Your Future Rotation: Part Eight

If there's anything that helps fuel the sense of bleak desperation leading into 2009, it's the fact that the Jays have signed Mike Maroth to a minor league contract. Unlike Matt Clement, who was a very effective starter prior to his injuries and has the potential, however slight, to rebound to middle of the rotation effectiveness, Maroth doesn't even come close. The Josh Towers of the Detroit Tigers, Maroth's career has been littered with control issues and a tendency to give opposing teams runs better than the ropa vieja stand outside of Dunedin Stadium.

Maroth brings a career ERA of 5.05 and WHIP of 1.46 to the Jays. To continue the Josh Towers comparison, that's about ten points higher in both areas than Towers career numbers, which does not inspire a great deal of confidence about his abilities. Prior to his injuries in 2006, Maroth did eat a lot of innings, which is likely the motivation behind this signing, to provide some AAA depth and maybe give some of the real prospects like Mills, Cecil and Romero someone who can provide some experience about what it's like to get shelled in the majors.

Maroth brings four pitches to the mound; a four seam fastball that hovers in the high 80s, a cutter, a curveball and a decent changeup that he uses for an out pitch. Maroth is successful when he works the edges of the plater, but as a result, his walk rate is higher than you want from a control pitcher, and he is very susceptible to the home run. When he can get ahead in the count early, his changeup and cutter can be tough on right handed batters. But he's got a tendency to hang pitches later in the count, especially when behind, which is why he's been so feasted on by AL batters.

Obviously Maroth is not meant to be anything other than insurance in case of a total implosion, so the Jays are forced to use top pitching prospects to plug the gaps. There's an outside chance that if Maroth can imitate Parrish's 2008 in the minors that he might see some spot starts during the season. While he's not good, he does have some experience with the league's lineups, and taking all that into account, might get a handful of starts to see if a possible strong AAA season translates into anything more. Most likely Maroth will show the same shitacular stuff in the minors, and end up getting cut by the end of the season.

There is one bright spot to this signing; Maroth's wife is seriously hot. Word to the wise, Mike. Update your badly out of date website with a pay section for private webcam parties for the missus, since I doubt that minor league paycheck is going to last very long.

Your Future Rotation: Part Seven

Ricky Romero has the misfortune to now be tied in with what many fans believe to be J.P. Ricciardi biggest blunder. After the Jays miserable 2004, Ricciadri used his first round draft pick in 2005 to take Romero sixth overall. That was ahead of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Garza. Romero's lack of consistency in the minors has increased the demands to see him finally produce some value for the club.

Romero throws four pitches, a fastball, curveball, changeup and cutter. None of his pitches are particularly notable, and he relies on control and location to strike out batters. He's been working on a four seam changeup as well, which hasn't really shown up on the radar yet. The problem has been that control, giving up a lot of walks; 75BB between Double A and Triple A combined in 2008. With allowing that many baserunners, Romero's ERA ballooned to just a hair under 5 in AA, and a WHIP of 1.59.

The bright spot of 2008 was not only a relatively healthy year following the injuries in 2007, but also over 164 innings pitched over both levels. On his promotion to AAA Syracuse, Romero seemed to have taken some steps forward in his pitching. In seven games, he managed to increase his K/9 to 8.02, reduce his ERA and WHIP to 3.38 and 1.45 respectively. He actually gave up fewer hits than he did walks, but still, it shows at least the potential for effectiveness.

Romero is very unlikely to pick up one of the rotation spots out of spring training, but remains at least a distant possibility. Most likely, the Jays will see if he can build on his success in AAA, and establish some kind of consistency there first. His ceiling isn't considered to be very high; a middle of the rotation guy at best, and without an effective out pitch, he needs to live and die by location. Unless he can get his walks under control, Romero will end up a AAA+ player, talented, but just lacking the ability to transition to the majors. However, with either a strong spring, or injuries, it's possible that we'll see Romero up as a stop gap starter.

Your Future Rotation: Part Six

Brad Mills, a promising lefty starter in A ball was a 4th round draftee in 2007. He had actually been drafted the year before, but had elected to complete college before entering the minor league system. Mills began 2008 at Low-A Lansing in the Midwest League. In 15 starts, Mills went 6-3, with an ERA of 2.55, a 1.22 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 in 81 1/3 innings. He was promoted to Dunedin and in 6 starts, he was 4-0 with an ERA of 1.15 and 35Ks.

Based on his performance, Mills was promoted to AA New Hampshire, and continued his success there, with an impressive ERA of 1.10. He showed a slight decline in his K rate, but overall, his performance was remarkable consistent between the two levels. He's been effective at limiting home runs, despite a propensity for fly balls. Mills also averaged 5 2/3rd innings over six starts, but those numbers are slightly skewed by a 2 inning start.

Mills isn't considered to be a high ceiling starting prospect, throwing a low-nineties fastball, a curve, and a change up. While both his heater and curve are fairly average, his changeup is an exceptional pitch, with a sinking motion. Mills employs a deceptive delivery, which helps along with his change to disrupt the hitter's timing. His delivery has been especially effective against right-handed hitters, with an average 9K/9 innings.

It's unlikely that Mills will have a real shot at the rotation, unless he explodes out of spring training, or a rash of injuries hits the Jays during the pre-season. However, if Mills continues his success in AAA, it is very likely that he'll see some action during the year, or at the very least, as a September call-up. Mills is very much like Litsch a couple of years ago, considered a low ceiling starter, but certainly has the capacity to surprise people.

Your Future Rotation: Part Five

Casey 'Dirty' Janssen had been the Blue Jays star prospect since they selected him out of UCLA in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. Janssen rose very quickly through the ranks of the organization, destroying A and AA ball, with a minuscule 2.75 ERA over 2005, and a combined 24BB/183K; a 7:1 split between strike outs to walks. Janssen was more human in 2006, being roughed up over nine starts in AAA, but when A.J. Burnett went down with an injury, Janssen was promoted from the Syracuse Chiefs and made his major-league debut against the Baltimore Orioles on April 27, 2006.

In his first major league season, Janssen pitched in 19 games, including 17 starts, and logged 94 innings pitched. He didn't set the world on fire, with a 5.07 ERA and a 2:1 ratio of strike outs to walks. He had the potential to start in 2007, but the needs of the bullpen saw him step into a setup and long relief role, and emerged with a monster season. Logging 72 2/3rds innings out of the bullpen, he posted just a 2.35 ERA, and managed to rein in his tendency to allow home runs and baserunners.

Janssen throws six different pitches, although not consistently: a four-seam fastball in the early 90s, a two-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, a change-up and a slider. None of these qualify as a true 'out pitch', and instead, much of Janssen's success in 2006-2007 was from inducing groundballs and mixing speeds and location to disrupt the hitter's timing. Not likely to return to his strike out days, Janssen lives and dies by his control, something that with runners on base, his focus isn't always iron clad.

Following his surgery for a torn labrum in 2008, there's a huge question mark on whether Janssen will be ready to come back and be effective in 2009. While there is a lot of support for Janssen to return to the bullpen role that he was so effective in during 2007, he was drafted as a starter, and served his first season in that capacity. There's no doubt that he'll come into spring training as a potential starter, and if his shoulder has recovered, the Jays would be comfortable using his experience to fill the role.

Your Future Rotation: Part Four

Scott Richmond, formerly an undrafted free agent signed out of the Edmonton Cracker Cats in the independent Northern League, was picked up by the Jays in 2008, and made his way up into the rotation for five starts between July and the end of the season. Richmond, a Canadian, earned a splash in the media as his promotion to the major league club left him unable to compete for Canada in the Olympics.

A big right-hander (6'5"), Richmond mixes a fastball in the low 90s, changeup, curve, and his out pitch; a tight breaking slider. During his tenure in the minor leagues last year, Richmond threw strikes, posting a minuscule walk rate against his K/9. In 21 starts between double and triple A, Richmond posted an ERA of 4.29, racking up 115K in 121 2/3 innings. He's shown himself to be a bit flyball prone, but his ability to throw strikes has keep the damage limited.

In his five starts in Toronto, Richmond provided a decent fill in for Purcey. He ended up with a 1-3 record, but threw well, with an ERA of 4 and 20 strikeouts. Obviously he will not remain with the same strike out rate, but his control and ability to work the strike zone, he should avoid inflating his walk rate to unacceptable levels.

Richmond isn't considered to have a particularly high ceiling, but much the same was said about Litsch the last two years, and he's foiled expectations. With his ability to throw strikes, and limit unearned baserunners, he's got the potential to do well. If he does strongly in the spring, Richmond would be a contender for a spot in the rotation, potentially as a fill in for McGowan's slot until he comes back from injury, or even in the five slot. There is also the PR advantage of having a Canadian in the rotation, a fact likely not lost on the head office.

Your Future Rotation: Part Three

One of J.P Ricciardi's low risk signings this year, Matt Clement, a former quality starter of the early and mid part of the decade. In 2005, he was one of the most highly sought after starters in the off season, which the Jays had been in on before Boston trumped all other offers. After missing all of 2007 due to extensive shoulder surgery (the surgeon reported that the muscle looked like 'a blown rubber tire'), Clement spent 2008 in the St. Louis Cardinals organization, posting a 3-0 record and 5.23 ERA in 16 games at three different minor-league levels.

The common wisdom around the league is that Clement is done, his career basically over from a shoulder injury that simply could not be recovered from. That is very possible. However, Clement is another of Brad Arnsberg's orphans, and much like Burnett, Arnsberg believes that with the right retooling of his mechanics, Clement presents a possible fit for the Jays rotation.

Clement had a sinking fastball in the low 90s and high 80s slider, along with a four-seamer and a decent sinking changeup. In 2008, his fastball stayed right around 90, and his slider had lost a little speed, touching the mid-80s at times. More than anything else, Clement's control has been an issue. His BB/K ratio has always been around 1:2, and without a quality breaking ball as an out pitch, he'll only be successful if he's able to locate the ball well and use his slider to break the batter's rhythm at the plate.

Discounting 2007, Clement has averaged 190IP each year since his rookie season, and while it's doubtful his shoulder is up for that kind of load, it does show that he's got experience pitching deep into ballgames, an advantage not shared by a number of the Jays other pitching prospect. Unless his shoulder has well and truly gone too far to recover, Clement can likely be considered a top rotation contender if he posts decent numbers in spring, due to his experience and former effectiveness.

I personally think any starter job should be contingent on him losing the douchebag chin beard.

Your Future Rotation: Part Two

Brett Cecil, currently at AAA, was a sandwich draft pick in 2007, originally catching notice as a closer in the University of Maryland. Cecil, a big lefthander with plus speed, was converted to a starting role, and in one year, has vaulted up three levels to end off the season with six respectable starts in Syracuse. Ever since being drafted, Cecil has pitched on a 5 inning limit, to stretch the young lefty out to contend with the starters load, and he finished off last season with 118 2/3rds innings of work.

Cecil brings a low ninties sinking fastball which he locates well, a change that also sinks, and a devastating slider as his out pitch. Unlike many hot prospects, Cecil already has learned to pitch to contact, inducing a high percentage of ground balls and using the slider to strike out batters at all levels at 9.7K/9. In AAA, his K rate remained fairly stable, but his BB jumped sharply. Obviously, the hope is that he's just adjusting to the AAA level, but it might be relying on impatient hitting as opposed to location in limiting walks.

The Jays have been careful with Cecil, which is why he's likely not going to start in the rotation out of spring training, or if so, meant mainly as a limited option until McGowan returns. As good as his stuff is considered to be, and as good as the Jays bullpen is, having a starter penciled in for only five innings in your rotation puts dangerous pressure on your relievers. The last thing the Jays want to is blow out key figures in their biggest strength early in the season.

More likely, Cecil will be used as a regular call up, continuing to stretch him in AAA and work on his control, and bringing him up for a few starts to replace injuries. Considering his abilities, the Jays need to give him a sniff of MLB level play next season, to see what fit he could make as a full time starter in 2010.