Goodbye Brandon, Hello Brandon

Anthopoulos certainly has made good on his plan, dealing for quality, young, controllable players who can all come up at the same time to forge a core team for the Toronto Blue Jays. So far, he’s dealt for three first round draft picks from the 2006 draft, injecting a much needed influx of high end talent and potential into the Jays’ farm system. His latest swap, of Brandon ‘Mensa’ League for Brandon Morrow, is a good example of the kinds of gambles that he must make in order to build a young competitive core quickly. League, who has all the stuff to be a dominant closer, is well into his arbitration years and while very effective in 2009, simply isn’t needed over the next two years. Morrow, who has shown high end potential but has not been able to effectively muster it yet, gets a second chance to establish himself as a starter with Toronto.

Morrow will likely be helped by the change of scene. Seattle fans have never forgiven him for not being Tim Lincecum, who was drafted after him. The criticism of his abilities, with only the odd sprinklings of admissions that rushing him into the majors and treating him like a yoyo between starting and relief, have been loud in the fanbase, and without cease from the Seattle press for whom Morrow’s development was never fast enough. Add on to that the fact that fans ridiculed him for suffering from diabetes, as if it was some kind of moral lacking, and you have an all together poisonous miasma in which to try and work.

Anthopoulos’ initial comments were not surprisingly well taken by the young pitcher. The Jays essential line is that they see him as being a mid to top rotation starting pitcher, and if that means returning to the minors to rebuild his endurance, focus on his control, and develop some confidence, that’s what they’re willing to do.

"I was never really allowed to develop as a starter the way I and a lot of other people thought I should be allowed to,'' Morrow said. "Hopefully, this new chance means I get to develop as a starter more. Changing roles has just been detrimental to me."

Fortunately, the Jays timeline for Morrow works to his advantage. There is no pressure for him to break camp as part of the starting rotation in the mind of the front office, allowing him the freedom to work on his secondary pitches without having a half dozen première offenses tee off on his mistakes.

“We’ll see what we have in the spring,” said Anthopoulos. “With a guy like Brandon Morrow, we’re going to do what’s best for him. We expect him to come in and compete, and win a starting spot next spring. That being said, if after seeing him and spending time with him we feel like he needs a little time, we might need to send him down.”

Morrow features a devastating four seam fastball and a good power curve that dives away from right-handers. His other two pitches, a change and a slider, are somewhere between inconsistent and ineffectual at the moment. Although, in the fall of 2008, Morrow one hit the Yankees by mixing all four pitches effectively to dominate their lineup. Much like Burnett, consistency is his biggest weakness, both in terms of control and health. Morrow’s 4.9BB/9 is almost double what a starting pitcher should be, especially for a fastball artist. He’ll need to get the ball down and under control first, and then focus on developing his secondary pitches so he’s got the ability to blow the heater past following the setup pitch.

To 2010 and Beyond!

One of the questions I hate hearing the most is ‘What reasons can you give Jays fans to bother coming out to watch the team this year?’ My response to it is usually along the lines of ‘because baseball is a beautiful thing to watch, you fucking limp-dicked bandwagon jumping whore-mongering would be Masshole cocksucker!’ Unfortunately, with the rules of modern media, Alex Anthopoulos is not allowed to scream that right before lamping Dick Griffin one. Putting aside my total hatred for people who judge the worth of baseball on post-season play, I’ve decided to give people five reasons to watch the Jays next year, and all of them are based off of recent moves by the Jays to augment their farm system.



Zach Stewart

Brought over in the Rolen trade (or better described as a steal), Zach Stewart will start at AAA Las Vegas next year, and is a potential front of the rotation starting pitcher for the Jays down the road. Stewart went to high-A Sarasota to start the season where he was truly overpowering. In 42.1 innings and 7 starts, Stewart posted a 2.13 ERA with a 32/8 K/BB ratio, 2.42 GB/FB ratio, and a 1.30 WHIP. In AAA ball, Stewart posted more human numbers, with an ugly WHIP of 167 and an ERA of around 2. However, Stewart was focused on controlling his walks, something he’s been inconsistent with, and once he becomes a little more comfortable down in the zone, his numbers should improved.

The key with Stewart is that he’s got a high end potential in his raw stuff. He gets a lot of strikeouts, especially on the quality of his slider, and is developing a change and a curve ball that will strongly help his 95mph+ heater. Stewart actually projects a little like Stieb; a power pitcher who can blow past batters, and if he adds an average off-speed pitch to his repertoire, will continue to strike out a lot of batters at any level.

Stewart features a nasty fastball and a hard biting slider, but as a starter he is working on a third pitch: his change-up. His slider is his obvious plus pitch, with scouts being extremely impressed by its movement and speed. His fastball has good sinking action to it and hitters are beating the ball into the ground.



Josh Roenicke

Roenicke will likely start 2010 in the Jays bullpen, currently in a mid-relief role. The high leverage pitcher has closer like power, with his 95mph fastball and almost splitter like cutter. His thirty odd innings in the majors last year between the Reds and the Jays saw him touched up a bit, but a lot of that is just the normal growing pains that come along with transitioning into the Bigs.

Roenicke certainly has the profile of a closer, and one of the very promising things about him is his clean mechanics. His approach to the plate is very efficient, which means that arm concerns are finally not a worry, and with the cutter as a go-to pitch, Roenicke could be a very effective option in late innings to shut down the opposition for an inning or two. He normally exhibits excellent control, keeping the ball down and limiting home runs.



Brett Wallace

The Jays seem to like their power hitters pasty and thick. Wallace is very much in the mould of Travis Snider as a guy who can just flat out rake, and has been doing so his entire minor league career. A left handed hitter with plus power, Wallace has posted some gaudy numbers and is most praised for his approach to the plate and ability to work counts. He strikes out a fair amount, which is to be expected with his power swing, but not so much that it is a serious concern. His patience means he’s unlikely to hit Adam Dunn territory in that regard.

Wallace owns a .293/.367/.455 line for his career, which is all the more impressive since it is mostly based at AAA level. His power as well as his ability to take a walk makes him a dangerous middle of the lineup bat, adding more left handed power to the already impressive Jays lefties.

A huge powerfully built guy, Wallace is currently a third baseman. While most people say he’s built for first base, several of his coaches have been clear that he’s got the athleticism and glove to stick at the hot corner. Either way, his bat is the real value, and the fact that he’s not limited to a DH role is an added bonus.



Kyle Drabek

Drabek is the biggest, swingingest dick in this whole trade. When sports writers in Southern Pennsylvania aren’t busy unlocking their jaws to slip his manmeat down their throats, they talk about his electric stuff and guaranteed stardom in a short time. The reality is less impressive, but not much so. Son of a former Cy Young award winner, Drabek projects some nice things in the future.

A hard throwing fireballer, there isn’t a former Jay he resembles as much as AJ Burnett. Drabek throws a nasty two seamer that he can locate down in the zone, and a plus curve that he uses to lock up batters. It’s not quite the knuckle-curve, but more of the twelve-six traditional over-arm breaking ball with a lot of late movement. He needs a third major league ready pitch to put him into Ace territory, but is working on a change up, and the Jays seem to develop a lot of high quality change up tossers.

If Drabek can twin a Marcum-like change with his heater and hook, he’s a very dangerous presence on the mound for a long time. The ability to change speeds and deliver a late breaking ball will handcuff batters, and could propel him to an elite level pitcher like many hope.



Travis D’Arnaud

D’Arnaud is one of the most intriguing elements of the trade, as he’s basically been below most scouts’ radar, and has been strongly coveted by Toronto. Their belief is that the farm system of the Phillies has mishandled his development, which is why their interest in the man is limited. Instead, the Jays believe strongly that D’Arnaud is not only a strong prospect, but a potential All-Star catcher, with a strong defensive game behind the dish and a bat that is promising power and consistency.

The catching of the Jays has long been suspect, with a raft of failed ‘can’t miss’ prospects littering the wayside like driftwood; Delgado was converted to first, Quiroz never learned how to hit and stay healthy, Phelps was over hyped, Diaz the same, Arencibia had a disappointing year and Jerolman’s bat hasn’t come around. The Jays have stitched together a catching solution for years, with veterans from Kevin Cash, Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas and now John Buck taking over the role as journeyman solutions.

For an organization that hasn’t developed a quality catcher since the days of Ernie Whitt (one of the impact catchers of the 80s) and Pat Borders (proof that intelligence on top of mediocre skills behind the dish can provide a long and successful career), the Jays are starved for a stalwart behind the dish, and in D’Arnaud they see that person. Not exciting, but defensively good, solid and improving at the plate, looking for a chance at high A and AA ball; we’ll see shortly who D’Arnaud really is, a plus defender with some pop, or another hope on a prayer.

Hard Medicine

Yes, we knew it was coming. Yes, we know it's what is best for the organization. Yes, we know it is best for a man who did nothing but play his heart out and through intense work, effort, and discipline made himself the best pitcher of his generation. We were getting ready for this last year, going to see his final game at home in the retro-powder blue uniform. We have come to know this day would come.

Leroy 'Doc' Halladay is now no longer a Toronto Blue Jay. The upside is that there are people who should be wetting the bed in the Yankees front office, and that godforsaken offensive hole that is the National League is about to learn what pitching in the AL East really tempers you to do. As well, in many years, we'll still get to watch him go into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay.

You know, it's like the breakup. It had to happen, it's the best thing for everyone involved, but that still doesn't mean you're not going to drink to much and end up inexplicably crying over that gap in the bookshelf where the set of Calvinos and Sartre and those awful Harry Dresden books she took her with sat.

Doc’s Last Stand

What happens if Alex Anthopoulos’ ‘No comments’ turn into no trade, like his predecessor Ricciardi? The Jays have said they want to move Halladay, given that he won’t resign, but if they don’t get an offer they feel equals fair market value, they’re willing to hang on and take the draft picks instead. While this might seem crazy from the onset, it actually makes a great deal of sense. There is no value in second tier prospects. Guys like Russ Adams and Joe Inglett are useful additions to any bench, but they are not what you trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for. Having three guys with their ceiling being middle relievers, back end starters and part time or one tool utility players is the epitome of playing safe, failed, doomed trade tactics.

Two draft picks for the best in baseball? You might not get a thing. Or you might get another Aaron Hill or Ricky Romero, or, dare I say it, Leroy Halladay. It is a gamble, but a possible superstar is better than a likely twenty-fifth guy on the roster. There’s an old saying in marketing, which is ‘go big or go home’. The Jays need to either get a package that gives us a Montero or Bourjas level prospect, with a possible superstar upside, or say to hell with it, and risk all that new scouting and signing budget on getting the best out of the June 2011 draft.

So what do you need if Doc Halladay goes out for Opening Day to the mound in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform?

The Jays need catching, and Doumit looks like a very possible fit. Even if it takes a pitcher beyond Accardo, Doumit would make a strong starting catcher who is adequate behind the dish and a potential threat in the lineup. He’s not a long term option with Arencibia and Jerolman behind him, who represent far better defensive and potentially similar offense, but he’d be a solid two year presence for the Jays.

It is this scenario that you need to make two free agent signings, and roll the dice that Boston and New York’s age starts to catch up to them. The first is in centre field; Wells should be better in 2010, since it’s hard to be much worse, but it is getting clear that his days are a starting centre fielder are past. Moving him to right field would actually help his fielding, as it is largely his range that has suffered. He still possesses excellent glove control, a highly unrated and misunderstood factor in fielding, and has a slightly above average arm. We’ll miss the cannon throws of Rios and Bautista, but Wells would make an above average corner fielder.

That is where the ever affable Mike Cameron comes in. Even at 36, Cameron represents a strong defensive centre fielder with excellent range. He’s not the wizard that he was in 2001, but maintains above average defense in a premiere position. He’s fairly consistent with his bat, and would make an excellent two hole addition to the lineup, with his power and ability to take walks. Cameron’s age has almost doomed him to perpetual one year contracts, which is why a two year deal with a player option might be what would sway him to Toronto.

The second signing involves moving Overbay during the offseason, which is considered quite likely. Moving Adam Lind to first (and using Ruiz as his stopgap when you rest him or rotate him into the field to rest another player) opens up the DH spot, and the Jays need a powerful bat that can stabilize the four hole. While many people might question it, bringing in the former Jay Carlos Delgado would make a perfect signing. Delgado is still an offensive force, if a few steps from his prime. Prior to the Mets, he had a largely healthy career, and shows the same power and canny eye in limited at bats last year that have characterized his career. Much like Cameron, Delgado can’t hope for a long term contract, which is why a similar offer might tempt him to Toronto to finish his career.

Now, why waste money on two aging players? Well, because you can reasonably project them to be an immediate upgrade for 2010 and potentially 2011. Following that, buying out of the commitment is fairly easy financially, as they will likely enter full crash modes to end their careers.

Compared to potential big name agents, both of these men shouldn’t represent more than a combined $12m a year, which is two million less than BJ Ryan is earned for sitting at home and trying to find hats to fit his oversized melon. They reasonably represent an upgrade of about thirty home runs a year across the lineup, and will help carry the weak bat from short.

Most of all, it represents a roll of the dice at a playoff spot while Halladay is still here. This could be a mediocre team, but it also could be a very dangerous one, if Wells, Doumit and Encarnacion rebound, Hill and Lind prove last year was the right area for them to be in offensively, Snider lives up to his potential, and both Cameron and Delgado produce as expected. A team like this on a streak can roll over a Boston or New York on the right days, and maybe grab the playoff spot. If not, you’ve risked very little, and when Doc walks, you take the prospects and at least have given the fans a little hope and the sideshow of Delgado going for his 500th home run in Toronto.

Back In The Ring

When the Halladay trade talks heated up in July, at same time as a return to employment, this blog went off the rails. I make no excuses. The team played terribly, the season ended as a wrenching disappointment, and now in the off season, we’re looking at possibly getting cents on the dollar for arguably the best pitcher our system has ever produced. It’s enough to make you want to cut your own wrists with a Jays embossed set of cleats.

The team, now under Alex Anthopoulos, is going into 2010-2012 as very much a non-contender, looking to add prospects and scouting, while grinding through the remaining financial obligations on many of our existing contracts. While ‘fire sale’ is not the correct term for the situation, the Jays certainly aren’t about to emerge as a contender with a couple of strategic signings in the off season.

So, what do they do to give fans even the faintest hope of self-delusion for the 2010 season? There are a few potential scenarios and a few good pieces to consider adding to the team to at least provide an outside chance for next year, and help build to that young core that Anthopoulos sees the Jays being able to leverage a contending team from.

Possibility One: Goodbye Doc

The reality is that Doc is likely gone, and likely gone for less than his value, but more than two high level draft picks. While the Jays blogosphere in general is trying to come to terms with the idea that we’ll be looking at scrubs and castoffs coming back, the reality is a little different. The team trading for Doc gets the best pitcher in baseball for a year at below value, as well as the window to discuss a long term extension, and failing that, a pair of high level draft picks when he leaves. I know a lot of fans may not believe it, but that is well worth a top level prospect, no matter how talented. Deals suggesting Ian Kennedy and Brett Gardner as a legitimate return for Halladay are as ignorant as they are stupid. Any offer that is not offering an impact prospect at the core of the deal isn’t to be taken seriously.

For Jays fans, the ideal solution would be losing Doc to a National League team, but the reality is that there’s only one ‘must not’ team on the trade list, and that is Boston. As much as the idea of Halladay in pinstripes makes me vomit in my mouth, the Yankees will be as formidable next year with or without him. The only realistic outlook right now is that the Jays are playing for second place, and will be for a while. However, Halladay in Boston turns the Red Sox into another untouchable team, right when the cracks are starting to appear. Lowell and Ortiz are turning into offensive questions, they’ll be carrying a lame duck back up catcher, and they have holes at short, second (if Pedroria shifts over) and in left field. They have a stable trio of starters, and a very consistent fifth man in their rotation. Halladay-Beckett-Lester would become the most difficult series match up in baseball. Enough to at least keep them in the hunt against New York’s bats for the post season, and block the Jays from the wild card.

So, the most attractive teams interested would be the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Angels. Most other rumoured clubs either lack the financial position to make a serious push, are not defacto contenders next year, or don’t have the pieces to make a deal.

That would mean any deal with these teams would likely be built around Billingsley, Montaro, Drebrak, and Bourjas respectively. Assuming one of these teams uncovers the key element, Halladay would likely be willing to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause, moving on from Toronto. Depending on what comes back, it’s safe to assume any of these trades will involve an arm ready for the rotation. With Marcum returning, the Jays are in the position to look at signing a veteran from either the inning eating mid-rotation section or the high risk, high upside section. With a core of young arms like Cecil, Mills, Rep, Stewart, and Ray floating around the system, the potential returns of McGowan and Litsch, and the chance for re-emergence of Richmond and Purcey, the Jays have solid pitching depth to make some moves.

Randy Wolf, John Garland, and Jerrod Washburn would all be good fits into a Toronto rotation, bringing some veteran presence as well as decent arms. None of these guys projects past a number three starter in the AL East at best, but all three can throw a lot of innings, and all are solid control pitchers. Any of them would be worth a multi-year contract as an anchor for the rotation and the bullpen.

In the high risk, high reward camp, we have Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Kelvim Escobar. Each of them is capable of having a premium season (even despite Escobar’s age) and are dominant pitches when healthy. The trouble with all of them is that they very rarely are, and age is starting to catch up to the wear and tear. Signing any of them to a one year incentive laden contract represents a possible staff ace or a guy who doesn’t last through Spring Training.

If you’re moving Doc, you want to look at stop gaps that will give you the possibility of a contending season, or acquiring pieces now that you expect to produce in 2012. A good move would be to see if the Pirates are willing to trade for Doumit, and the best trade would come if Overbay and a prospect pitcher was enough to make it happen, even if the Jays ate the bulk of his salary. The Pirates need a first baseman, their offense is anemic, and Overbay’s tools would make a very nice fit for their team, especially if they were only on the hook for a couple of million. Doumit gives us a good young starting catcher with a high possible upside and at worst, a steady presence while we play another year’s worth of ‘will Arenciba/Jerolman be ready?'

With 1B open, you run a sort of twisted platoon between Ruiz, Dopirak and Lind, with Ruiz and Dopirak trading off first, and Ruiz slotting into DH when Lind takes a spell into LF. Give Dopirak and Ruiz 400AB at the major league level to see if they are legitimately ready. If Ruiz can perform the entire year like he did in the fall, the Jays have a cheap, powerful bat to bank on in 2011-2012. Likewise, if Dopirak can put everything together, another piece is in place, leaving the Jays nicely positioned to deal with a stronger crop of FAs in 2010-2011, in order to field a serious threat.

This team only has a very outside shot at the wild card. It would need Doumit to hit like he did in 2008, Ruiz and Dopirak to thrive as fulltime players, Wells to return to form, the rookies to be solid and their pitching returns from the trade and FA signing to have very solid years. It's a team of a lot of potential, which could as easily turn into a sixty-five win team as it could be a ninety win team.

Next, Possibility Two: Doc’s Last Stand…

Trading Doc

Like many Jays bloggers, the appalling fall from grace and the agony of waiting out the fate of Roy Halladay has sucked all the literary will from my normal joy of pontificating on the fortunes of the team. The biggest problem hasn't even been that the Jays have been bad. It's more that the Jays seem destined to tank that big hit or key out that has decided most of the games this month.

The awful July record is even more dismaying when you consider the fact that it hasn't been getting blown out by opponents. It is the steady stream of games lost by a single run, where the Jays have been in the position to take the win, only to fall short time after time. The fluke nature of some of the wins, like Ichiro dropping the head of the bat on a pitch he was obviously fooled by, and blooping it over Scutaro's head, have been the gut wrenching narratives that this punishing month has left us with. Game we could have won; games we should have won.

Then, the idea of trading the Doc.

Now, from a strictly objective perspective, trading Doc at this point is likely the smartest thing the Jays could do. A solid 3B prospect, a couple of pitchers, and a catcher would fill some holes in the farm system, and give the Jays a solid core for 2012-2014. It would also clear 15mil from the payroll, which could be used to offset Wells' raise next year.

But, being a fan is by nature waiving objectivity when considering such a deal. Halladay is the defacto face of the franchise. More than that, the nature of the man fits both the Toronto and Canadian images of our self-identity so perfectly; modest, hard-working, dedicated, loyal, and generous. The quality of his arm is matched with his old school endurance, ability to finish games, and his utterly disciplined work ethic. Off the field, he's a regular fixture in the team's charity work. His wife is a strong supporter of the city. There's never been a hint of controversy surrounding Doc; his image that of the honest, uncompromised player in a league that has been hobbled with dishonest men and performance enhancing drugs. Boston's famed 'Curse of the Bambino' fell largely due to two sluggers positively testing for PEDs during the season before, and Hank Aaron's home run record, one of the most treasured records in sports, was shattered by a man so obviously the benefactor of the best steroids money can buy that it was met with mockery and scorn.

In many ways, Doc represents a link to baseball for the Canadian fan, most of whom grew up with the Jays appearing at some point to balance the Expos as 'home' teams for the country. Unlike the United States 'faith of 50 million' baseball culture, Canadian heroes came from the rink instead of the diamond. It was often hard to feel the connection to the kind of legacy that one baseball possesses; that flawed, intriguing and engrossing history which ties fans and players to the past more closely than any other sport. We don't have a Ted Williams to step out on his 70th birthday to remind us of what came before. Or Yogi Berra as a link to the greatness our fathers and grandfathers watched. As a still young franchise in a country in which the sport is at best a second option, Canadian baseball fans have sometimes struggled for identity. And then came the Doc.

It is hard not to wax rhapsodic about Halladay, and equally difficult not to compare him to the greats of old. In Halladay, we have the kind of starter that hasn't existed in baseball in two decades. A workhorse who wants to finish his own work. A former fireballer that decided control and contact were more valuable than the strike-out. A fast worker, blissfully free of time consuming antics on the mound, and displays of ego-stroking anger. An intensity during game day in his face that mirrors the classic visage of Bob Gibson. A professional work ethic, proud of his craft and taking nothing for granted. A role model in an age of flawed heroes, maintaining his integrity in the field and his generosity with children off of it. An old school pitcher that seems to have stepped out of an earlier time, taking on the modern baseball world.

Baseball, uniquely, is tied to its early days very closely. One can look at the career of a Peewee Reese and wonder how he'd fare in today's games, or make statistical comparisons between pitchers over a century. The popularity of games and fantasy programs that offer the ability to mix and match with current and past players are extremely popular amoungst fans. As a sport, baseball lives in its past as much as it does in the current time, and Halladay speaks to us in both ways.

Expositional handjobs aside, Halladay's worth to Toronto does extend past his talent. He's become iconic to the Jays in a way that few players have even approached in the franchise's history. Losing him would require a re-invention in the very way the Jays are viewed and interact with their fans.

Dazed and Confused

The Blue Jays road trip resembles a boxer suddenly forced to dummy up and try to rope-a-dope his way out of a vicious beating, hoping for a mistake to exploit and get himself out of the round. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened for the Jays, allowing even the misbegotten Orioles to pummel the bullpen into coughing up a five run lead for Halladay on the way to a 12-10 loss.

For the first time since he came on board, Cito Gaston is starting to draw criticism for his use of the bullpen by the media, and hot starts by Hill and Lind have not been picked up by slower starters like Wells and Rios. Alex especially, after looking like he'd been on the verge of rediscovering his power and contact, has completely backslid during the road trip. His complex swing now resembles a tumbling accordion, and he's been chasing Vernon's old nemesis, the high fastball, with nothing to show for it.

Well's RISP woes continue, although he hasn't been swinging the bat badly. In fact, the entire club has just been unable to find that big hit in ballgames, wasting opportunity after opportunity against weak pitchers and lame bullpens. The club has tumbled all the way to third in the standings, and now it is possible Downs might be looking at the DL for a strained hamstring.

However, all is not lost. Despite a nine-game losing skid, the Jays are only two games back of Boston, which is a tremendous statement about how strong this club was coming into the streak. Other than the RISP results, the Jays haven't played badly, even haven't pitched or hit that badly. The key is the lack of extra base hits and hits with RISP that has allowed weaker clubs to edge us. The bullpen has been very weak during the trip, and needs some rest to reset itself. I'd be surprised if Accardo isn't called up very soon to help anchor them.

Three games against the Bosox this weekend. If the Jays can bounce back, it's entirely possible we could start to reverse some of the damage, and climb a few games up to first again.

Back to May 2008

Robert Ray, praying for it to end quickly and painlessly.

The Jays found themselves on the wrong end of a sweep tonight, at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The most unfortunate part about it is, with their other series lost to New York, the mindless braying about the Blue Jays being unable to compete against the AL East is now extended likely all the way to the All-Star Break.

To be honest, in the series against the Bosox, the Jays looked snakebitten. Tallet pitched a gem against Boston, mostly shutting them down, only to have Wakefield have one of his on nights when his knuckleball is all but unhittable for any kind of power. Then the Jays drill Penny all over the park, but can't find the gaps or the fences, while Cecil has one of the most impressive pitching meltdowns since the good old days of Josh Towers. Finally, Lester get batted around, but in each inning, the Jays can't find a way to cash home baserunners, and we lose 5-1 with a not so good outing by Ray.

Not being able to hit once we have men in scoring position? It looked like a little trip on the wayback machine to May 2008.

In all honesty though, while the losses hurt, it's not as bad as it could be. The Jays were only blown out in one game, and the red Sox bullpen nearly gave it back up to us. Games one and three were games the Jays could (and argubly should) have won, but our hitting jammed up. It's possible that the pressure of the series had the Jays trying too hard, and in the case of both Cecil and Ray, they each had a bad inning that did them in.

The positive is that the Jays are still hitting, although the power wasn't there in Boston. It's quite a feat to put up 11 hits and only have a run to show for it. Or 14 the night before for only 3 runs. In fact, despite being outscored 15-5 on the series, the Jays outhit the Bosox 30-29. As much as I hit to say it, sometimes, you just have bad luck. It's a little worrisome about the lack of extrabase hits during the series, but the Jays are making good contact, and the Sox matched up a veteran knuckleballer, a legitimate number two starter, and their ace young lefty against a reliever, a AAA prospect, and a AA prospect. This does not fill me with dread for the future.

Lunchbox has been sent down to AAA, as expected, while the Jays roll into Atlanta for the utterly worthless spectacle of interleague play. I'm kind of excited about hearing Bobby Cox get interviewed by Jerry Howarth about the 80s Jays, but gamewise, I couldn't be more disinterested. There is noise that Russ Adams might be called up, for the left-handed bat and his strong performance so far in Las Vegas. My guess would be that Snider will be down mostly to correct his swing a bit, and give him a boost to come back up. You'd hope that would be in time for the series against Boston at home, assuming that he stops swinging at outside breaking balls. Over his last ten games, he's hit .269, with only one extra base hit and ten Ks, which is really scuffling at the plate.

It's very possible we'll see Ray or Cecil sent down soon, to make way for Janssen. Both pitchers have certainly impressed the Jays, but there's no point in chewing up service time when they're getting hit. Possibly Ray will have his start against Baltimore, and Cecil will need to have a second bad outing to head up going back down, but Janssen is a veteran presence, and his numbers are too good in AAA to bolster a rookie ahead of him.

Halladay MD

"New case. You have Mark Teixiera at the plate, one and two, and you've just thrown a sinker away that missed for a ball. There's a man on second with some decent speed. Romaro?"

"Could throw a slider away, see if he'll chase?"

"You're now two and two on him. Litsch?"

"Come inside with a two seamer?"

"Double to right field, with Alex Rodriguez coming to the plate. Ray?"

"Breaking ball, low and inside."

"The game is 3-2 with Teixiera's eight home run. You throw that, the Yankees owe you a check from their front office. Tallet?"

"Come in high on his hands, see about getting a bad swing, and back him off the plate a bit for a slider low on the corner at two and two if he doesn't bite."

"You're a lefty, so that one might work. Teixiera's got good bat speed though, so if you miss even a little, he's doubling it down the line. Cecil?"

"Same as Brian, but I throw the change two and two, get him out front on it."

"Nope. The change gets slapped into right for a single, Damon comes around to score unless Rios hits Barajas exactly. Richmond?"

"I'd backdoor the slider, because if he swings, unless he can dig it out, it's on the ground for Rolen or Scutaro to field. But you wouldn't do that."

"No? Why?"

"Because you want to know what you should throw, which is the cutter that Teixiera won't be able to pull the trigger on."

"Very good."

Roy Halladay very obviously outduelled AJ Burnett in front of a huge and raucous crowd in Toronto. The Doc needed only 103 pitches to hold the Yankees to five hits and a single run, fanning five along the way in what almost seemed to be another day at the office for him. Burnett was very good in the early innings, his curveball vicious, biting the corners. However, a couple of walks in between two doubles buried him, and Hill hammered a long home run in the eighth to decide the outcome of the much-anticipated matchup.

Obviously, Halladay is still the master.

The Yankees Are Coming

The showdown is finally happening. I don’t speak of the impending Halladay/Burnett matchup, or the first game against the New York Yankees this year. The matchup is between the Jays claims to legitimacy as a contenting team and their first game against a division opponent that the press takes seriously. Despite that only Tampa Bay has a lopsided record against the Blue Jays, the general opinion by the fans and the press is that Boston, Tampa Bay and New York represent truly legitimate contenders in the AL East, and Toronto will sink down into its tradition mire of slow starts to be scrabbling to stay above .500 at the All-Star Break.

Of course, there are those who believe that maybe this isn’t as cut and dried as one might think, and this series against New York will instead show baseball that Toronto isn’t going to be dragged behind the pack this year. Granted, it is us who will likely be disappointed at the end of the year, but to hell with it. Burying the Yankees with a sweep will cause blood to run from the eyes of New York fans, shredding the veneer of hope that their collection of mercenaries, prima donnas, douchebags and overhyped prospects will be a factor in September.

The Yankees will be trotting out their marquee lineup of pitchers for the series, whose combined salaries exceed the GNP of most African nations. A.J Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia may only have one full first name between them, but they represent the only stable part of the Yankees rotation. Burnett started strong and has been waning recently, while Sabathia is the exact opposite, seemingly finding his groove with a four hit shut out of Baltimore last time up. Pettitte, their fifth starter, has been consistently mediocre, which has been considered a blessing in the wake of injuries and inconsistencies with Joba, Hughes and Wang.

The Jays will counter with the ever-intimidating Halladay, and if you believe the New York blogs, a pair of former hotel employees stuffed into uniforms and wheeled out to be crushed under the billion dollar bats of the Yankees. That works for me, since dismissing Richmond and Tallet is a wonderful way to set up a nastier fall. The Jays should handle Burnett well. They have a dangerous lineup against right handers with a ton of power, and the team knows AJ inside and out. Attempting to blast a fastball past Lind just because you’re pissed about the umpire’s last call is a good way to deposit it into the second deck.

While the return of A-Rod to the lineup will bolster the Yankees offense, Richmond has been death on righties this year, and his slider keeps the ball on the ground for his defense. The Yankees are a long ball team, a lot of free swingers which will hopefully play to Richmond’s strengths. Pettitte was 1-2 against the Jays last year, with an ERA of 5.13 and a WHIP of 1.29. As Wilner pointed out, if you subtract Tallet’s one bad start verses Kansas City, his line is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.92.

Now, you might say that subtracting that start is fiddling with the numbers for a positive result to make him look better matched against one of the mostly highed regarded pitchers in the game. Very true, but the point that has been made is that the Jays have been playing against weak teams. Thus, Tallet’s one loss to one of the worst offenses in the Majors should be considered an outlier, since it directly goes against the established wisdom of the season. Fun with numbers time, kids!

Ultimately, if the Jays are a fluke this year, it won’t be proved by getting crushed by the AL East. It will come from our tradition of matching up very well against our division rivals, and then getting killed in godawful roadtrips to Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago and Cleveland. Simply put, contending teams find ways to win series and avoiding stacking up losing streaks. Non-contending teams have good months, good roadtrips, and give the gains back the very next series against a team they should be overmatching. Right now, the latter describes the New York Yankees.

Come Back Down To Earth

With the Jays off to a torrid start, kicking the hell out of the AL Central and West, winning our franchise high six straight series, most of the pundits and nay-sayers have been quick to point out that this is all just meaningless because the Blue Jays have yet to face the Beasts of the East in their own league, and that will quickly return the Jays to the expected preseason predicted performance.

There’s already been a lot of discussion in the Jays blogosphere about the fact that the Jays are a fundamentally sound ball club, and that a regression like 2008 is very unlikely. But that’s about applying logic to looking at a ball club, as opposed to fantasy style statistical minutiae. I’m surprised that no one has considered another big reason why the Blue Jays aren’t likely to simply flameout against their Eastern rivals; their previous season records.

In the last three years, the Toronto Blue Jays record against the East is:

2008: 37 – 35
2007: 36 – 36
2006: 43 – 31

What has killed the Blue Jays every year has not been the big matchups against Boston and New York, although Tampa Bay even when weak proved a troublesome competitor. It was the weak teams in the Central and West like the A’s, the Rangers and the Royals that we’d be swept by, ultimately costing us that margin of victory for the Wild Card or first place.

If the Jays can bring a winning record against the AL East in May, historically, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t stand. Even just looking at the teams, none of the East have rotations that they should feel comfortable with, and are dealing with key injuries and troubles.

So enjoy the ride. There’s every reason to believe that it’s not going to end as abruptly as the pundits may think.

Tallet Magnums the Sox

Brian Tallet has called on the power of his Magnum PI styled facial hair, digging down deep into the hairy machismo mojo to dominate a powerful Chicago lineup by giving up only four hits and no runs over 5.2 innings pitched. Tallet was sharp on the mound, getting out of several tight situations with strikeouts, and having some defensive excellence from Snider and Rolen to back him up.

Tallet's WHIP of 1.03 shows a lot of confidence in challenging hitters, and using both location and changing speeds to throw them off balance and get key outs. Not that anyone needs to be all that good when spotted with 14 runs.

Tallet was also helped by the fact that Chicago's defense was essentially a sieve tonight, capped by Alexei Ramirez utter inability to make any kind of effective play from short. Ramirez' imitation of a puppet with his strings cut helped the Jays to three runs in the first, and several other key opportunities to act as the Jays tenth man in the lineup against Gavin Floyd.

Considering the state of the Jays rotation, the ability of the Jays young pitchers to get outs and eat up innings is beyond what could have been expected. Even with Litsch and Purcey's first two starts being so weak, the Jays have still battled back and made their record as an all over effort by the team.

And Tom Selleck's mustache.

Two Weeks Of Hope

To the amazement of all, the Toronto Blue Jays have come out of the gates with a big club swinging, and have ground up the elite collection of shitballers that the Tigers, Indians, and Twins call their starting rotations. Granted that they aren't exactly facing a cast of Cy Young contenders (except for Cliff Lee, who is doing everything possible to prove right the nay-sayers from last year who pointed out that his numbers were inflated by playing the bulk of his games against crappy hitting lineups), it is still nice to watch the kind of offense that was expected last year from the Jays finally catch up with them.

The Jays offense ranks first or second in the AL in seven offensive categories, powered by efforts up and down the lineup. Aaron Hill has come back from his shortened 2008 season to monster his way through the first ten games, while his Bosox counterpart and AL MVP Dustin Pedoria is hitting a ferocious OPS+ of 36. Lind came out of the gate with a big showing, racking up 12 RBIs and tying a Jays record, while Travis Snider, Scott Rolan, and Vernon Wells have been playing long ball against the AL Central.

Our pitching hasn't exactly been as stellar, now losing Jesse Litsch for at least four to six weeks. However, Ricky Romaro has put forward two excellent outings, Richmond made up for a walk filled disaster against the Indians by shutting the Twins down in his second start, only giving up a single earned run. Halladay is classically Halladay, save for one bad inning during Opening Day. Purcey has been touched, and has struggled with his control, but has also been punching out batters at the clip he's been expected to make. While the bullpen will certainly regress some this year, it has been relatively stable, and taking advantage of the offensive riches to work out the kinks.

After ten games, the Jays sit in first in the AL East. Hardly likely that they'll stay there, but cracks have been appearing the monsters of the East that may give us some hope. The Yankees are watching age finally start to cripple their favourite stars, and Nady is likely out for the season. It's sad when Nick Swisher is the reason to hope for a win for your ballclub. The Bosox have been similarly struck, with Mike Lowell and David Ortiz starting very slowly at the plate.

The general theme around Toronto is that this is unsustainable. Well, sure, an .800 winning percentage isn't likely to be carried into September, but I think people are missing the point when they are assuming that unsustainable means the Jays will regress back to 2008. As virtually every Jays blog has pointed out, and Mike Wilner seems ready to tattoo on the forehead of the next hockey douche that calls in with some ignorant rant, the Jays in 2008, even following Gaston's return, still hugely underperformed offensively from what should have been even average production. The Jays were so far below their career averages from virtually the entire team that you had to expect them to be stronger offensively just out of basic numbers. Unless the team as a whole went sharply into decline, we were due better hitting.

So certainly the Jays won't sustain this streak, but that doesn't mean they are going to suddenly start dropping series after series on the road. If anything has been proven in the first two weeks, it's that the celebrated big teams of the AL East are mortal, and that rather than looking at the Jays lineup in terms of talent, everyone who consigned them to 5th place focused on their performance in 2008 alone. As shaky as the Jays rotation is, most of their competition isn't looking particularly stable either. With our average offense, we should still be able to stay in games, even if it involves working the bullpen more. That will be what decides all those one run games that we lost last year in the future.

Reasons to Support Cito

“Well, I wouldn’t doubt that,” Gaston said. “He’s an asshole himself. A complete asshole. I will say that out loud, right in his face. It’s all about him. Nobody else but him. I wouldn’t doubt that at all.”

***

Gaston heard of Clemens’ complaint about Hentgen second-hand. Had Clemens voiced his complaint directly, Gaston vows “one of us would have had a whooping that day. It might have been me, but he would have known I was there.”

I would like to point out that I would pay good money to watch Cito fuck up Clemens fat, out of shape, douchebag body at a Flashback Friday. I'd even come early for the bobblehead of it happening.

Spring Training Fortune Telling

I have to be honest. The trouble with Spring Training is essentially that all it can be is a hazy vague idea of what a team might have. It would be hard to imagine Russ Adams, Jason Lane, and Brad Emaus are ready to translate being offensive juggernauts into the regular season, after all. So the best you can do is try to watch, follow along, and look for some indicators that largely reinforce your own conclusions before the regular season makes them look ridiculously naive and stupid.

Spring does make me cheery.

However, now that we're starting to get closer to the season, and the teams in spring are looking less like the results of a 'play with a Major Leaguer' contest, some things are finally shaping up, including the big questions about the bench and the rotation.

Michael Barrett seems to have finally gotten enough at bats in to find his swing, and the veteran catcher seems to be coming around at the plate. In his last five games, he's gone 5 for 12, hitting .416 with three doubles and 4 RBIs. While his slow start gave Chavez the chance for a serious look, he's never hit for power or for average in his career. Considering the push on getting Arencibia and Jeroloman at least a taste of AAA and major league pitching, the Jays will likely take a chance that Barrett can bring some of his former power to the plate in the fifty odd games they'll need, and in the event of Barajas going down, provide the same kind of veteran support if one of the prospects comes up at the backup. Worst case scenario is that Barrett fizzles completely, and Thigpen gets a couple dozen starts behind the dish before bringing up either prospects.

The rest of the bench is a little more fluid. Like many people in the Jays Blogosphere, I've been wondering about the reason for paying 2.5mil for Jose Bautista. While the Jays certainly love his versatility, being able to play a half dozen positions not terribly well, he's hardly an offensive upgrade anywhere. He does have some power, but not enough to justify having power hitter like metrics in strikeouts and average. His price tag as a utility player is difficult to justify, and while he's hitting the ball well in spring, I don't really see his numbers making a stronger case for him in the regular season than, say, Lane or Emaus. Also, he's shown little of the power that in theory justifies him as a first off the bench option.

Fortunately, arbitration might end up having made sense, since the Astros are reportedly looking at Bautista. Moving some of his salary will give the Jays some financial flexibility, and maybe finding a decent hidden gem in a trade as always a possibility. (Hillenbrand for Accardo, for example)

Based on comments by the front office and Cito, it looks like for right now, they are comfortable with a bench of McDonald, Millar, Bautista, and Barrett. If they move Bautista, Voodoo Joe Inglett would seem to be the next in line. However, Lane and even, god help us, Adams aren't entirely out of the mix. Adams looks a little like Bautista this spring, hitting the hell out of the ball, and switching between mediocre to terrible in the field. Lane's biggest challenge is trying to convince people he's finally figured how to hit and they should ignore the last three years of his career. However, if Millar goes into the tank and Lane continues his hot streak to the end of the spring, the Jays could decide to take a gamble.

The rotation is where all the focus has been of late, and for now, it looks like the picture is getting clearer. With Janssen likely to either not break camp with the time, or start in the bullpen for now, Richmond and Mills look like the likely contenders for the two remaining spots. Clement pitched an absolutely terrible game against the Twins, getting shelled but more importantly, walking seven batters over four innings. In just over ten innings pitched, Clement has walked 12 batters, and only struck out 5, showing real difficulty finding the edges of the plate, and being unwilling to commit to throwing strikes and trying to induce contact. I personally think that he'd be wise to spend time in AAA, since I'd be amazed if Mills success this spring translates into the majors yet. However, more likely he'll try and find another team rather than start in the minors.

A rotation of Halladay-Litsch-Purcey-Richmond-Mills isn't completely terrifying, but it has an awful lots of 'ifs' attached to it, especially if Janssen isn't available as a starter, and if McGowan isn't going to be seen until July or so. Fortunately, the Jays once again appear to have an excess of strong arms in the bullpen, and some unlikely hurlers like Camp and Hayhurst have shown impressive work in limited innings this spring.

In all though, this is still basically dressing up knowing fuck all into rationales and waiting for opening day to arrive and determine the real outcomes. That is what I hate about Spring Training.

Snakebit

So, it starts. Both Scott Downs and Mike Maroth have been knocked out of training for the next few days. Maroth's left knee decided that even he couldn't support such a shitty pitcher and gave up during a workout. Downs, unfortunately, has hit stiffness in the same elbow which he had Tommy John surgery on.

Last year, Downs really hit a rough patch coming down the stretch in last August and September, posting an ERA of 5 from Aug 30th to Sept 13th, with the opposition nearly hitting .300 against him. The most worrying part was his lack of control, running up 6BB over just 9 innings pitched, as well as a couple of hit batters thrown on top of that.

Downs' sinker, slider, curve combination relies on the whipping motion on his elbow to get enough rotation on the ball so it will break sharply. By the end of last season, he was far from getting the movement on the ball he intended, which was a feast for opposing hitters, as he regularly missed his spots, or hung pitches in the zone.

The MRI revealed nothing, which doesn't mean it's time to expect Snakeface to be dustbinned yet for 2009. Assuming Ricciardi can be trusted, the official word was:

"Downs had a little twinge in his elbow," Ricciardi said. "Everything was good. It was a good MRI, but when they inject you with the dye, it takes five to six days -- some people a little longer -- to get the dye out. He's getting closer to getting it out, but I'd say in the next four or five days, he'll be throwing."

If the worst happens and we lose Downs, it will effect the entire pitching staff, including the starting rotation. Without Downs, Tallet and Carlson start as your left handed options for setup men, and it's very possible that Janssen will be moved back to the bullpen to serve as mid-relief in order to save them both in situations that you'd normally use a lefty earlier in the game. While the bullpen is the one place the Jays have plenty of depth to survive an injury, Downs was a linchpin last year for the Jays. Losing him even for a few months will significantly increase the pressure for the relief corp.

Broken Man on a Halifax Pier

Curtis 'Wait, He's White?' Thigpen has gotten his dreaded DFA notice, indicating that in all likelihood, Michael Barrett will be the leading candidate for the backup catchers spot leading into the 2009. Thigpen, who only two years ago was considered Toronto's catcher of the future, endured both 2006 and 2007 unable to hit the damn ball with any consistancy. For a player who worked his way up the organization largely due to his offensive skills, the sudden inability to make contact saw him first leapfrogged by other propects, and finally offered up to the world. Due to Thigpen's youth and flexibility, it's unlikely that he won't find some interest by another system's minor league pool, but his days in Toronto have gone the way of Russ Adams.

While many people have floated the idea that one of our celebrated prospects like Arencibia or Jeroloman might make the backup role out of Spring Training, it seems unlikely that for a ballclub with an eye towards 2010, they'd rush either prospect to the bigs from AAA. Most likely, both will be looked at as either September call-ups, or injury replacements at most, for some seasoning. That leaves Michael Barrett the only likely candidate for the backup catching role.

Barrett is a player that always made me wonder why there was so little confidence in his abilities. Despite the fact that punching out his teammates seems to be his primary source of entertainment (when not kicking the shit out of A.J Pierzynski, a service which deserves a medal), Barrett has been a very solid offensive and defensive catcher through his career. The fact that he was picked up for a minor league contract shows a real lack of confidence in his abilities, which likely stem from his numerous injuries.

It reminds me, in a way, of how baseball pundits used to refer to Halladay being injury prone, as if getting his leg broken from a line drive is somehow related to his pitching or conditioning. Most of Barrett's injuries have been freak accidents; a broken index finger, foul ball to the face, bruised balls (sorry, 'intrascrotal hematoma'). Looking around at a number of ballclubs very shallow in their catching pool, it's surprising that the Jays would get Barrett for virtually nothing.

Barrett and Barajas are an interesting tandam. Both are considered excellent defensively, with identical FPs of .992 in their careers. Barrett is historically the superior offensive player, which begs the question of how the two righthanded catchers will be played by Gaston.

Barajas: .241/.289/.409 OPS+ 77
Barrett: .264/.320/.422 OPS+ 89

Assuming Barrett can avoid injury and rebound to his normal production, it's possible we'll see another usurpment of the starting catcher role this year.

Your Future Rotation: Part Eight

If there's anything that helps fuel the sense of bleak desperation leading into 2009, it's the fact that the Jays have signed Mike Maroth to a minor league contract. Unlike Matt Clement, who was a very effective starter prior to his injuries and has the potential, however slight, to rebound to middle of the rotation effectiveness, Maroth doesn't even come close. The Josh Towers of the Detroit Tigers, Maroth's career has been littered with control issues and a tendency to give opposing teams runs better than the ropa vieja stand outside of Dunedin Stadium.

Maroth brings a career ERA of 5.05 and WHIP of 1.46 to the Jays. To continue the Josh Towers comparison, that's about ten points higher in both areas than Towers career numbers, which does not inspire a great deal of confidence about his abilities. Prior to his injuries in 2006, Maroth did eat a lot of innings, which is likely the motivation behind this signing, to provide some AAA depth and maybe give some of the real prospects like Mills, Cecil and Romero someone who can provide some experience about what it's like to get shelled in the majors.

Maroth brings four pitches to the mound; a four seam fastball that hovers in the high 80s, a cutter, a curveball and a decent changeup that he uses for an out pitch. Maroth is successful when he works the edges of the plater, but as a result, his walk rate is higher than you want from a control pitcher, and he is very susceptible to the home run. When he can get ahead in the count early, his changeup and cutter can be tough on right handed batters. But he's got a tendency to hang pitches later in the count, especially when behind, which is why he's been so feasted on by AL batters.

Obviously Maroth is not meant to be anything other than insurance in case of a total implosion, so the Jays are forced to use top pitching prospects to plug the gaps. There's an outside chance that if Maroth can imitate Parrish's 2008 in the minors that he might see some spot starts during the season. While he's not good, he does have some experience with the league's lineups, and taking all that into account, might get a handful of starts to see if a possible strong AAA season translates into anything more. Most likely Maroth will show the same shitacular stuff in the minors, and end up getting cut by the end of the season.

There is one bright spot to this signing; Maroth's wife is seriously hot. Word to the wise, Mike. Update your badly out of date website with a pay section for private webcam parties for the missus, since I doubt that minor league paycheck is going to last very long.

Your Future Rotation: Part Seven

Ricky Romero has the misfortune to now be tied in with what many fans believe to be J.P. Ricciardi biggest blunder. After the Jays miserable 2004, Ricciadri used his first round draft pick in 2005 to take Romero sixth overall. That was ahead of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Garza. Romero's lack of consistency in the minors has increased the demands to see him finally produce some value for the club.

Romero throws four pitches, a fastball, curveball, changeup and cutter. None of his pitches are particularly notable, and he relies on control and location to strike out batters. He's been working on a four seam changeup as well, which hasn't really shown up on the radar yet. The problem has been that control, giving up a lot of walks; 75BB between Double A and Triple A combined in 2008. With allowing that many baserunners, Romero's ERA ballooned to just a hair under 5 in AA, and a WHIP of 1.59.

The bright spot of 2008 was not only a relatively healthy year following the injuries in 2007, but also over 164 innings pitched over both levels. On his promotion to AAA Syracuse, Romero seemed to have taken some steps forward in his pitching. In seven games, he managed to increase his K/9 to 8.02, reduce his ERA and WHIP to 3.38 and 1.45 respectively. He actually gave up fewer hits than he did walks, but still, it shows at least the potential for effectiveness.

Romero is very unlikely to pick up one of the rotation spots out of spring training, but remains at least a distant possibility. Most likely, the Jays will see if he can build on his success in AAA, and establish some kind of consistency there first. His ceiling isn't considered to be very high; a middle of the rotation guy at best, and without an effective out pitch, he needs to live and die by location. Unless he can get his walks under control, Romero will end up a AAA+ player, talented, but just lacking the ability to transition to the majors. However, with either a strong spring, or injuries, it's possible that we'll see Romero up as a stop gap starter.

Your Future Rotation: Part Six

Brad Mills, a promising lefty starter in A ball was a 4th round draftee in 2007. He had actually been drafted the year before, but had elected to complete college before entering the minor league system. Mills began 2008 at Low-A Lansing in the Midwest League. In 15 starts, Mills went 6-3, with an ERA of 2.55, a 1.22 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 in 81 1/3 innings. He was promoted to Dunedin and in 6 starts, he was 4-0 with an ERA of 1.15 and 35Ks.

Based on his performance, Mills was promoted to AA New Hampshire, and continued his success there, with an impressive ERA of 1.10. He showed a slight decline in his K rate, but overall, his performance was remarkable consistent between the two levels. He's been effective at limiting home runs, despite a propensity for fly balls. Mills also averaged 5 2/3rd innings over six starts, but those numbers are slightly skewed by a 2 inning start.

Mills isn't considered to be a high ceiling starting prospect, throwing a low-nineties fastball, a curve, and a change up. While both his heater and curve are fairly average, his changeup is an exceptional pitch, with a sinking motion. Mills employs a deceptive delivery, which helps along with his change to disrupt the hitter's timing. His delivery has been especially effective against right-handed hitters, with an average 9K/9 innings.

It's unlikely that Mills will have a real shot at the rotation, unless he explodes out of spring training, or a rash of injuries hits the Jays during the pre-season. However, if Mills continues his success in AAA, it is very likely that he'll see some action during the year, or at the very least, as a September call-up. Mills is very much like Litsch a couple of years ago, considered a low ceiling starter, but certainly has the capacity to surprise people.

Your Future Rotation: Part Five

Casey 'Dirty' Janssen had been the Blue Jays star prospect since they selected him out of UCLA in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. Janssen rose very quickly through the ranks of the organization, destroying A and AA ball, with a minuscule 2.75 ERA over 2005, and a combined 24BB/183K; a 7:1 split between strike outs to walks. Janssen was more human in 2006, being roughed up over nine starts in AAA, but when A.J. Burnett went down with an injury, Janssen was promoted from the Syracuse Chiefs and made his major-league debut against the Baltimore Orioles on April 27, 2006.

In his first major league season, Janssen pitched in 19 games, including 17 starts, and logged 94 innings pitched. He didn't set the world on fire, with a 5.07 ERA and a 2:1 ratio of strike outs to walks. He had the potential to start in 2007, but the needs of the bullpen saw him step into a setup and long relief role, and emerged with a monster season. Logging 72 2/3rds innings out of the bullpen, he posted just a 2.35 ERA, and managed to rein in his tendency to allow home runs and baserunners.

Janssen throws six different pitches, although not consistently: a four-seam fastball in the early 90s, a two-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, a change-up and a slider. None of these qualify as a true 'out pitch', and instead, much of Janssen's success in 2006-2007 was from inducing groundballs and mixing speeds and location to disrupt the hitter's timing. Not likely to return to his strike out days, Janssen lives and dies by his control, something that with runners on base, his focus isn't always iron clad.

Following his surgery for a torn labrum in 2008, there's a huge question mark on whether Janssen will be ready to come back and be effective in 2009. While there is a lot of support for Janssen to return to the bullpen role that he was so effective in during 2007, he was drafted as a starter, and served his first season in that capacity. There's no doubt that he'll come into spring training as a potential starter, and if his shoulder has recovered, the Jays would be comfortable using his experience to fill the role.

Your Future Rotation: Part Four

Scott Richmond, formerly an undrafted free agent signed out of the Edmonton Cracker Cats in the independent Northern League, was picked up by the Jays in 2008, and made his way up into the rotation for five starts between July and the end of the season. Richmond, a Canadian, earned a splash in the media as his promotion to the major league club left him unable to compete for Canada in the Olympics.

A big right-hander (6'5"), Richmond mixes a fastball in the low 90s, changeup, curve, and his out pitch; a tight breaking slider. During his tenure in the minor leagues last year, Richmond threw strikes, posting a minuscule walk rate against his K/9. In 21 starts between double and triple A, Richmond posted an ERA of 4.29, racking up 115K in 121 2/3 innings. He's shown himself to be a bit flyball prone, but his ability to throw strikes has keep the damage limited.

In his five starts in Toronto, Richmond provided a decent fill in for Purcey. He ended up with a 1-3 record, but threw well, with an ERA of 4 and 20 strikeouts. Obviously he will not remain with the same strike out rate, but his control and ability to work the strike zone, he should avoid inflating his walk rate to unacceptable levels.

Richmond isn't considered to have a particularly high ceiling, but much the same was said about Litsch the last two years, and he's foiled expectations. With his ability to throw strikes, and limit unearned baserunners, he's got the potential to do well. If he does strongly in the spring, Richmond would be a contender for a spot in the rotation, potentially as a fill in for McGowan's slot until he comes back from injury, or even in the five slot. There is also the PR advantage of having a Canadian in the rotation, a fact likely not lost on the head office.

Your Future Rotation: Part Three

One of J.P Ricciardi's low risk signings this year, Matt Clement, a former quality starter of the early and mid part of the decade. In 2005, he was one of the most highly sought after starters in the off season, which the Jays had been in on before Boston trumped all other offers. After missing all of 2007 due to extensive shoulder surgery (the surgeon reported that the muscle looked like 'a blown rubber tire'), Clement spent 2008 in the St. Louis Cardinals organization, posting a 3-0 record and 5.23 ERA in 16 games at three different minor-league levels.

The common wisdom around the league is that Clement is done, his career basically over from a shoulder injury that simply could not be recovered from. That is very possible. However, Clement is another of Brad Arnsberg's orphans, and much like Burnett, Arnsberg believes that with the right retooling of his mechanics, Clement presents a possible fit for the Jays rotation.

Clement had a sinking fastball in the low 90s and high 80s slider, along with a four-seamer and a decent sinking changeup. In 2008, his fastball stayed right around 90, and his slider had lost a little speed, touching the mid-80s at times. More than anything else, Clement's control has been an issue. His BB/K ratio has always been around 1:2, and without a quality breaking ball as an out pitch, he'll only be successful if he's able to locate the ball well and use his slider to break the batter's rhythm at the plate.

Discounting 2007, Clement has averaged 190IP each year since his rookie season, and while it's doubtful his shoulder is up for that kind of load, it does show that he's got experience pitching deep into ballgames, an advantage not shared by a number of the Jays other pitching prospect. Unless his shoulder has well and truly gone too far to recover, Clement can likely be considered a top rotation contender if he posts decent numbers in spring, due to his experience and former effectiveness.

I personally think any starter job should be contingent on him losing the douchebag chin beard.

Your Future Rotation: Part Two

Brett Cecil, currently at AAA, was a sandwich draft pick in 2007, originally catching notice as a closer in the University of Maryland. Cecil, a big lefthander with plus speed, was converted to a starting role, and in one year, has vaulted up three levels to end off the season with six respectable starts in Syracuse. Ever since being drafted, Cecil has pitched on a 5 inning limit, to stretch the young lefty out to contend with the starters load, and he finished off last season with 118 2/3rds innings of work.

Cecil brings a low ninties sinking fastball which he locates well, a change that also sinks, and a devastating slider as his out pitch. Unlike many hot prospects, Cecil already has learned to pitch to contact, inducing a high percentage of ground balls and using the slider to strike out batters at all levels at 9.7K/9. In AAA, his K rate remained fairly stable, but his BB jumped sharply. Obviously, the hope is that he's just adjusting to the AAA level, but it might be relying on impatient hitting as opposed to location in limiting walks.

The Jays have been careful with Cecil, which is why he's likely not going to start in the rotation out of spring training, or if so, meant mainly as a limited option until McGowan returns. As good as his stuff is considered to be, and as good as the Jays bullpen is, having a starter penciled in for only five innings in your rotation puts dangerous pressure on your relievers. The last thing the Jays want to is blow out key figures in their biggest strength early in the season.

More likely, Cecil will be used as a regular call up, continuing to stretch him in AAA and work on his control, and bringing him up for a few starts to replace injuries. Considering his abilities, the Jays need to give him a sniff of MLB level play next season, to see what fit he could make as a full time starter in 2010.