Goodbye Brandon, Hello Brandon

Anthopoulos certainly has made good on his plan, dealing for quality, young, controllable players who can all come up at the same time to forge a core team for the Toronto Blue Jays. So far, he’s dealt for three first round draft picks from the 2006 draft, injecting a much needed influx of high end talent and potential into the Jays’ farm system. His latest swap, of Brandon ‘Mensa’ League for Brandon Morrow, is a good example of the kinds of gambles that he must make in order to build a young competitive core quickly. League, who has all the stuff to be a dominant closer, is well into his arbitration years and while very effective in 2009, simply isn’t needed over the next two years. Morrow, who has shown high end potential but has not been able to effectively muster it yet, gets a second chance to establish himself as a starter with Toronto.

Morrow will likely be helped by the change of scene. Seattle fans have never forgiven him for not being Tim Lincecum, who was drafted after him. The criticism of his abilities, with only the odd sprinklings of admissions that rushing him into the majors and treating him like a yoyo between starting and relief, have been loud in the fanbase, and without cease from the Seattle press for whom Morrow’s development was never fast enough. Add on to that the fact that fans ridiculed him for suffering from diabetes, as if it was some kind of moral lacking, and you have an all together poisonous miasma in which to try and work.

Anthopoulos’ initial comments were not surprisingly well taken by the young pitcher. The Jays essential line is that they see him as being a mid to top rotation starting pitcher, and if that means returning to the minors to rebuild his endurance, focus on his control, and develop some confidence, that’s what they’re willing to do.

"I was never really allowed to develop as a starter the way I and a lot of other people thought I should be allowed to,'' Morrow said. "Hopefully, this new chance means I get to develop as a starter more. Changing roles has just been detrimental to me."

Fortunately, the Jays timeline for Morrow works to his advantage. There is no pressure for him to break camp as part of the starting rotation in the mind of the front office, allowing him the freedom to work on his secondary pitches without having a half dozen première offenses tee off on his mistakes.

“We’ll see what we have in the spring,” said Anthopoulos. “With a guy like Brandon Morrow, we’re going to do what’s best for him. We expect him to come in and compete, and win a starting spot next spring. That being said, if after seeing him and spending time with him we feel like he needs a little time, we might need to send him down.”

Morrow features a devastating four seam fastball and a good power curve that dives away from right-handers. His other two pitches, a change and a slider, are somewhere between inconsistent and ineffectual at the moment. Although, in the fall of 2008, Morrow one hit the Yankees by mixing all four pitches effectively to dominate their lineup. Much like Burnett, consistency is his biggest weakness, both in terms of control and health. Morrow’s 4.9BB/9 is almost double what a starting pitcher should be, especially for a fastball artist. He’ll need to get the ball down and under control first, and then focus on developing his secondary pitches so he’s got the ability to blow the heater past following the setup pitch.

To 2010 and Beyond!

One of the questions I hate hearing the most is ‘What reasons can you give Jays fans to bother coming out to watch the team this year?’ My response to it is usually along the lines of ‘because baseball is a beautiful thing to watch, you fucking limp-dicked bandwagon jumping whore-mongering would be Masshole cocksucker!’ Unfortunately, with the rules of modern media, Alex Anthopoulos is not allowed to scream that right before lamping Dick Griffin one. Putting aside my total hatred for people who judge the worth of baseball on post-season play, I’ve decided to give people five reasons to watch the Jays next year, and all of them are based off of recent moves by the Jays to augment their farm system.



Zach Stewart

Brought over in the Rolen trade (or better described as a steal), Zach Stewart will start at AAA Las Vegas next year, and is a potential front of the rotation starting pitcher for the Jays down the road. Stewart went to high-A Sarasota to start the season where he was truly overpowering. In 42.1 innings and 7 starts, Stewart posted a 2.13 ERA with a 32/8 K/BB ratio, 2.42 GB/FB ratio, and a 1.30 WHIP. In AAA ball, Stewart posted more human numbers, with an ugly WHIP of 167 and an ERA of around 2. However, Stewart was focused on controlling his walks, something he’s been inconsistent with, and once he becomes a little more comfortable down in the zone, his numbers should improved.

The key with Stewart is that he’s got a high end potential in his raw stuff. He gets a lot of strikeouts, especially on the quality of his slider, and is developing a change and a curve ball that will strongly help his 95mph+ heater. Stewart actually projects a little like Stieb; a power pitcher who can blow past batters, and if he adds an average off-speed pitch to his repertoire, will continue to strike out a lot of batters at any level.

Stewart features a nasty fastball and a hard biting slider, but as a starter he is working on a third pitch: his change-up. His slider is his obvious plus pitch, with scouts being extremely impressed by its movement and speed. His fastball has good sinking action to it and hitters are beating the ball into the ground.



Josh Roenicke

Roenicke will likely start 2010 in the Jays bullpen, currently in a mid-relief role. The high leverage pitcher has closer like power, with his 95mph fastball and almost splitter like cutter. His thirty odd innings in the majors last year between the Reds and the Jays saw him touched up a bit, but a lot of that is just the normal growing pains that come along with transitioning into the Bigs.

Roenicke certainly has the profile of a closer, and one of the very promising things about him is his clean mechanics. His approach to the plate is very efficient, which means that arm concerns are finally not a worry, and with the cutter as a go-to pitch, Roenicke could be a very effective option in late innings to shut down the opposition for an inning or two. He normally exhibits excellent control, keeping the ball down and limiting home runs.



Brett Wallace

The Jays seem to like their power hitters pasty and thick. Wallace is very much in the mould of Travis Snider as a guy who can just flat out rake, and has been doing so his entire minor league career. A left handed hitter with plus power, Wallace has posted some gaudy numbers and is most praised for his approach to the plate and ability to work counts. He strikes out a fair amount, which is to be expected with his power swing, but not so much that it is a serious concern. His patience means he’s unlikely to hit Adam Dunn territory in that regard.

Wallace owns a .293/.367/.455 line for his career, which is all the more impressive since it is mostly based at AAA level. His power as well as his ability to take a walk makes him a dangerous middle of the lineup bat, adding more left handed power to the already impressive Jays lefties.

A huge powerfully built guy, Wallace is currently a third baseman. While most people say he’s built for first base, several of his coaches have been clear that he’s got the athleticism and glove to stick at the hot corner. Either way, his bat is the real value, and the fact that he’s not limited to a DH role is an added bonus.



Kyle Drabek

Drabek is the biggest, swingingest dick in this whole trade. When sports writers in Southern Pennsylvania aren’t busy unlocking their jaws to slip his manmeat down their throats, they talk about his electric stuff and guaranteed stardom in a short time. The reality is less impressive, but not much so. Son of a former Cy Young award winner, Drabek projects some nice things in the future.

A hard throwing fireballer, there isn’t a former Jay he resembles as much as AJ Burnett. Drabek throws a nasty two seamer that he can locate down in the zone, and a plus curve that he uses to lock up batters. It’s not quite the knuckle-curve, but more of the twelve-six traditional over-arm breaking ball with a lot of late movement. He needs a third major league ready pitch to put him into Ace territory, but is working on a change up, and the Jays seem to develop a lot of high quality change up tossers.

If Drabek can twin a Marcum-like change with his heater and hook, he’s a very dangerous presence on the mound for a long time. The ability to change speeds and deliver a late breaking ball will handcuff batters, and could propel him to an elite level pitcher like many hope.



Travis D’Arnaud

D’Arnaud is one of the most intriguing elements of the trade, as he’s basically been below most scouts’ radar, and has been strongly coveted by Toronto. Their belief is that the farm system of the Phillies has mishandled his development, which is why their interest in the man is limited. Instead, the Jays believe strongly that D’Arnaud is not only a strong prospect, but a potential All-Star catcher, with a strong defensive game behind the dish and a bat that is promising power and consistency.

The catching of the Jays has long been suspect, with a raft of failed ‘can’t miss’ prospects littering the wayside like driftwood; Delgado was converted to first, Quiroz never learned how to hit and stay healthy, Phelps was over hyped, Diaz the same, Arencibia had a disappointing year and Jerolman’s bat hasn’t come around. The Jays have stitched together a catching solution for years, with veterans from Kevin Cash, Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas and now John Buck taking over the role as journeyman solutions.

For an organization that hasn’t developed a quality catcher since the days of Ernie Whitt (one of the impact catchers of the 80s) and Pat Borders (proof that intelligence on top of mediocre skills behind the dish can provide a long and successful career), the Jays are starved for a stalwart behind the dish, and in D’Arnaud they see that person. Not exciting, but defensively good, solid and improving at the plate, looking for a chance at high A and AA ball; we’ll see shortly who D’Arnaud really is, a plus defender with some pop, or another hope on a prayer.

Hard Medicine

Yes, we knew it was coming. Yes, we know it's what is best for the organization. Yes, we know it is best for a man who did nothing but play his heart out and through intense work, effort, and discipline made himself the best pitcher of his generation. We were getting ready for this last year, going to see his final game at home in the retro-powder blue uniform. We have come to know this day would come.

Leroy 'Doc' Halladay is now no longer a Toronto Blue Jay. The upside is that there are people who should be wetting the bed in the Yankees front office, and that godforsaken offensive hole that is the National League is about to learn what pitching in the AL East really tempers you to do. As well, in many years, we'll still get to watch him go into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay.

You know, it's like the breakup. It had to happen, it's the best thing for everyone involved, but that still doesn't mean you're not going to drink to much and end up inexplicably crying over that gap in the bookshelf where the set of Calvinos and Sartre and those awful Harry Dresden books she took her with sat.

Doc’s Last Stand

What happens if Alex Anthopoulos’ ‘No comments’ turn into no trade, like his predecessor Ricciardi? The Jays have said they want to move Halladay, given that he won’t resign, but if they don’t get an offer they feel equals fair market value, they’re willing to hang on and take the draft picks instead. While this might seem crazy from the onset, it actually makes a great deal of sense. There is no value in second tier prospects. Guys like Russ Adams and Joe Inglett are useful additions to any bench, but they are not what you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for. Having three guys with their ceiling being middle relievers, back end starters and part time or one tool utility players is the epitome of playing safe, failed, doomed trade tactics.

Two draft picks for the best in baseball? You might not get a thing. Or you might get another Aaron Hill or Ricky Romero, or, dare I say it, Leroy Halladay. It is a gamble, but a possible superstar is better than a likely twenty-fifth guy on the roster. There’s an old saying in marketing, which is ‘go big or go home’. The Jays need to either get a package that gives us a Montero or Bourjas level prospect, with a possible superstar upside, or say to hell with it, and risk all that new scouting and signing budget on getting the best out of the June 2011 draft.

So what do you need if Doc Halladay goes out for Opening Day to the mound in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform?

The Jays need catching, and Doumit looks like a very possible fit. Even if it takes a pitcher beyond Accardo, Doumit would make a strong starting catcher who is adequate behind the dish and a potential threat in the lineup. He’s not a long term option with Arencibia and Jerolman behind him, who represent far better defensive and potentially similar offense, but he’d be a solid two year presence for the Jays.

It is this scenario that you need to make two free agent signings, and roll the dice that Boston and New York’s age starts to catch up to them. The first is in centre field; Wells should be better in 2010, since it’s hard to be much worse, but it is getting clear that his days are a starting centre fielder are past. Moving him to right field would actually help his fielding, as it is largely his range that has suffered. He still possesses excellent glove control, a highly unrated and misunderstood factor in fielding, and has a slightly above average arm. We’ll miss the cannon throws of Rios and Bautista, but Wells would make an above average corner fielder.

That is where the ever affable Mike Cameron comes in. Even at 36, Cameron represents a strong defensive centre fielder with excellent range. He’s not the wizard that he was in 2001, but maintains above average defense in a premiere position. He’s fairly consistent with his bat, and would make an excellent two hole addition to the lineup, with his power and ability to take walks. Cameron’s age has almost doomed him to perpetual one year contracts, which is why a two year deal with a player option might be what would sway him to Toronto.

The second signing involves moving Overbay during the offseason, which is considered quite likely. Moving Adam Lind to first (and using Ruiz as his stopgap when you rest him or rotate him into the field to rest another player) opens up the DH spot, and the Jays need a powerful bat that can stabilize the four hole. While many people might question it, bringing in the former Jay Carlos Delgado would make a perfect signing. Delgado is still an offensive force, if a few steps from his prime. Prior to the Mets, he had a largely healthy career, and shows the same power and canny eye in limited at bats last year that have characterized his career. Much like Cameron, Delgado can’t hope for a long term contract, which is why a similar offer might tempt him to Toronto to finish his career.

Now, why waste money on two aging players? Well, because you can reasonably project them to be an immediate upgrade for 2010 and potentially 2011. Following that, buying out of the commitment is fairly easy financially, as they will likely enter full crash modes to end their careers.

Compared to potential big name agents, both of these men shouldn’t represent more than a combined $12m a year, which is two million less than BJ Ryan is earned for sitting at home and trying to find hats to fit his oversized melon. They reasonably represent an upgrade of about thirty home runs a year across the lineup, and will help carry the weak bat from short.

Most of all, it represents a roll of the dice at a playoff spot while Halladay is still here. This could be a mediocre team, but it also could be a very dangerous one, if Wells, Doumit and Encarnacion rebound, Hill and Lind prove last year was the right area for them to be in offensively, Snider lives up to his potential, and both Cameron and Delgado produce as expected. A team like this on a streak can roll over a Boston or New York on the right days, and maybe grab the playoff spot. If not, you’ve risked very little, and when Doc walks, you take the prospects and at least have given the fans a little hope and the sideshow of Delgado going for his 500th home run in Toronto.

Back In The Ring

When the Halladay trade talks heated up in July, at same time as a return to employment, this blog went off the rails. I make no excuses. The team played terribly, the season ended as a wrenching disappointment, and now in the off season, we’re looking at possibly getting cents on the dollar for arguably the best pitcher our system has ever produced. It’s enough to make you want to cut your own wrists with a Jays embossed set of cleats.

The team, now under Alex Anthopoulos, is going into 2010-2012 as very much a non-contender, looking to add prospects and scouting, while grinding through the remaining financial obligations on many of our existing contracts. While ‘fire sale’ is not the correct term for the situation, the Jays certainly aren’t about to emerge as a contender with a couple of strategic signings in the off season.

So, what do they do to give fans even the faintest hope of self-delusion for the 2010 season? There are a few potential scenarios and a few good pieces to consider adding to the team to at least provide an outside chance for next year, and help build to that young core that Anthopoulos sees the Jays being able to leverage a contending team from.

Possibility One: Goodbye Doc

The reality is that Doc is likely gone, and likely gone for less than his value, but more than two high level draft picks. While the Jays blogosphere in general is trying to come to terms with the idea that we’ll be looking at scrubs and castoffs coming back, the reality is a little different. The team trading for Doc gets the best pitcher in baseball for a year at below value, as well as the window to discuss a long term extension, and failing that, a pair of high level draft picks when he leaves. I know a lot of fans may not believe it, but that is well worth a top level prospect, no matter how talented. Deals suggesting Ian Kennedy and Brett Gardner as a legitimate return for Halladay are as ignorant as they are stupid. Any offer that is not offering an impact prospect at the core of the deal isn’t to be taken seriously.

For Jays fans, the ideal solution would be losing Doc to a National League team, but the reality is that there’s only one ‘must not’ team on the trade list, and that is Boston. As much as the idea of Halladay in pinstripes makes me vomit in my mouth, the Yankees will be as formidable next year with or without him. The only realistic outlook right now is that the Jays are playing for second place, and will be for a while. However, Halladay in Boston turns the Red Sox into another untouchable team, right when the cracks are starting to appear. Lowell and Ortiz are turning into offensive questions, they’ll be carrying a lame duck back up catcher, and they have holes at short, second (if Pedroria shifts over) and in left field. They have a stable trio of starters, and a very consistent fifth man in their rotation. Halladay-Beckett-Lester would become the most difficult series match up in baseball. Enough to at least keep them in the hunt against New York’s bats for the post season, and block the Jays from the wild card.

So, the most attractive teams interested would be the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Angels. Most other rumoured clubs either lack the financial position to make a serious push, are not defacto contenders next year, or don’t have the pieces to make a deal.

That would mean any deal with these teams would likely be built around Billingsley, Montaro, Drebrak, and Bourjas respectively. Assuming one of these teams uncovers the key element, Halladay would likely be willing to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause, moving on from Toronto. Depending on what comes back, it’s safe to assume any of these trades will involve an arm ready for the rotation. With Marcum returning, the Jays are in the position to look at signing a veteran from either the inning eating mid-rotation section or the high risk, high upside section. With a core of young arms like Cecil, Mills, Rep, Stewart, and Ray floating around the system, the potential returns of McGowan and Litsch, and the chance for re-emergence of Richmond and Purcey, the Jays have solid pitching depth to make some moves.

Randy Wolf, John Garland, and Jerrod Washburn would all be good fits into a Toronto rotation, bringing some veteran presence as well as decent arms. None of these guys projects past a number three starter in the AL East at best, but all three can throw a lot of innings, and all are solid control pitchers. Any of them would be worth a multi-year contract as an anchor for the rotation and the bullpen.

In the high risk, high reward camp, we have Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Kelvim Escobar. Each of them is capable of having a premium season (even despite Escobar’s age) and are dominant pitches when healthy. The trouble with all of them is that they very rarely are, and age is starting to catch up to the wear and tear. Signing any of them to a one year incentive laden contract represents a possible staff ace or a guy who doesn’t last through Spring Training.

If you’re moving Doc, you want to look at stop gaps that will give you the possibility of a contending season, or acquiring pieces now that you expect to produce in 2012. A good move would be to see if the Pirates are willing to trade for Doumit, and the best trade would come if Overbay and a prospect pitcher was enough to make it happen, even if the Jays ate the bulk of his salary. The Pirates need a first baseman, their offense is anemic, and Overbay’s tools would make a very nice fit for their team, especially if they were only on the hook for a couple of million. Doumit gives us a good young starting catcher with a high possible upside and at worst, a steady presence while we play another year’s worth of ‘will Arenciba/Jerolman be ready?'

With 1B open, you run a sort of twisted platoon between Ruiz, Dopirak and Lind, with Ruiz and Dopirak trading off first, and Ruiz slotting into DH when Lind takes a spell into LF. Give Dopirak and Ruiz 400AB at the major league level to see if they are legitimately ready. If Ruiz can perform the entire year like he did in the fall, the Jays have a cheap, powerful bat to bank on in 2011-2012. Likewise, if Dopirak can put everything together, another piece is in place, leaving the Jays nicely positioned to deal with a stronger crop of FAs in 2010-2011, in order to field a serious threat.

This team only has a very outside shot at the wild card. It would need Doumit to hit like he did in 2008, Ruiz and Dopirak to thrive as fulltime players, Wells to return to form, the rookies to be solid and their pitching returns from the trade and FA signing to have very solid years. It's a team of a lot of potential, which could as easily turn into a sixty-five win team as it could be a ninety win team.

Next, Possibility Two: Doc’s Last Stand…