To 2010 and Beyond!

One of the questions I hate hearing the most is ‘What reasons can you give Jays fans to bother coming out to watch the team this year?’ My response to it is usually along the lines of ‘because baseball is a beautiful thing to watch, you fucking limp-dicked bandwagon jumping whore-mongering would be Masshole cocksucker!’ Unfortunately, with the rules of modern media, Alex Anthopoulos is not allowed to scream that right before lamping Dick Griffin one. Putting aside my total hatred for people who judge the worth of baseball on post-season play, I’ve decided to give people five reasons to watch the Jays next year, and all of them are based off of recent moves by the Jays to augment their farm system.



Zach Stewart

Brought over in the Rolen trade (or better described as a steal), Zach Stewart will start at AAA Las Vegas next year, and is a potential front of the rotation starting pitcher for the Jays down the road. Stewart went to high-A Sarasota to start the season where he was truly overpowering. In 42.1 innings and 7 starts, Stewart posted a 2.13 ERA with a 32/8 K/BB ratio, 2.42 GB/FB ratio, and a 1.30 WHIP. In AAA ball, Stewart posted more human numbers, with an ugly WHIP of 167 and an ERA of around 2. However, Stewart was focused on controlling his walks, something he’s been inconsistent with, and once he becomes a little more comfortable down in the zone, his numbers should improved.

The key with Stewart is that he’s got a high end potential in his raw stuff. He gets a lot of strikeouts, especially on the quality of his slider, and is developing a change and a curve ball that will strongly help his 95mph+ heater. Stewart actually projects a little like Stieb; a power pitcher who can blow past batters, and if he adds an average off-speed pitch to his repertoire, will continue to strike out a lot of batters at any level.

Stewart features a nasty fastball and a hard biting slider, but as a starter he is working on a third pitch: his change-up. His slider is his obvious plus pitch, with scouts being extremely impressed by its movement and speed. His fastball has good sinking action to it and hitters are beating the ball into the ground.



Josh Roenicke

Roenicke will likely start 2010 in the Jays bullpen, currently in a mid-relief role. The high leverage pitcher has closer like power, with his 95mph fastball and almost splitter like cutter. His thirty odd innings in the majors last year between the Reds and the Jays saw him touched up a bit, but a lot of that is just the normal growing pains that come along with transitioning into the Bigs.

Roenicke certainly has the profile of a closer, and one of the very promising things about him is his clean mechanics. His approach to the plate is very efficient, which means that arm concerns are finally not a worry, and with the cutter as a go-to pitch, Roenicke could be a very effective option in late innings to shut down the opposition for an inning or two. He normally exhibits excellent control, keeping the ball down and limiting home runs.



Brett Wallace

The Jays seem to like their power hitters pasty and thick. Wallace is very much in the mould of Travis Snider as a guy who can just flat out rake, and has been doing so his entire minor league career. A left handed hitter with plus power, Wallace has posted some gaudy numbers and is most praised for his approach to the plate and ability to work counts. He strikes out a fair amount, which is to be expected with his power swing, but not so much that it is a serious concern. His patience means he’s unlikely to hit Adam Dunn territory in that regard.

Wallace owns a .293/.367/.455 line for his career, which is all the more impressive since it is mostly based at AAA level. His power as well as his ability to take a walk makes him a dangerous middle of the lineup bat, adding more left handed power to the already impressive Jays lefties.

A huge powerfully built guy, Wallace is currently a third baseman. While most people say he’s built for first base, several of his coaches have been clear that he’s got the athleticism and glove to stick at the hot corner. Either way, his bat is the real value, and the fact that he’s not limited to a DH role is an added bonus.



Kyle Drabek

Drabek is the biggest, swingingest dick in this whole trade. When sports writers in Southern Pennsylvania aren’t busy unlocking their jaws to slip his manmeat down their throats, they talk about his electric stuff and guaranteed stardom in a short time. The reality is less impressive, but not much so. Son of a former Cy Young award winner, Drabek projects some nice things in the future.

A hard throwing fireballer, there isn’t a former Jay he resembles as much as AJ Burnett. Drabek throws a nasty two seamer that he can locate down in the zone, and a plus curve that he uses to lock up batters. It’s not quite the knuckle-curve, but more of the twelve-six traditional over-arm breaking ball with a lot of late movement. He needs a third major league ready pitch to put him into Ace territory, but is working on a change up, and the Jays seem to develop a lot of high quality change up tossers.

If Drabek can twin a Marcum-like change with his heater and hook, he’s a very dangerous presence on the mound for a long time. The ability to change speeds and deliver a late breaking ball will handcuff batters, and could propel him to an elite level pitcher like many hope.



Travis D’Arnaud

D’Arnaud is one of the most intriguing elements of the trade, as he’s basically been below most scouts’ radar, and has been strongly coveted by Toronto. Their belief is that the farm system of the Phillies has mishandled his development, which is why their interest in the man is limited. Instead, the Jays believe strongly that D’Arnaud is not only a strong prospect, but a potential All-Star catcher, with a strong defensive game behind the dish and a bat that is promising power and consistency.

The catching of the Jays has long been suspect, with a raft of failed ‘can’t miss’ prospects littering the wayside like driftwood; Delgado was converted to first, Quiroz never learned how to hit and stay healthy, Phelps was over hyped, Diaz the same, Arencibia had a disappointing year and Jerolman’s bat hasn’t come around. The Jays have stitched together a catching solution for years, with veterans from Kevin Cash, Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas and now John Buck taking over the role as journeyman solutions.

For an organization that hasn’t developed a quality catcher since the days of Ernie Whitt (one of the impact catchers of the 80s) and Pat Borders (proof that intelligence on top of mediocre skills behind the dish can provide a long and successful career), the Jays are starved for a stalwart behind the dish, and in D’Arnaud they see that person. Not exciting, but defensively good, solid and improving at the plate, looking for a chance at high A and AA ball; we’ll see shortly who D’Arnaud really is, a plus defender with some pop, or another hope on a prayer.

Hard Medicine

Yes, we knew it was coming. Yes, we know it's what is best for the organization. Yes, we know it is best for a man who did nothing but play his heart out and through intense work, effort, and discipline made himself the best pitcher of his generation. We were getting ready for this last year, going to see his final game at home in the retro-powder blue uniform. We have come to know this day would come.

Leroy 'Doc' Halladay is now no longer a Toronto Blue Jay. The upside is that there are people who should be wetting the bed in the Yankees front office, and that godforsaken offensive hole that is the National League is about to learn what pitching in the AL East really tempers you to do. As well, in many years, we'll still get to watch him go into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay.

You know, it's like the breakup. It had to happen, it's the best thing for everyone involved, but that still doesn't mean you're not going to drink to much and end up inexplicably crying over that gap in the bookshelf where the set of Calvinos and Sartre and those awful Harry Dresden books she took her with sat.

Doc’s Last Stand

What happens if Alex Anthopoulos’ ‘No comments’ turn into no trade, like his predecessor Ricciardi? The Jays have said they want to move Halladay, given that he won’t resign, but if they don’t get an offer they feel equals fair market value, they’re willing to hang on and take the draft picks instead. While this might seem crazy from the onset, it actually makes a great deal of sense. There is no value in second tier prospects. Guys like Russ Adams and Joe Inglett are useful additions to any bench, but they are not what you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for. Having three guys with their ceiling being middle relievers, back end starters and part time or one tool utility players is the epitome of playing safe, failed, doomed trade tactics.

Two draft picks for the best in baseball? You might not get a thing. Or you might get another Aaron Hill or Ricky Romero, or, dare I say it, Leroy Halladay. It is a gamble, but a possible superstar is better than a likely twenty-fifth guy on the roster. There’s an old saying in marketing, which is ‘go big or go home’. The Jays need to either get a package that gives us a Montero or Bourjas level prospect, with a possible superstar upside, or say to hell with it, and risk all that new scouting and signing budget on getting the best out of the June 2011 draft.

So what do you need if Doc Halladay goes out for Opening Day to the mound in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform?

The Jays need catching, and Doumit looks like a very possible fit. Even if it takes a pitcher beyond Accardo, Doumit would make a strong starting catcher who is adequate behind the dish and a potential threat in the lineup. He’s not a long term option with Arencibia and Jerolman behind him, who represent far better defensive and potentially similar offense, but he’d be a solid two year presence for the Jays.

It is this scenario that you need to make two free agent signings, and roll the dice that Boston and New York’s age starts to catch up to them. The first is in centre field; Wells should be better in 2010, since it’s hard to be much worse, but it is getting clear that his days are a starting centre fielder are past. Moving him to right field would actually help his fielding, as it is largely his range that has suffered. He still possesses excellent glove control, a highly unrated and misunderstood factor in fielding, and has a slightly above average arm. We’ll miss the cannon throws of Rios and Bautista, but Wells would make an above average corner fielder.

That is where the ever affable Mike Cameron comes in. Even at 36, Cameron represents a strong defensive centre fielder with excellent range. He’s not the wizard that he was in 2001, but maintains above average defense in a premiere position. He’s fairly consistent with his bat, and would make an excellent two hole addition to the lineup, with his power and ability to take walks. Cameron’s age has almost doomed him to perpetual one year contracts, which is why a two year deal with a player option might be what would sway him to Toronto.

The second signing involves moving Overbay during the offseason, which is considered quite likely. Moving Adam Lind to first (and using Ruiz as his stopgap when you rest him or rotate him into the field to rest another player) opens up the DH spot, and the Jays need a powerful bat that can stabilize the four hole. While many people might question it, bringing in the former Jay Carlos Delgado would make a perfect signing. Delgado is still an offensive force, if a few steps from his prime. Prior to the Mets, he had a largely healthy career, and shows the same power and canny eye in limited at bats last year that have characterized his career. Much like Cameron, Delgado can’t hope for a long term contract, which is why a similar offer might tempt him to Toronto to finish his career.

Now, why waste money on two aging players? Well, because you can reasonably project them to be an immediate upgrade for 2010 and potentially 2011. Following that, buying out of the commitment is fairly easy financially, as they will likely enter full crash modes to end their careers.

Compared to potential big name agents, both of these men shouldn’t represent more than a combined $12m a year, which is two million less than BJ Ryan is earned for sitting at home and trying to find hats to fit his oversized melon. They reasonably represent an upgrade of about thirty home runs a year across the lineup, and will help carry the weak bat from short.

Most of all, it represents a roll of the dice at a playoff spot while Halladay is still here. This could be a mediocre team, but it also could be a very dangerous one, if Wells, Doumit and Encarnacion rebound, Hill and Lind prove last year was the right area for them to be in offensively, Snider lives up to his potential, and both Cameron and Delgado produce as expected. A team like this on a streak can roll over a Boston or New York on the right days, and maybe grab the playoff spot. If not, you’ve risked very little, and when Doc walks, you take the prospects and at least have given the fans a little hope and the sideshow of Delgado going for his 500th home run in Toronto.

Back In The Ring

When the Halladay trade talks heated up in July, at same time as a return to employment, this blog went off the rails. I make no excuses. The team played terribly, the season ended as a wrenching disappointment, and now in the off season, we’re looking at possibly getting cents on the dollar for arguably the best pitcher our system has ever produced. It’s enough to make you want to cut your own wrists with a Jays embossed set of cleats.

The team, now under Alex Anthopoulos, is going into 2010-2012 as very much a non-contender, looking to add prospects and scouting, while grinding through the remaining financial obligations on many of our existing contracts. While ‘fire sale’ is not the correct term for the situation, the Jays certainly aren’t about to emerge as a contender with a couple of strategic signings in the off season.

So, what do they do to give fans even the faintest hope of self-delusion for the 2010 season? There are a few potential scenarios and a few good pieces to consider adding to the team to at least provide an outside chance for next year, and help build to that young core that Anthopoulos sees the Jays being able to leverage a contending team from.

Possibility One: Goodbye Doc

The reality is that Doc is likely gone, and likely gone for less than his value, but more than two high level draft picks. While the Jays blogosphere in general is trying to come to terms with the idea that we’ll be looking at scrubs and castoffs coming back, the reality is a little different. The team trading for Doc gets the best pitcher in baseball for a year at below value, as well as the window to discuss a long term extension, and failing that, a pair of high level draft picks when he leaves. I know a lot of fans may not believe it, but that is well worth a top level prospect, no matter how talented. Deals suggesting Ian Kennedy and Brett Gardner as a legitimate return for Halladay are as ignorant as they are stupid. Any offer that is not offering an impact prospect at the core of the deal isn’t to be taken seriously.

For Jays fans, the ideal solution would be losing Doc to a National League team, but the reality is that there’s only one ‘must not’ team on the trade list, and that is Boston. As much as the idea of Halladay in pinstripes makes me vomit in my mouth, the Yankees will be as formidable next year with or without him. The only realistic outlook right now is that the Jays are playing for second place, and will be for a while. However, Halladay in Boston turns the Red Sox into another untouchable team, right when the cracks are starting to appear. Lowell and Ortiz are turning into offensive questions, they’ll be carrying a lame duck back up catcher, and they have holes at short, second (if Pedroria shifts over) and in left field. They have a stable trio of starters, and a very consistent fifth man in their rotation. Halladay-Beckett-Lester would become the most difficult series match up in baseball. Enough to at least keep them in the hunt against New York’s bats for the post season, and block the Jays from the wild card.

So, the most attractive teams interested would be the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Angels. Most other rumoured clubs either lack the financial position to make a serious push, are not defacto contenders next year, or don’t have the pieces to make a deal.

That would mean any deal with these teams would likely be built around Billingsley, Montaro, Drebrak, and Bourjas respectively. Assuming one of these teams uncovers the key element, Halladay would likely be willing to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause, moving on from Toronto. Depending on what comes back, it’s safe to assume any of these trades will involve an arm ready for the rotation. With Marcum returning, the Jays are in the position to look at signing a veteran from either the inning eating mid-rotation section or the high risk, high upside section. With a core of young arms like Cecil, Mills, Rep, Stewart, and Ray floating around the system, the potential returns of McGowan and Litsch, and the chance for re-emergence of Richmond and Purcey, the Jays have solid pitching depth to make some moves.

Randy Wolf, John Garland, and Jerrod Washburn would all be good fits into a Toronto rotation, bringing some veteran presence as well as decent arms. None of these guys projects past a number three starter in the AL East at best, but all three can throw a lot of innings, and all are solid control pitchers. Any of them would be worth a multi-year contract as an anchor for the rotation and the bullpen.

In the high risk, high reward camp, we have Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Kelvim Escobar. Each of them is capable of having a premium season (even despite Escobar’s age) and are dominant pitches when healthy. The trouble with all of them is that they very rarely are, and age is starting to catch up to the wear and tear. Signing any of them to a one year incentive laden contract represents a possible staff ace or a guy who doesn’t last through Spring Training.

If you’re moving Doc, you want to look at stop gaps that will give you the possibility of a contending season, or acquiring pieces now that you expect to produce in 2012. A good move would be to see if the Pirates are willing to trade for Doumit, and the best trade would come if Overbay and a prospect pitcher was enough to make it happen, even if the Jays ate the bulk of his salary. The Pirates need a first baseman, their offense is anemic, and Overbay’s tools would make a very nice fit for their team, especially if they were only on the hook for a couple of million. Doumit gives us a good young starting catcher with a high possible upside and at worst, a steady presence while we play another year’s worth of ‘will Arenciba/Jerolman be ready?'

With 1B open, you run a sort of twisted platoon between Ruiz, Dopirak and Lind, with Ruiz and Dopirak trading off first, and Ruiz slotting into DH when Lind takes a spell into LF. Give Dopirak and Ruiz 400AB at the major league level to see if they are legitimately ready. If Ruiz can perform the entire year like he did in the fall, the Jays have a cheap, powerful bat to bank on in 2011-2012. Likewise, if Dopirak can put everything together, another piece is in place, leaving the Jays nicely positioned to deal with a stronger crop of FAs in 2010-2011, in order to field a serious threat.

This team only has a very outside shot at the wild card. It would need Doumit to hit like he did in 2008, Ruiz and Dopirak to thrive as fulltime players, Wells to return to form, the rookies to be solid and their pitching returns from the trade and FA signing to have very solid years. It's a team of a lot of potential, which could as easily turn into a sixty-five win team as it could be a ninety win team.

Next, Possibility Two: Doc’s Last Stand…

Trading Doc

Like many Jays bloggers, the appalling fall from grace and the agony of waiting out the fate of Roy Halladay has sucked all the literary will from my normal joy of pontificating on the fortunes of the team. The biggest problem hasn't even been that the Jays have been bad. It's more that the Jays seem destined to tank that big hit or key out that has decided most of the games this month.

The awful July record is even more dismaying when you consider the fact that it hasn't been getting blown out by opponents. It is the steady stream of games lost by a single run, where the Jays have been in the position to take the win, only to fall short time after time. The fluke nature of some of the wins, like Ichiro dropping the head of the bat on a pitch he was obviously fooled by, and blooping it over Scutaro's head, have been the gut wrenching narratives that this punishing month has left us with. Game we could have won; games we should have won.

Then, the idea of trading the Doc.

Now, from a strictly objective perspective, trading Doc at this point is likely the smartest thing the Jays could do. A solid 3B prospect, a couple of pitchers, and a catcher would fill some holes in the farm system, and give the Jays a solid core for 2012-2014. It would also clear 15mil from the payroll, which could be used to offset Wells' raise next year.

But, being a fan is by nature waiving objectivity when considering such a deal. Halladay is the defacto face of the franchise. More than that, the nature of the man fits both the Toronto and Canadian images of our self-identity so perfectly; modest, hard-working, dedicated, loyal, and generous. The quality of his arm is matched with his old school endurance, ability to finish games, and his utterly disciplined work ethic. Off the field, he's a regular fixture in the team's charity work. His wife is a strong supporter of the city. There's never been a hint of controversy surrounding Doc; his image that of the honest, uncompromised player in a league that has been hobbled with dishonest men and performance enhancing drugs. Boston's famed 'Curse of the Bambino' fell largely due to two sluggers positively testing for PEDs during the season before, and Hank Aaron's home run record, one of the most treasured records in sports, was shattered by a man so obviously the benefactor of the best steroids money can buy that it was met with mockery and scorn.

In many ways, Doc represents a link to baseball for the Canadian fan, most of whom grew up with the Jays appearing at some point to balance the Expos as 'home' teams for the country. Unlike the United States 'faith of 50 million' baseball culture, Canadian heroes came from the rink instead of the diamond. It was often hard to feel the connection to the kind of legacy that one baseball possesses; that flawed, intriguing and engrossing history which ties fans and players to the past more closely than any other sport. We don't have a Ted Williams to step out on his 70th birthday to remind us of what came before. Or Yogi Berra as a link to the greatness our fathers and grandfathers watched. As a still young franchise in a country in which the sport is at best a second option, Canadian baseball fans have sometimes struggled for identity. And then came the Doc.

It is hard not to wax rhapsodic about Halladay, and equally difficult not to compare him to the greats of old. In Halladay, we have the kind of starter that hasn't existed in baseball in two decades. A workhorse who wants to finish his own work. A former fireballer that decided control and contact were more valuable than the strike-out. A fast worker, blissfully free of time consuming antics on the mound, and displays of ego-stroking anger. An intensity during game day in his face that mirrors the classic visage of Bob Gibson. A professional work ethic, proud of his craft and taking nothing for granted. A role model in an age of flawed heroes, maintaining his integrity in the field and his generosity with children off of it. An old school pitcher that seems to have stepped out of an earlier time, taking on the modern baseball world.

Baseball, uniquely, is tied to its early days very closely. One can look at the career of a Peewee Reese and wonder how he'd fare in today's games, or make statistical comparisons between pitchers over a century. The popularity of games and fantasy programs that offer the ability to mix and match with current and past players are extremely popular amoungst fans. As a sport, baseball lives in its past as much as it does in the current time, and Halladay speaks to us in both ways.

Expositional handjobs aside, Halladay's worth to Toronto does extend past his talent. He's become iconic to the Jays in a way that few players have even approached in the franchise's history. Losing him would require a re-invention in the very way the Jays are viewed and interact with their fans.

Dazed and Confused

The Blue Jays road trip resembles a boxer suddenly forced to dummy up and try to rope-a-dope his way out of a vicious beating, hoping for a mistake to exploit and get himself out of the round. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened for the Jays, allowing even the misbegotten Orioles to pummel the bullpen into coughing up a five run lead for Halladay on the way to a 12-10 loss.

For the first time since he came on board, Cito Gaston is starting to draw criticism for his use of the bullpen by the media, and hot starts by Hill and Lind have not been picked up by slower starters like Wells and Rios. Alex especially, after looking like he'd been on the verge of rediscovering his power and contact, has completely backslid during the road trip. His complex swing now resembles a tumbling accordion, and he's been chasing Vernon's old nemesis, the high fastball, with nothing to show for it.

Well's RISP woes continue, although he hasn't been swinging the bat badly. In fact, the entire club has just been unable to find that big hit in ballgames, wasting opportunity after opportunity against weak pitchers and lame bullpens. The club has tumbled all the way to third in the standings, and now it is possible Downs might be looking at the DL for a strained hamstring.

However, all is not lost. Despite a nine-game losing skid, the Jays are only two games back of Boston, which is a tremendous statement about how strong this club was coming into the streak. Other than the RISP results, the Jays haven't played badly, even haven't pitched or hit that badly. The key is the lack of extra base hits and hits with RISP that has allowed weaker clubs to edge us. The bullpen has been very weak during the trip, and needs some rest to reset itself. I'd be surprised if Accardo isn't called up very soon to help anchor them.

Three games against the Bosox this weekend. If the Jays can bounce back, it's entirely possible we could start to reverse some of the damage, and climb a few games up to first again.

Back to May 2008

Robert Ray, praying for it to end quickly and painlessly.

The Jays found themselves on the wrong end of a sweep tonight, at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The most unfortunate part about it is, with their other series lost to New York, the mindless braying about the Blue Jays being unable to compete against the AL East is now extended likely all the way to the All-Star Break.

To be honest, in the series against the Bosox, the Jays looked snakebitten. Tallet pitched a gem against Boston, mostly shutting them down, only to have Wakefield have one of his on nights when his knuckleball is all but unhittable for any kind of power. Then the Jays drill Penny all over the park, but can't find the gaps or the fences, while Cecil has one of the most impressive pitching meltdowns since the good old days of Josh Towers. Finally, Lester get batted around, but in each inning, the Jays can't find a way to cash home baserunners, and we lose 5-1 with a not so good outing by Ray.

Not being able to hit once we have men in scoring position? It looked like a little trip on the wayback machine to May 2008.

In all honesty though, while the losses hurt, it's not as bad as it could be. The Jays were only blown out in one game, and the red Sox bullpen nearly gave it back up to us. Games one and three were games the Jays could (and argubly should) have won, but our hitting jammed up. It's possible that the pressure of the series had the Jays trying too hard, and in the case of both Cecil and Ray, they each had a bad inning that did them in.

The positive is that the Jays are still hitting, although the power wasn't there in Boston. It's quite a feat to put up 11 hits and only have a run to show for it. Or 14 the night before for only 3 runs. In fact, despite being outscored 15-5 on the series, the Jays outhit the Bosox 30-29. As much as I hit to say it, sometimes, you just have bad luck. It's a little worrisome about the lack of extrabase hits during the series, but the Jays are making good contact, and the Sox matched up a veteran knuckleballer, a legitimate number two starter, and their ace young lefty against a reliever, a AAA prospect, and a AA prospect. This does not fill me with dread for the future.

Lunchbox has been sent down to AAA, as expected, while the Jays roll into Atlanta for the utterly worthless spectacle of interleague play. I'm kind of excited about hearing Bobby Cox get interviewed by Jerry Howarth about the 80s Jays, but gamewise, I couldn't be more disinterested. There is noise that Russ Adams might be called up, for the left-handed bat and his strong performance so far in Las Vegas. My guess would be that Snider will be down mostly to correct his swing a bit, and give him a boost to come back up. You'd hope that would be in time for the series against Boston at home, assuming that he stops swinging at outside breaking balls. Over his last ten games, he's hit .269, with only one extra base hit and ten Ks, which is really scuffling at the plate.

It's very possible we'll see Ray or Cecil sent down soon, to make way for Janssen. Both pitchers have certainly impressed the Jays, but there's no point in chewing up service time when they're getting hit. Possibly Ray will have his start against Baltimore, and Cecil will need to have a second bad outing to head up going back down, but Janssen is a veteran presence, and his numbers are too good in AAA to bolster a rookie ahead of him.