it's on the ground for Rolen or Scutaro to field. But you wouldn't do that."

"No? Why?"

"Because you want to know what you should throw, which is the cutter that Teixiera won't be able to pull the trigger on."

"Very good."

Roy Halladay very obviously outduelled AJ Burnett in front of a huge and raucous crowd in Toronto. The Doc needed only 103 pitches to hold the Yankees to five hits and a single run, fanning five along the way in what almost seemed to be another day at the office for him. Burnett was very good in the early innings, his curveball vicious, biting the corners. However, a couple of walks in between two doubles buried him, and Hill hammered a long home run in the eighth to decide the outcome of the much-anticipated matchup.

Obviously, Halladay is still the master.

The Yankees Are Coming

The showdown is finally happening. I don’t speak of the impending Halladay/Burnett matchup, or the first game against the New York Yankees this year. The matchup is between the Jays claims to legitimacy as a contenting team and their first game against a division opponent that the press takes seriously. Despite that only Tampa Bay has a lopsided record against the Blue Jays, the general opinion by the fans and the press is that Boston, Tampa Bay and New York represent truly legitimate contenders in the AL East, and Toronto will sink down into its tradition mire of slow starts to be scrabbling to stay above .500 at the All-Star Break.

Of course, there are those who believe that maybe this isn’t as cut and dried as one might think, and this series against New York will instead show baseball that Toronto isn’t going to be dragged behind the pack this year. Granted, it is us who will likely be disappointed at the end of the year, but to hell with it. Burying the Yankees with a sweep will cause blood to run from the eyes of New York fans, shredding the veneer of hope that their collection of mercenaries, prima donnas, douchebags and overhyped prospects will be a factor in September.

The Yankees will be trotting out their marquee lineup of pitchers for the series, whose combined salaries exceed the GNP of most African nations. A.J Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia may only have one full first name between them, but they represent the only stable part of the Yankees rotation. Burnett started strong and has been waning recently, while Sabathia is the exact opposite, seemingly finding his groove with a four hit shut out of Baltimore last time up. Pettitte, their fifth starter, has been consistently mediocre, which has been considered a blessing in the wake of injuries and inconsistencies with Joba, Hughes and Wang.

The Jays will counter with the ever-intimidating Halladay, and if you believe the New York blogs, a pair of former hotel employees stuffed into uniforms and wheeled out to be crushed under the billion dollar bats of the Yankees. That works for me, since dismissing Richmond and Tallet is a wonderful way to set up a nastier fall. The Jays should handle Burnett well. They have a dangerous lineup against right handers with a ton of power, and the team knows AJ inside and out. Attempting to blast a fastball past Lind just because you’re pissed about the umpire’s last call is a good way to deposit it into the second deck.

While the return of A-Rod to the lineup will bolster the Yankees offense, Richmond has been death on righties this year, and his slider keeps the ball on the ground for his defense. The Yankees are a long ball team, a lot of free swingers which will hopefully play to Richmond’s strengths. Pettitte was 1-2 against the Jays last year, with an ERA of 5.13 and a WHIP of 1.29. As Wilner pointed out, if you subtract Tallet’s one bad start verses Kansas City, his line is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.92.

Now, you might say that subtracting that start is fiddling with the numbers for a positive result to make him look better matched against one of the mostly highed regarded pitchers in the game. Very true, but the point that has been made is that the Jays have been playing against weak teams. Thus, Tallet’s one loss to one of the worst offenses in the Majors should be considered an outlier, since it directly goes against the established wisdom of the season. Fun with numbers time, kids!

Ultimately, if the Jays are a fluke this year, it won’t be proved by getting crushed by the AL East. It will come from our tradition of matching up very well against our division rivals, and then getting killed in godawful roadtrips to Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago and Cleveland. Simply put, contending teams find ways to win series and avoiding stacking up losing streaks. Non-contending teams have good months, good roadtrips, and give the gains back the very next series against a team they should be overmatching. Right now, the latter describes the New York Yankees.

Come Back Down To Earth

With the Jays off to a torrid start, kicking the hell out of the AL Central and West, winning our franchise high six straight series, most of the pundits and nay-sayers have been quick to point out that this is all just meaningless because the Blue Jays have yet to face the Beasts of the East in their own league, and that will quickly return the Jays to the expected preseason predicted performance.

There’s already been a lot of discussion in the Jays blogosphere about the fact that the Jays are a fundamentally sound ball club, and that a regression like 2008 is very unlikely. But that’s about applying logic to looking at a ball club, as opposed to fantasy style statistical minutiae. I’m surprised that no one has considered another big reason why the Blue Jays aren’t likely to simply flameout against their Eastern rivals; their previous season records.

In the last three years, the Toronto Blue Jays record against the East is:

2008: 37 – 35
2007: 36 – 36
2006: 43 – 31

What has killed the Blue Jays every year has not been the big matchups against Boston and New York, although Tampa Bay even when weak proved a troublesome competitor. It was the weak teams in the Central and West like the A’s, the Rangers and the Royals that we’d be swept by, ultimately costing us that margin of victory for the Wild Card or first place.

If the Jays can bring a winning record against the AL East in May, historically, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t stand. Even just looking at the teams, none of the East have rotations that they should feel comfortable with, and are dealing with key injuries and troubles.

So enjoy the ride. There’s every reason to believe that it’s not going to end as abruptly as the pundits may think.

Tallet Magnums the Sox

Brian Tallet has called on the power of his Magnum PI styled facial hair, digging down deep into the hairy machismo mojo to dominate a powerful Chicago lineup by giving up only four hits and no runs over 5.2 innings pitched. Tallet was sharp on the mound, getting out of several tight situations with strikeouts, and having some defensive excellence from Snider and Rolen to back him up.

Tallet's WHIP of 1.03 shows a lot of confidence in challenging hitters, and using both location and changing speeds to throw them off balance and get key outs. Not that anyone needs to be all that good when spotted with 14 runs.

Tallet was also helped by the fact that Chicago's defense was essentially a sieve tonight, capped by Alexei Ramirez utter inability to make any kind of effective play from short. Ramirez' imitation of a puppet with his strings cut helped the Jays to three runs in the first, and several other key opportunities to act as the Jays tenth man in the lineup against Gavin Floyd.

Considering the state of the Jays rotation, the ability of the Jays young pitchers to get outs and eat up innings is beyond what could have been expected. Even with Litsch and Purcey's first two starts being so weak, the Jays have still battled back and made their record as an all over effort by the team.

And Tom Selleck's mustache.

Two Weeks Of Hope

To the amazement of all, the Toronto Blue Jays have come out of the gates with a big club swinging, and have ground up the elite collection of shitballers that the Tigers, Indians, and Twins call their starting rotations. Granted that they aren't exactly facing a cast of Cy Young contenders (except for Cliff Lee, who is doing everything possible to prove right the nay-sayers from last year who pointed out that his numbers were inflated by playing the bulk of his games against crappy hitting lineups), it is still nice to watch the kind of offense that was expected last year from the Jays finally catch up with them.

The Jays offense ranks first or second in the AL in seven offensive categories, powered by efforts up and down the lineup. Aaron Hill has come back from his shortened 2008 season to monster his way through the first ten games, while his Bosox counterpart and AL MVP Dustin Pedoria is hitting a ferocious OPS+ of 36. Lind came out of the gate with a big showing, racking up 12 RBIs and tying a Jays record, while Travis Snider, Scott Rolan, and Vernon Wells have been playing long ball against the AL Central.

Our pitching hasn't exactly been as stellar, now losing Jesse Litsch for at least four to six weeks. However, Ricky Romaro has put forward two excellent outings, Richmond made up for a walk filled disaster against the Indians by shutting the Twins down in his second start, only giving up a single earned run. Halladay is classically Halladay, save for one bad inning during Opening Day. Purcey has been touched, and has struggled with his control, but has also been punching out batters at the clip he's been expected to make. While the bullpen will certainly regress some this year, it has been relatively stable, and taking advantage of the offensive riches to work out the kinks.

After ten games, the Jays sit in first in the AL East. Hardly likely that they'll stay there, but cracks have been appearing the monsters of the East that may give us some hope. The Yankees are watching age finally start to cripple their favourite stars, and Nady is likely out for the season. It's sad when Nick Swisher is the reason to hope for a win for your ballclub. The Bosox have been similarly struck, with Mike Lowell and David Ortiz starting very slowly at the plate.

The general theme around Toronto is that this is unsustainable. Well, sure, an .800 winning percentage isn't likely to be carried into September, but I think people are missing the point when they are assuming that unsustainable means the Jays will regress back to 2008. As virtually every Jays blog has pointed out, and Mike Wilner seems ready to tattoo on the forehead of the next hockey douche that calls in with some ignorant rant, the Jays in 2008, even following Gaston's return, still hugely underperformed offensively from what should have been even average production. The Jays were so far below their career averages from virtually the entire team that you had to expect them to be stronger offensively just out of basic numbers. Unless the team as a whole went sharply into decline, we were due better hitting.

So certainly the Jays won't sustain this streak, but that doesn't mean they are going to suddenly start dropping series after series on the road. If anything has been proven in the first two weeks, it's that the celebrated big teams of the AL East are mortal, and that rather than looking at the Jays lineup in terms of talent, everyone who consigned them to 5th place focused on their performance in 2008 alone. As shaky as the Jays rotation is, most of their competition isn't looking particularly stable either. With our average offense, we should still be able to stay in games, even if it involves working the bullpen more. That will be what decides all those one run games that we lost last year in the future.